ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[MusicCityMan]

If I read that map right, it actually calls for a double landfall since it has to cross over tampa bay before going back on shore..?

[ronjon]

5 Pm track from NHC shows landfall near Venice FL with Fay moving north right up Tampa Bay.

[dixiebreeze]

Fla. gov. declares emergency as storm approachesPublished - Aug 16 2008 03:57PM EDT |

AP
Florida's governor has declared a state of emergency for the state due to the threat of Tropical Storm Fay.

Gov. Charlie Crist says in the order that the storm threatens the state with a "major disaster."

Forecasters warned that Fay could bring hurricane-force winds to the Florida Keys as soon as Monday.


Forecasters said Saturday that the storm could hit as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, with winds perhaps reaching more than 100 mph. But forecasters stressed it was too early to tell how intense the storm would become.

I really didn't know where to put this, but it is an unusually early STate of Emergency.

[Sanibel]

If I read that map right, it actually calls for a double landfall since it has to cross over tampa bay before going back on shore..?

Charlotte Bay. Same area as Charley and Punta Gorda.

[Steve]

Yeah, that's what I see. Hopefully for those in the coastal and floodprone areas, Fay only hits that area - assuming the current forecast would verify which we all know it won't exactly - as a tropical storm. That would be a really tough track for a major - one which potentially impacts several million people.

[xironman]

Looks to me like it is good to shoot the Cuba - Jamaica gap before taking the hard right. Should have a good time over that water.

[ronjon]

If I read that map right, it actually calls for a double landfall since it has to cross over tampa bay before going back on shore..?

Charlotte Bay. Same area as Charley and Punta Gorda.

Sanibel, that's actually Charlotte Harbor and no the track is west of there. Not that it matters much since we shouldn't focus on the line.

[Sanibel]

Not comforting that they haven't veered from a hard side hit of Sanibel over the last 24 hours. It is unusual to have a track that zoned 3 days out.

[hazmat]

personally I think it's a little late for an emergency declaration. Only one way out of the Keys..takes a day for the tourists then a day for residents..that puts us at Mon night.

[Weather Watcher]

Looks like its getting more organized

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_sat.html#a_topad

[JonathanBelles]

Image of the Tampa-St. Pete Metro. The Blue line is the 5pm forecast track. The pin is where I am.

[dixiebreeze]

personally I think it's a little late for an emergency declaration. Only one way out of the Keys..takes a day for the tourists then a day for residents..that puts us at Mon night.

That's very true. In a sidebar story, the Florida National Guard says personnel and equipment is in a very "healthy" status and the guard is prepared.

[lbvbl]

so is the 5pm track basically the same as the 11am? I'm still convinced the GFDL is a possibility

[Sanibel]

It's not a good sign at all that Fay has entrained curvature all the way down to Panama. Shows a good drawing field and southern inflow.

[Jason_B]

They still have it moving due west at 5pm, looks more WNW to me but with it so disorganized I guess that could be an illusion.

[JonathanBelles]

I dont think the declaration could have been any earlier.

[Blown Away]

Don't forget the hurricane shield that is over Tampa, no science I'm just playing the odds a hurricane will not end up there.

[flarrfan]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the NHC is too far east with their track. My five day cone would include the mouth of the Mississippi on the west and the Middle Keys, Florida Bay on the east, with a track line into NW Florida between Pensacola and Panama City. I have no scientific reasoning, only a feeling that the models to this point have not been effectively initialized, and with some exceptions storms on this general track tend to turn more slowly than expected. Unless Fay explodes in intensity while still south of Cuba, I think its track will stay generally left of model guidance for another 24-48 hours, thus putting landfall in the panhandle rather than the peninsula.

[Noles2006]

They still have it moving due west at 5pm, looks more WNW to me but with it so disorganized I guess that could be an illusion.

Closer to W than WNW... recon confirms...

[Jason_B]

Don't forget the hurricane shield that is over Tampa, no science I'm just playing the odds a hurricane will not end up there.

I think I would rather be safe and prepare than to put my faith in a "hurricane shield".