ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Hey, AFM...Whats going on buddy?? BTW, Everyone take a peak at the WV of the GOM...Trof looks to be digging fairly nicely....Still, this is why it is SOOOO hard to forecast Tropical cyclones. This will have to be watched for sure!!!

[jasons2k]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

its not coming to tampa or naples, maybe the panhandle and the peninsula will feel the southerly flow later this weekend but some of this talk is just rubbish if anyone is implying some major shift east

Things can change like this

Totally different scenario - let's not unneccesarily scare people.

[Cookiely]

Florida, don't move!

A squeeze play.

[Stormcenter]

Hey, AFM...Whats going on buddy?? BTW, Everyone take a peak at the WV of the GOM...Trof looks to be digging fairly nicely....Still, this is why it is SOOOO hard to forecast Tropical cyclones. This will have to be watched for sure!!!

How would this affect the track possibly?

[KWT]

Stormcenter, would probably mean a track a little to the east of where most models have been suggesting, maybe closer to the GFDL and the HWRF.

[Sanibel]

Watch for the center to move more towards the convection center and more right. Could be slightly east if this happens and more east in track downrange.

[jlauderdal]

Florida, don't move!

A squeeze play.

yep, look out by 40W, our friend cycloneye isnt out of the game either

[Sanibel]

Dean, like I was saying yesterday. We've been watching these things in the Gulf for years and the bump SW yesterday was probably the sign of a SW to NE oriented High that Gus would get around and eventually move more N and right.

[carversteve]

Been gone for about 10 hours..is the center over water yet??

[cpdaman]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

The Florida talk is going overboard.

There may be a "temporary" move more to the NNW as Gustav crosses Cuba, but the storm is then going to resume a NW or WNW movement towards most likely LA or possibly the upper Texas Coast around the ridge. The NHC has no mention of this coming towards Tampa although some are interpreting a "temporary" movement to mean that.

There is, of course, still a chance this could impact the Fl Panhandle, but that's it for now.

so you are telling me that if i lived in tampa to key west it is unacceptable to talk about gustav impacting that area in a serious way.....sorry that is wrong...because u don't want to uncessarily scare people?......this is not going out on public broad cast radio.......and based on your comment people on this board on the west gulf side of florida would be afraid to post now ...for fear of back lash...........there is tons of uncertainty... florida keys to tampa residents should be free to comment ........what do you tell them SHOULD a track shift more east occur tonite or sunday. jasons i'm sorry for replying i just thought we are all under stress and with the uncertainty , the talk is warranted, that's all (esp with some models showing a very large tropical storm radius in the GOM)

[Just Joshing You]

Been gone for about 10 hours..is the center over water yet??

I believe it is now over water, but I've been gone as well and only going by Sat. BTW, Sat... looks mind blowing

[KWT]

Sanibel, yeah quite possibly tat may happen ,the center gets whipped up under the convection, indeed I think looking at vis imagery thats exactly what has happened, I think this is getting primed for some strong development, we shall wait and see, another 12hrs and then things go bang IMO.

[Just Joshing You]

Sanibel, yeah quite possibly tat may happen ,the center gets whipped up under the convection, indeed I think looking at vis imagery thats exactly what has happened, I think this is getting primed for some strong development, we shall wait and see, another 12hrs and then things go bang IMO.

I sense some rapid organization underway as we speak. Slow to start, but then it will go like this.

"Jump, Gustav!"
"HOW HIGH!?"
"4.. MAYBE 5!"
"EASY!"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the model thread, and the good agreement, I was thinking Intracoastal City to about Pensacola as the likely landfall area.

But looking at that water vapor, I don't see how Gustav ever gets past 90ºW. Too bad G-IV didn't fly yesterday, the 0Z models might have been different. But it flies this afternoon.

Anyway, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, which changed just 5 minutes ago, and isn't endorsed by Storm2K, now I'm thinking the main threat area is Port Fourchon to the Florida Big Bend.

It appears, to my untrained eyes, that Gustav is already trending North of the NHC forecast points.


Of course, prudence dictates anyone in or near the cone of uncertainty not let down their guard.

[tailgater]

Yes cpdaman Feel free to post and IMHO you aren't inthe clear yet.

[KWT]

Ed, looks like at the moment its close to the GFDL path which did suggest it lifting up to a NW heading pretty fast compared to other models.

The way it gets past 90W is where the high builds in again, thats the key, however by that time this may be ashore...remember the GFDL done a terrible job on bending back Fay to the west, may have the same issue with Gustav.

[cpdaman]

tailgater...well i think I'm in the clear (i'm on se side of fl) but for the gulf coast i am in agreement with ED's latest comment, in the sense that ...that is an increasing chance...yet the threat area extends still thru texas and espeically SE LA, thru Panhandle.

and KWT that is the key ..the high building back in and if it takes it's sweet time....well see Ed's comment

[tailgater]

From the 5am discussion
A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
Could affect strength and motion.

[deltadog03]

Another thing to watch for with GUS is how fast he is moving....Once he gets rolling its going to be tough to get him to stop...

[cpdaman]

good point delta dog, you gotta admit the storm looks likes its quickly becoming very impressive right now (remember good ole fay moving a bit fast thru cuba) that gave me a good scare late one nite, i don't see that happening but all eyes are watching