ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ivanhater]

I think AFM we already seeing hints of that occuring with the development of the inner core and with it having very good bandings it may well strengthen pretty rapidly IMO, esp if it can gain some convection like its doing already.

FWIW the models all seem to agree that this won't really take off till a little further WNW, I think thats why the NHC doesn't call for much strengthening in the next 12-18hrs.

I agree. When I mean convectively getting its act together...I don't mean just some good thunderstorms and a steady drop in pressure...I mean hold on to your seats because the conditions are very good for explosive development and a big drop in pressure....and a nice cold CDO to go along with it.

Youve been spot on so far AFM..and I agree..she will be losing that outer band currently over the NW Caribbean and wrap up overnight...hope we have an overnight shift on at s2k!

[Aric Dunn]

I think AFM we already seeing hints of that occuring with the development of the inner core and with it having very good bandings it may well strengthen pretty rapidly IMO, esp if it can gain some convection like its doing already.

FWIW the models all seem to agree that this won't really take off till a little further WNW, I think thats why the NHC doesn't call for much strengthening in the next 12-18hrs.

I agree. When I mean convectively getting its act together...I don't mean just some good thunderstorms and a steady drop in pressure...I mean hold on to your seats because the conditions are very good for explosive development and a big drop in pressure....and a nice cold CDO to go along with it.

agreed.. especially as it begins to slow down some..

[HurricaneHunter914]

If she becomes a hurricane tonight, imagine how strong she could get tomorrow. I think a Cat-2 at landfall is not out of the question. Cat-3 is kinda pushing it.

[txwatcher91]

IMO this will become a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 before landfall.

That's a bold prediction. your reasoning?

Outlflow is excellent, forward speed SHOULD decrease, higher TCHP ahead, better upper level conditions, more time for the core to organize, and the DMAX tomorrow morning will contribute to this strengthening pretty readily, althought this does not mean it will verify.

[hawkeh]

Dolly sure is looking better on satellite, should be an interesting night.

[Scorpion]

Down 6 mb since last VDM.. pretty good strengthening

[RL3AO]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

[jhamps10]

998mb pressure from recon.

[Nimbus]

Its starting to pick up convection near the center now that it is moving away from the coast. Should look a lot different in 12 hours but its a July storm so it will probably top out at cat 2 even if it does go through RI.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

It may be a bit higher on the VDM (around 1000-1001) but still a significant drop in a short time period.

[KWT]

Yeah I know exactly the type of look your talking about AFM, the type that can a system increase 20-30kts in just 6-12hrs, convection still increasing and its getting a very impressive look to me, banding is so impressive right now IMO that if we do get that big convective blast its going to explode.

[RL3AO]

Two hour loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL042008&starting_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807212025.GIF&ending_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807212225.GIF

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

This could be the start of some explosive deepening given
high oceanic heat content and favorable shear-less conditions.
I was expecting a pressure drop of this magnitude, and forecast
it to continue.

[stormy1970al]

What are the chances that Dolly will hit Corpus Christe? My bf family lives there. Also we have family near South Padre Island.

Anyway I hope everyone in the path of Dolly is preparing. She looks like she is getting her act together....(just my personal opinion)

[CrazyC83]

The winds haven't supported any increase though (still supporting 45 kt) but they have only been in one quadrant.

[txwatcher91]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

Like I said, Cat 3/4 at landfall is VERY possible given the time it has over water. I have seen Katrina, Wilma, Rita, etc. before they underwent RI and this one has the appearance and conditions to support this. Not saying Cat 5, but RI is very possible. I am looking at Bertha of this year as a good analog as once it got going it developed quickly.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances that Dolly will hit Corpus Christe? My bf family lives there. Also we have family near South Padre Island.

Anyway I hope everyone in the path of Dolly is preparing. She looks like she is getting her act together....(just my personal opinion)

Chances are one of those areas will be affected (if not both).

[TexWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

looking pretty good now.

I don't know if this thing will slow down, and I'm thinking south of Brownsville.

[CrazyC83]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

Like I said, Cat 3/4 at landfall is VERY possible given the time it has over water. I have seen Katrina, Wilma, Rita, etc. before they underwent RI and this one has the appearance and conditions to support this. Not saying Cat 5, but RI is very possible. I am looking at Bertha of this year as a good analog as once it got going it developed quickly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm in agreement with those saying RI. I predict 125 kt by early Wednesday, followed by slight weakening before landfall.