ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tailgater]

This radar is a little father away but it's headed that way and there's not all the clutter.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... ar/05Pilon

[CrazyC83]

I think most the wind data is being flagged though...If I am not mistaken...

What do you mean by flagged? Thanks

Flagged = likely not accurate due to signal issues (i.e. excessive rain, bad positioning, etc.) and not representative of the real strength. If that 57 kt is accurate, then 50 kt is probably the current intensity as a blend of the values. Otherwise go with 45 kt.

[hial2]

I think most the wind data is being flagged though...If I am not mistaken...

What do you mean by flagged? Thanks

Flagged = likely not accurate due to signal issues (i.e. excessive rain, bad positioning, etc.) and not representative of the real strength. If that 57 kt is accurate, then 50 kt is probably the current intensity as a blend of the values. Otherwise go with 45 kt.

Thanks Crazy!

[KWT]

Yeah though as others have said Crazy recon may support 50kts, but I think if it was that strong they'd have issued a special advisory to say so, I reckon they may only up to 45kts, either wya it a decent bit stronger then first expected.

[NDG]

First time watching 1km vis sat loop since 4 hrs ago, Fay's LLC is really getting going this evening, probably a lot faster than what the NHC thought earlier.

[KWT]

Yeah NDG agreed and I think recon finding higher winds are also a good sign thats the case as well, doesn't bode well for Cuba if it can pull some deeper convection over the LLC that is to the SE of it, would think there is a real chance of a hurricane before Cuba if it does.

[Scorpion]

I don't understand.. whats the point of SFMR if essentially every measurement is untrustworthy.

[Aquawind]

Yeah NDG agreed and I think recon finding higher winds are also a good sign thats the case as well, doesn't bode well for Cuba if it can pull some deeper convection over the LLC that is to the SE of it, would think there is a real chance of a hurricane before Cuba if it does.

Have you slept in the last couple days? lol Your commentary has been good either way..lol

[cycloneye]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

[senorpepr]

I don't understand.. whats the point of SFMR if essentially every measurement is untrustworthy.

Today's performance is not typical.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts.

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

It is not flagged so it could be valid. However, past TCR's have said that the SFMR can sometimes throw extra uncertainty into measurements near shore in shallower waters. In addition, flight-level winds come nowhere near supporting 60 kt.

[Aquawind]

There must be a problem with the data.. geesh that would be to impressive..the pretty pictures don't look that good! lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they are good because they are not flaged and there is more then one. Looks like Fay is starting to feed on the hottest surface waters in the Atlantic.

[senorpepr]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

Those aren't flagged, but they do seem fishy with flight level winds of 16KT (20KT 10s gust)

[KWT]

Yeah Matt but shallower waters tend to throw up skewed results, remember when Edouard recon showed 55kts about 50 miles away from the center where there was only a slight cell present, because the water was shallow.

Still they may well now go for 50kts based on the sheer amount of those higher surface estimates.

We will see what happens but if it can build convection things will get interesting.

[Scorpion]

Worthless or not, the SFMR estimates keep going up so its a good sign of strengthening.

[kurtpage]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

I believe that these are not valid because they are rain contaminated

[Lowpressure]

One thing is for sure, with this storm many of us have learned a lot so far. This will be one of those storms we all refer to again someday.

[Aric Dunn]

Crazy,is this set not valid,62kts?

224800 1816N 07454W 8430 01552 0104 +131 +131 196016 020 062 031 00

Those aren't flagged, but they do seem fishy with flight level winds of 16KT (20KT 10s gust)

well when you compare it to the 57kt FL they had in the VDM it fits rather nicely ..

the the only i cant figure out is why FL is so low .. also the 57kts although in the VDM i could not find it in an set of Hdobs.?

[fasterdisaster]

IMO I would go to 50 kts but obviously I'm not any kind of authority on it.