ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

dwg71, yep trough really is digging down though looking at the vis it seems to be slap bang on the track where it should be. Still the GFDL track is looking more possible...which is very bad as the surge will go into the lake then as it passes just to the east...well we remember the last time that happened...just hope the same result doesn't happen.

I'll wait for verification, but to me it looks to be due NW from last NHC point. I think the center will be easier to follow now that its over water again.

It is northwest...but that is temporary. It basically did a job around the island. That motion isn't true motion due to land interaction. It basically pulled a crazy Ivan...only over the island instead of south of it.

[Frank2]

To any of the meteorologists on at this time - per the WV Loop, it seems the trough is digging southward in the Gulf a bit more than forecast, and, might cause Gustav to turn northward - your comments are always welcome:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

[gatorcane]

AFM about the NW jog, I wonder if the NHC's observation of a possible NNW jog over Western Cuba is coming to fruition due to a much stronger weakness? The last NHC discussion is what I am referring to

[KWT]

Well once the trough starts to move out of the way over the next 24-48hrs then we should see whatever heading it has remain that way till the high starts to build in.

Center looks like its heading close to 295-300 at the moment, tightening up very nicely at the moment in the last few hours, keep watching IR.

Yep recon showed a NW motion as it was coming off Jamaica.

[cpdaman]

It is northwest...but that is temporary. It basically did a job around the island. That motion isn't true motion due to land interaction. It basically pulled a crazy Ivan...only over the island instead of south of it.

so you are fairly confident it will go back wnw for a while AFM, thanks for any response.

[Frank2]

Guess everyone is posting over each other's posts - that's what I was referring to - the NW (or NNW) motion seems to be due to a very strong trough in the Gulf ATTM which is seen on the WV loop as even working down to the Yucatan coast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

[TTheriot1975]

AFM...you are saying temporary...with the trough moving fast will it move out of the way sooner...thus still making a more west direction...or will it still move it NNE?

[cpdaman]

picked up on cuban radar (for now at least) until it goes wnw out of picture

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

i would think the ridge is still giving her that WNW influence even with the tough digging

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man i don't do this often but im about to agree with JB...Were about to get EDUCATED in RI folks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Air Force Met]

Hey, AFM...Whats going on buddy?? BTW, Everyone take a peak at the WV of the GOM...Trof looks to be digging fairly nicely....Still, this is why it is SOOOO hard to forecast Tropical cyclones. This will have to be watched for sure!!!

How would this affect the track possibly?

It will be a big player. Models are notorious for their bad handling of upper level features. If a ULL forms and digs SW...it could steer it due NW when coupled with the high. If it doesn't move out of the way...Gustav would go east...towards the FL panhandle. But...it would be sheared so bad it wouldn't be a major hurricane...so the threat would be less.

[Air Force Met]

AFM about the NW jog, I wonder if the NHC's observation of a possible NNW jog over Western Cuba is coming to fruition due to a much stronger weakness? The last NHC discussion is what I am referring to

The NNW jog is due to the trof over the Gulf.

[Air Force Met]

It is northwest...but that is temporary. It basically did a job around the island. That motion isn't true motion due to land interaction. It basically pulled a crazy Ivan...only over the island instead of south of it.

so you are fairly confident it will go back wnw for a while AFM, thanks for any response.

Yes. It will either move W or WNW. Probably around 275-285.

[Steve]

>>Dean, like I was saying yesterday. We've been watching these things in the Gulf for years and the bump SW yesterday was probably the sign of a SW to NE oriented High that Gus would get around and eventually move more N and right.

While I think Sanibel is one of the top 2 or 3 amateurs on the site, it may not matter in the end. As per NHC:

UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE
LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT.

So that bend to the left is even south of me - assuming it happens. It doesn't matter how it gets to landfall but more where it gets to landfall. Timing.

[carolina_73]

Looks like the center should be about here...

[Sabanic]

It is northwest...but that is temporary. It basically did a job around the island. That motion isn't true motion due to land interaction. It basically pulled a crazy Ivan...only over the island instead of south of it.

so you are fairly confident it will go back wnw for a while AFM, thanks for any response.

Yes. It will either move W or WNW. Probably around 275-285.

But AFM isnt there a slight possibilty they underestimated the influence of the trough as some of the models have suggested? And a close to WNW/NW movement continues.

Just asking.

[Air Force Met]

AFM...you are saying temporary...with the trough moving fast will it move out of the way sooner...thus still making a more west direction...or will it still move it NNE?

Trofs are hard to forecast for...especially trofs that aren't fully developed down to the sfc (like you see with a front). This trof isn't moving allthat quick. It is still diggin southward and it remains to be seen if it will close of and retrograde out of the way.

[gatorcane]

Members can see the trough we are discussing (in the GOM) by looping using this link. Note the clouds pushing southward over the GOM.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[KWT]

Steve, yeah the high is forecasted to move back however the issue is if it does go a little further east then it will make landfall just a little sooner which will mean that it will hit before the high builds in.

[deltadog03]

Worse case senario would be for this to move NW go over western cuba....Then maybe NNW..At the same time the trof retrograde back SW and vent him as he then turns NW or WNW...

[cpdaman]

AFM...you are saying temporary...with the trough moving fast will it move out of the way sooner...thus still making a more west direction...or will it still move it NNE?

Trofs are hard to forecast for...especially trofs that aren't fully developed down to the sfc (like you see with a front). This trof isn't moving allthat quick. It is still diggin southward and it remains to be seen if it will close of and retrograde out of the way.

you are very helpful this morning thank you

i'm trying to see how much info you can give me , so excuse me for asking one more question

when is the ridge that is steering this thing right now suppose to weaken or is already (and is the ridge behaving according to schedule?)