ATL: IKE Discussion

#5581 Postby **Mattie** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:39 pm

Just an observation - but we have an awful lot of "Quotes" not displaying correctly and it is making the posts hard to read. I think the issue is when someone is quoting multiple posts and the [/quote] ends up getting lost in the cutting and pasting. Just check and be sure your quoted portion of your posts ends with [/quote].

Thanks.

pablolopez26 · #5582 Postby **pablolopez26** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:39 pm

My opinion, and again this is coming from a guy who is not a met, is that Ike can still land anywhere from Matagorda Bay Houston, all the way up to New Iberia La.

If you live anywhere in those area, please by all means listen to your local mets and heed any evac orders given.

I know U of H just sent me this email with this link as a precaution. I didnt get this link when Gustav came...

http://uhemergency.info/go/site/1093/

#5583 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:39 pm

18:00 BEST TRACK downgrades intensity to 70kts.

AL, 09, 2008090818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 792W, 70, 970, HU,

Sabanic · #5584 Postby **Sabanic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:40 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:MS not in the clear yet, follow the cone people:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... y#contents

That is also Mobile, AL

#5585 Postby **mpic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:40 pm

Somebody give me a quick catch up...just got off work. Early this morning there was a chance of a left turn into Mex/S TX...still a possibility?

flounder_gig · #5586 Postby **flounder_gig** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:41 pm

HURAKAN wrote:wxman57, there is the possibility of stronger winds over Cuba since the northern quadrant of the storm is still over land.

probably not... over land. Don't we have access to land obs?

KWT · #5587 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:42 pm

Outer eyewall just can't wrap around the northern part of the center and thats whats weakening Ike right now, in essence it almost hasn't got a total core anyway because both eyewalls probably open...

I doubt we will see any strenghtening now till this is clear of Cuba, even though only slow strengthening given the huge size of the outer eyewall but when it does ramp up, its going to be a monster!

#5588 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:42 pm

70 kt seems about right for this considering the fact the strongest winds are likely on land in the NW quad of outer 60NM eyewall.

The pressure of 970mb also suggests it could get stronger fast once the winds catch up.

sfwx · #5589 Postby **sfwx** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:42 pm

Hurricane Statement
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

.AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TODAY AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES.

#5590 Postby **mpic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:42 pm

I also see the Turks webcam still isn't up...anyone from them yet?

KWT · #5591 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:18:00 BEST TRACK downgrades intensity to 70kts.

AL, 09, 2008090818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 792W, 70, 970, HU,

Yep sounds about right from what recon is reporting back, though that center point doesn't really matter when the center is probably 100 miles across right now!

#5592 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:44 pm

Monday noon update from Jeff Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818584#p1818584

jinftl · #5593 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:45 pm

Sabanic i have to give you credit...i think you are one of the only AL regulars on here and let's face it...your stretch of coastline doesn't get too much attention here. Too often you are lumped in with FL panhandle or the SeLA/MS in talk of risk threat.

Alabama should know that you are doing it proud by making sure its potential impacts are not forgotten.

And I agree...I see no evidence yet that in any way clears the risk to Mobile...bottom line..a storm south and east of you that is expected to head in a west or nw direction should be monitored!

Sabanic wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:MS not in the clear yet, follow the cone people:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.sh ... y#contents

That is also Mobile, AL

Website · #5594 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:47 pm

flounder_gig wrote:67 flight level
90% = 60kts
TS Ike?

That's what the winds are but 970 mb is a very low pressure for that intensity. I'm really shocked there aren't stronger winds somewhere in there.

KWT · #5595 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The pressure of 970mb also suggests it could get stronger fast once the winds catch up.

As long as that inner eyewall hangs on then Ike will probably either weaken or hold steady, the pressure is low but then again its got a huge outer eyewall so that doesn't surprise me all that much.

#5596 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:50 pm

KWT, can you post that he res 1km sat loop we spoke of yesterday, so I can see the two eyewalls?

#5597 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:50 pm

sfwx wrote:Hurricane Statement
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

.AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TODAY AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES.

Kind of funny how this board has written off any threat at all to South Florida, as I have too.
Yet, they still continue to put the bolded text in each advisory.

#5598 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:50 pm

KWT, can you post that hi res 1km sat loop we spoke of yesterday, so I can see the two eyewalls?

Mods- delete multiple post somehow- thanks.

#5599 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:51 pm

You know, fci, I was just thinking the exact same thing. I can't figure out why they keep putting that in there, to be honest, but it does make me wonder.....

ronjon · #5600 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:52 pm

First squall from outer bands affecting keys now.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=byx&loop=yes

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