ATL: IKE Discussion

[Brent]

So far Ike appears to be a whole lot weaker then 100mph like the NHC has as its current strength. Highest FL winds are only 57kts with a pressure of about 968mb

968 mb though is close to the estimated(and quite low), and they haven't even sampled most of the storm yet. I suspect it's at least 85-90 mph still.

[fci]

what happened to all of the Florida posters? It's interesting to note that one can quickly parse the active tropics page looking for usernames to quickly see where a storm may be threatening.

In this case I see alot of LA and Texas posters so without even looking at the NHC track, I know where the system may be heading...

Weren't a lot of LA and Texas posters when the cone was pointed squarely at South Florida either.
Nature of the board.
I admit I look at the board a few times a day when there is no threat to my area and almost non-stop when there is.

[Mattie]

Not sure if it's been mentioned here yet or not but TX is currently in their H-120 mode for emergency response.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 708%20(GOV).pdf

Nice to see that even the emergency response coordinators have a sense of humor (that's what gets us through the tough times...) Notice all the mentions of StrIKE in the document

Link didn't work for me -

After I opened your message to respond, I saw the total link and pasted in my browser and I got it to work. Might try this: ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/Hurricane%20Ike%20SITREP%201%20090708%20(GOV).pdf

[HURAKAN]

where is the plane in relation to the storm? near the eye?

So far Ike appears to be a whole lot weaker then 100mph like the NHC has as its current strength. Highest FL winds are only 57kts with a pressure of about 968mb

[cycloneye]

They are looping as being close to land,they cant do the normal alpha pattern.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't w!shcast outside of winter storm situations.

Dolly - people were saying, off of one GFDL run, "Cat 4, Houston", and I said, nope, not gonna happen.

Edouard - I started a thread a couple of days before it became an invest, and I said, high end TS, outside shot of a low end Cat 1, Houston area.

Unless I'm schizophrenic, and wish one away from Houston and wish the next one here.


I like the Canadian Rita-esque solution. Some weather possible HOU area Eastward, but a Louisiana storm.

[deltadog03]

WOW, this is very weak. I am sure they will find some higher winds, but so far its been had over cuba.

[dwg71]

Minimal cat 1 ATM according to RECON, lets see what it does in the next 6 hours or so.

[cycloneye]

I say 65kts.

[dwg71]

RECON finding a minimal cat 1 atm.

[Sanibel]

Expect the warm waters to translate to intensity later tonight.

[CrazyC83]

The highest winds are likely on land right now in the NW quad. I'd say 65-70 kt based on current observations (blend of SFMR and FL plus 10 kt for that guess).

[expat2carib]

I guess recon has a mission that's limited. They can not fly over Cuba including the Cuban islands.

Lots of the system is still over Cuba. So no data from that part.

[KWT]

RECON finding a minimal cat 1 atm.

There'd probably be cat-1 winds over the northern quadrant as well which is a little out of reach of recon...however that sort of profile is what you'd expect with a disrupted core, its just lacking any decent deep convection at the moment.

However still in a better shape then what it'd be if Ike was overland right now.

[Lowpressure]

Recon stating outer wall is better defined than core. This will be interesting to watch.

INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED. OUTER EYEWALL
BETTER DEFINED THAN CORE FEATURE

[wxman57]

I've seen many SFMR readings this year that are much higher than FL winds. Makes me wonder what's up with the SFMR calibration. A FL wind of 63 kts wouldn't support Cat 1 when using the normal reduction.

[dwg71]

VDM shows a 64KT cat 1 base on surface estimate, highest actual recorded winds would equate to about 50KTS at the surface - give or take.

[attallaman]

So with all these posts saying Ike will be TX bound is the C/GOM region now in the clear? The SE/LA and MS/GC region now considered to be in the clear?

[KWT]

Yep lowpressure just like I thought, you can see it obviously on the sat imagery, outer eyewall trying to dominate but Cuba is preventing it, also if the outer eyewall does take over it means Ike will be a much larger system than before.

In other words its going through an extended EWRC, which it started pre-Cuba and it probably won't finish it till post Cuba either, not totally anyway IMO...

[cycloneye]

However still in a better shape then what it'd be if Ike was overland right now.

Agree on that KWT.Imagine if Ike tracked over the spine of Cuba as it was forecast yesterday,It would haved been a weak TD emerging into the GOM.