ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

Excerpt from article below on "shade evacuation" problem

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2007/08/should_you_stay_1.html

Now, should you go?

The answer lies in where you live, and the extent to which you are comfortable with the structure of your home. Following so closely after Hurricane Katrina, Rita prompted a lot of people to evacuate who normally might not have.

Prior to Rita, during a "successful" evacuation, officials planned to get 70 percent to 80 percent of residents out of evacuation zones. Of those who would evacuate, officials planned, about 10 percent to 20 percent would "shadow evacuees" not from the recommended zones. During Rita 85 percent to 90 percent of people left from evacuation zones, and more than half of everyone who left -- 1.5 million people -- were shadow evacuees. That, in part, explains the gridlock.

At the beginning of this year city and county officials took pains to urge residents who live outside of the surge zone to seriously consider not evacuating. Who lives in the surge zone?.

How many miles inland is the City of Houston? Years ago I lived in the Clear Creek area and I remember Galveston was 30 miles South and Houston was 30 miles North. Is that wrong? We don't evacuate in Mobile either unless we're in areas that flood. My house (according to Google Earth) is 20 miles from the Gulf. I wish so badly that the news would do segments on who should not evacuate when a storm is approaching. They act like the whole city is going to be blown down and that is just not true. I went through Frederic and my house didn't move an inch during the storm ---- the sliding glass doors were a problem, but that was it. The news should tell people what trees are most vulnerable during a storm and also why you cover windows --- it's not to keep the rug dry People wouldn't panic so much if they were given a little bit more information.

Totally agree I live 20 miles north of Gal and 6 miles from the Bay. Clear Lake flooded badly with Alicia ( where Nasa is and is now Houston). Heck, it floods with just a major rain storm. They DO need better communication and you can bet that I will be voicing it after this is over and the same garbage happens again.

Back on topic...is that ridge moving west at all or did I miss it?

[AJC3]

AJ3 that loops shows a lot of dry air coming into the center near the end...

That's what I was talking about when I said the moat that had been surrounding the remnant inner core was starting to clear out everything inside the outer convective ring.


Here's some more Ike stuff I put together...Pico San Juan radar loop (5 3/4 hrs) out 345 PM

[TampaFl]

Ridge is still holding very strong - WOW!

[dwg71]

What does that mean AJ3 in regards to strengthening/weakening?

[haml8]

Ridge is still holding very strong - WOW!

Which layer is that? (in MBs)

[HURAKAN]

[rtd2]

Ridge is still holding very strong - WOW!

Which layer is that? (in MBs)

looks to be 300-850

[jhpigott]

looks like Ike is thinking about heading inland again . . .

[ronjon]

definite W-NW movement - might even be a wobble NW - Ike might be headed inland now.

[gatorcane]

looks like Ike is thinking about heading inland again . . .

yeah seems to be a noticeable NW wobble...and Ike is almost inland

[KWT]

Well I can see a WNW breifly BUT the key thing here is not to follow the tight inner core as that is weakening(though it seems to be holding steady now as that WNW wobble has shifted the outer eyewall even more over land) and the outer eyewall is trying to take over, so the actual center will probably be quite loose now and as long as that larger eye feature remains in place then it will still take in energy from the south even if it does rake the coast.

[haml8]

Ed, what is JB saying... looking at the model that they provide it seems that SETX Texas is on their mind and they are split between SETX and South texas padre etc..

[dwg71]

Any guesses on a track change or intensity at 5PM.

I would think they would have to move track further south, especially mid track. They might have final point inland around 28.5N 95W or they may leave it just offshore.

Intesity will generously be set at 70KTS

[Weatherfreak14]

definite W-NW movement - might even be a wobble NW - Ike might be headed inland now.

Looks like it will be back on shore agin in the next hour or so. Hopefully it stays on for the rest of the way.

[mpic]

Excerpt from article below on "shade evacuation" problem

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2007/08/should_you_stay_1.html

Now, should you go?

