ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

Quite possibly Sanibel but that burst is a fair way behind any circulation, though any circulation clearly isn't wlel defined apart from the MLC further north.

This is certainly the most active ITCZ I've seen this summer so far!

[FireBird]

Hi folks,
Could someone please tell me exactly WHERE is 94L? I've seen co-ordinates of 12.9N 53W and 11N 55W. I know NHC has the whole area identified but with that big ITCZ burst lying about a day and a half from landfall here in Trinidad - I just want to know where to look. I don't think much will develop at this point but I think that if the system remains weak, it'll keep west, and that could mean a LOT OF RAIN!! We've been having a lot of flooding with normal ITCZ activity, so this is a concern. Grateful for some guidance. Thanks much...

[AtlanticWind]

Hi folks,
Could someone please tell me exactly WHERE is 94L? I've seen co-ordinates of 12.9N 53W and 11N 55W. I know NHC has the whole area identified but with that big ITCZ burst lying about a day and a half from landfall here in Trinidad - I just want to know where to look. I don't think much will develop at this point but I think that if the system remains weak, it'll keep west, and that could mean a LOT OF RAIN!! We've been having a lot of flooding with normal ITCZ activity, so this is a concern. Grateful for some guidance. Thanks much...

22/1145 UTC 13.6N 54.8W T1.0/1.0 94L

[Blown Away]

Hi folks,
Could someone please tell me exactly WHERE is 94L? I've seen co-ordinates of 12.9N 53W and 11N 55W. I know NHC has the whole area identified but with that big ITCZ burst lying about a day and a half from landfall here in Trinidad - I just want to know where to look. I don't think much will develop at this point but I think that if the system remains weak, it'll keep west, and that could mean a LOT OF RAIN!! We've been having a lot of flooding with normal ITCZ activity, so this is a concern. Grateful for some guidance. Thanks much...

22/1145 UTC 13.6N 54.8W T1.0/1.0 94L

1. I definitely see the rotation which is now near 14N/55W as shown on the visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
2. Weather Underground has the 94L models initiated at 11N/55W, and this location shifted SW from the previous models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
3. Seems the best chance for development is up at 14N/55W, at least we have some rotation and convection up there.

[FireBird]

Thanks much guys...

[Recurve]

I know sometimes when people ask where something is, they want to know "In the Atlantic or Caribbean," not what are the center coordinates down to the minute of lat/long.
From 8 a.m.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

But then, there is that great storm2k map above showing all the action.

[HURAKAN]

717
ABNT20 KNHC 221755
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR
KEY FLORIDA.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT
350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[bbadon]

Is the what appears to be MLC forming around 11 North 52 west associated with 94L or is that a seperatre system?

[KWT]

I can't really tell bbadon though it may well end up all getting involved in the same system its hard to say, still if it keeps large like it is don't expect any quick development!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SMALL 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...SEE BELOW.

[KWT]

Looks like they believed any circulation is embedded in the ITCZ burst further west, hard to say what will happen but if it doesn't pick up latitude its going to only go just north of south America which would severely hinder any inflow.

[alienstorm]

If you look at High resolution visible loop you can see the beginning of the low mentioned - I would say at approx 11.7N 53.5W good rotation showing in the last two frames.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-53.0

[cpdaman]

If you look at High resolution visible loop you can see the beginning of the low mentioned - I would say at approx 11.7N 53.5W good rotation showing in the last two frames.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-53.0

i see a distinct turing at 11.5 52.5 and this is outside the orange area on the NHC page - strange


however nw at 14 n 55 i see the turning which is likely described as 94 L

[KWT]

Yep thats does look interesting I can see that circulation, probably only at mid level but we shall see, the thing is there is another mid level circulation further north which is still convecting as well, looks like we've got another system that can't decide its center...again!

Hard to know which one will become the dominant circulation if either.

[cycloneye]

The latest Best Track for 94L:

AL, 94, 2008082218, , BEST, 0, 111N, 560W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ

[cpdaman]

The latest Best Track for 94L:

AL, 94, 2008082218, , BEST, 0, 111N, 560W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ

lol there is nothing there IMO

[KWT]

I can't help but think they are just using the middle point of the large blobs of convection rather then honing on one particular region, probably the best idea till we get a more obvious center...

[gatorcane]

If you look at High resolution visible loop you can see the beginning of the low mentioned - I would say at approx 11.7N 53.5W good rotation showing in the last two frames.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-53.0

i see a distinct turing at 11.5 52.5 and this is outside the orange area on the NHC page - strange


however nw at 14 n 55 i see the turning which is likely described as 94 L

Click this nonJAVA (fast-loading) loop and there is some definite cyclonic turning at 11.5 and 52.5....no technically its not outside of there area. It's moving right into the orange-shaded region.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Note TAFB surface analysis also agrees with this location of cyclonic turning. There is a weak surface low there it appears:


It's moving WNW and already gaining some lattitude so TAFB's 72 hour projection of something moving into the SE Bahamas may not be too far off

[alienstorm]

I believe the thinking here is that there is a whole lot of energy and it will need to consolidate, however, it looks like we are starting to see this process take place slowly. Probably another 24 - 48 hrs before we see any center to target.

[Sanibel]

There's two obvious convection centers. The bigger one to the SE of 94L is new this morning but already looks like it has a separate identity and spin.

Nothing to do but see how it resolves. Obviously a lot of energy down there looking to spin-up.