ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

A lesson we should remember from Katrina is the size and its peak strength is more important to surge then the strength upon landfall.

Also agreed Cuba may get hit very hard, wouldn't be at all surprised if this gets close to the strength Dennis had by that time...thats the sort of strength I think this will reach within the next 48hrs, very fast deepening in a very condusive set-up.

I don't think the size is as much of a problem over very high heat content, its not stoped hurricane like Katrina exploding in the past.

[jasons2k]

Interesting developments. Just when I started to build some confidence in my thoughts (the west bend @ end) the trough digs deeper and throws a wrench in things. Par for the course in the tropics. It's gonna be a long 24 hours, but I've been telling all my friends & family we won't have a good idea of where this is going until Saturday. Although with this scenario, that may be delayed...

[tampastorm]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

[jasons2k]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

The Florida talk is going overboard.

There may be a "temporary" move more to the NNW as Gustav crosses Cuba, but the storm is then going to resume a NW or WNW movement towards most likely LA or possibly the upper Texas Coast around the ridge. The NHC has no mention of this coming towards Tampa although some are interpreting a "temporary" movement to mean that.

There is, of course, still a chance this could impact the Fl Panhandle, but that's it for now.

[KWT]

tampastorm, well the western side of the panhandle is still at risk, I think where you are has about as much chance of being hit as N.Mexico right now. Still would be stupid to totally rule out anywhere but the main focus is still on LA, but the models now shifted to the eastern side of the state and also M.I. nees to watch this as well

[Sabanic]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

The Florida talk is going overboard.

There may be a "temporary" move more to the NNW as Gustav crosses Cuba, but the storm is then going to resume a NW or WNW movement towards most likely LA or possibly the upper Texas Coast around the ridge. The NHC has no mention of this coming towards Tampa although some are interpreting a "temporary" movement to mean that.

There is, of course, still a chance this could impact the Fl Panhandle, but that's it for now.

And like I have said many times . . Anytime you mention the MS Coast you are talking bad news for the Mobile area. Been there, done that before.

[KWT]

Yep a MS landfall would mean Mobile bay being on the eastern side and the side where the surge would come up.

The next 24hrs will be very interesting to see how gustav organises.

[dwg71]

if gus takes a nw turn now, things get interesting for NOLA, Miss and AL.

it appears that gus is moving north of nhc track, if this sustains the track will take something more resembling what the gfdl has been calling for the past 60 hours or so.

[setxweathergal]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

The Florida talk is going overboard.

There may be a "temporary" move more to the NNW as Gustav crosses Cuba, but the storm is then going to resume a NW or WNW movement towards most likely LA or possibly the upper Texas Coast around the ridge. The NHC has no mention of this coming towards Tampa although some are interpreting a "temporary" movement to mean that.

There is, of course, still a chance this could impact the Fl Panhandle, but that's it for now.

I'm on the upper Tx coast near Beaumont..."if" it starts to move in that NW or WNW direction as mentioned above (following the possible NNW from Cuba)...what day would we be looking at it to start doing that? Or is it still too hard to tell?

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

trough is diving hard...

[jlauderdal]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

its not coming to tampa or naples, maybe the panhandle and the peninsula will feel the southerly flow later this weekend but some of this talk is just rubbish if anyone is implying some major shift east

[dwg71]

I think pennisula talk is way premature, but big bend to SW LA, need to continue to monitor with a focus on SELA to Mobile, you will more than likely be in the vicinity of the nhc 3 day cone come 10AM CST

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

trough is diving hard...

Folks this digging trough may end up being a bigger player in Gustav's
future track and intensity then first thought.

[jlauderdal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

trough is diving hard...

Folks this digging trough may end up being a bigger player in Gustav's
future track and intensity then first thought.

it would sure keep it away from houston, good news for you

[KWT]

dwg71, yep trough really is digging down though looking at the vis it seems to be slap bang on the track where it should be. Still the GFDL track is looking more possible...which is very bad as the surge will go into the lake then as it passes just to the east...well we remember the last time that happened...just hope the same result doesn't happen.

[jlauderdal]

I think pennisula talk is way premature, but big bend to SW LA, need to continue to monitor with a focus on SELA to Mobile, you will more than likely be in the vicinity of the nhc 3 day cone come 10AM CST

the peninsula has its own situation to monitor and its called hannah, all hands on deck the next few days as there are lot of areas in play..im interested to see how the usaf allocates resources later this weekend for missions, g-4 is critical for both systems as the setups are both complicated and muddy

[dwg71]

dwg71, yep trough really is digging down though looking at the vis it seems to be slap bang on the track where it should be. Still the GFDL track is looking more possible...which is very bad as the surge will go into the lake then as it passes just to the east...well we remember the last time that happened...just hope the same result doesn't happen.

I'll wait for verification, but to me it looks to be due NW from last NHC point. I think the center will be easier to follow now that its over water again.

[bayoubebe]

After reading the posts made here this morning, I think I've made my mind up to evacuate, probably today. Waiting to hear what the parishes say.
It's amazing how much changes with these hurricanes can happen overnight.

[Stormavoider]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

its not coming to tampa or naples, maybe the panhandle and the peninsula will feel the southerly flow later this weekend but some of this talk is just rubbish if anyone is implying some major shift east

Things can change like this

[jlauderdal]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

its not coming to tampa or naples, maybe the panhandle and the peninsula will feel the southerly flow later this weekend but some of this talk is just rubbish if anyone is implying some major shift east

Things can change like this

you can give me a smackdown if gustav makes landfall within 150 miles of tampa or naples or landfall in key west