The answer lies in where you live, and the extent to which you are comfortable with the structure of your home. Following so closely after Hurricane Katrina, Rita prompted a lot of people to evacuate who normally might not have.

Prior to Rita, during a "successful" evacuation, officials planned to get 70 percent to 80 percent of residents out of evacuation zones. Of those who would evacuate, officials planned, about 10 percent to 20 percent would "shadow evacuees" not from the recommended zones. During Rita 85 percent to 90 percent of people left from evacuation zones, and more than half of everyone who left -- 1.5 million people -- were shadow evacuees. That, in part, explains the gridlock.

At the beginning of this year city and county officials took pains to urge residents who live outside of the surge zone to seriously consider not evacuating. Who lives in the surge zone?.

How many miles inland is the City of Houston? Years ago I lived in the Clear Creek area and I remember Galveston was 30 miles South and Houston was 30 miles North. Is that wrong? We don't evacuate in Mobile either unless we're in areas that flood. My house (according to Google Earth) is 20 miles from the Gulf. I wish so badly that the news would do segments on who should not evacuate when a storm is approaching. They act like the whole city is going to be blown down and that is just not true. I went through Frederic and my house didn't move an inch during the storm ---- the sliding glass doors were a problem, but that was it. The news should tell people what trees are most vulnerable during a storm and also why you cover windows --- it's not to keep the rug dry People wouldn't panic so much if they were given a little bit more information.

Totally agree I live 20 miles north of Gal and 6 miles from the Bay. Clear Lake flooded badly with Alicia ( where Nasa is and is now Houston). Heck, it floods with just a major rain storm. They DO need better communication and you can bet that I will be voicing it after this is over and the same garbage happens again.

Back on topic...is that ridge moving west at all or did I miss it?

As you can see, most of Houston does not. I live on that line between 146 and I-45 in the yellow area (zone A) on the NE side.

[caneman]

Stay safe Texans if it come your way. Another day or two tracking like this wil lbe real cause for concern but a 50-100 mile shift even just 24 hours out can make all the difference in the world. Charley shifted just East of us and from what I'm told people in this area didn't even know it had passed due to us being on the West side with dry air. Of course, I evacuated right into Charley. Don't make that mistake.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, what is JB saying... looking at the model that they provide it seems that SETX Texas is on their mind and they are split between SETX and South texas padre etc..

On the video, he barely mentioned Ike except to draw a very quick line towards Louisiana, but it wasn't a thoughtfully drawn out line. (I know the difference). No column update since early morning. Yesterday he was (not) liking Louisiana, and the inference from the quickie line was still Louisiana, but it is almost like he doesn't want to make a forecast.


I'd think, if it were coming anywhere near Houston, in his opinion, he wouldn't be shy about writing about it. Ditto any big coastal city, New York, Philly, Miami, NOLA, Houston. He usually isn't shy about pushing that.

[KWT]

Any guesses on a track change or intensity at 5PM.

I would think they would have to move track further south, especially mid track. They might have final point inland around 28.5N 95W or they may leave it just offshore.

Intesity will generously be set at 70KTS

Agreed they may even lower it to 65kts based on what recon has been showing recently.

The problem for Ike is that inner core is disrupted. Not through land but through the fact it was jsut starting an EWRC as it was coming overland and that seems to have just allowed the system to wind down pretty readily.

That should mean a pretty powerful hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know my house is safely inland, and the only tree in the yard might smash the garage, but not the house. But my wife spent a week w/o electricity during Alicia, and has made it clear she never wants to do that again.

[mpic]

Stay safe Texans if it come your way. Another day or two tracking like this wil lbe real cause for concern but a 50-100 mile shift even just 24 hours out can make all the difference in the world. Charley shifted just East of us and from what I'm told people in this area didn't even know it had passed due to us being on the West side with dry air. Of course, I evacuated right into Charley. Don't make that mistake.

Thanks caneman...I made that same mistake and went east to Woodville north of Beaumont for Rita. This time I'm going straight north 100 miles. Off to pack up the truck again and will be back on later.