ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM Advisory:


...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.

[fasterdisaster]

Reminds me much more of Ivan than Katrina as far as models go actually.

[Dean4Storms]

This might be a situation where the Bamm models are more accurate.

[Shockwave]

That is exactly due west according to that vortex, hasn't gained any lattiude at all, not good for the forecasted track...

It isn't in the short term. I remember a few years back I was watching Fabian I believe and he missed several NHC plots and I started thinking they had blown it and that he wasn't going to curve. Well sure enough he did it but he just did it a little later but still made the 36 hour plot he just curved harder.

When the western edge of the ridge erodes it will turn more NW its just a matter of when and where and just because he misses the early track positions doesn't mean it won't over correct and be N of one further down stream.

Even if that happens, wouldn't it already be too far westward to curve back and hit the mountainous areas of Cuba? So technically it wouldn't be the same as it going northward now.

[KWT]

Yep NHC mentions the fact this could be close to hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Cuban coasts suggests we could see hurricane warnings put up there just in case.

Also I think 40kts is a little conservative but then again its still a little stronger then last advisory.

[shaggy]

Yeah thats true ncdowneast but the synoptics are different with this one, you've got to think why is it moving further to the west then the models expected, the simple answer is probably the upper ridge is stronger then progged and if it is then the turn will happen further west of where the models progged because they progged a weaker ridge from the start.

I agree with both of you and Steve on this. Just relaying past experience where over analyzing every missed NHC plot is not always worth the effort.

I think its moving further west because it went right over the worst possible island and the highest mountains on that island. All the guidance that showed the early north turn always had Fay to strong IMO. If she had reached their intensities maybe she would have turned. Perhaps if she can stay south of Cuba and gain more power she will make a sharper harder turn poleward because of her strength?

[chris_fit]

This is off topic but does anyone have a link to a collection of tropical weather Google Earth "plug-ins" "addons" and the like? Such as the models, satelites, etc. I had it and I got a new computer and have not been able to find it after lots of google-ing

[MGC]

Fay has about 10 hours before she clears Cabo Cruz Cuba at here current heading assuming she does not start her northward turn. Fay will be transiting across some very warm waters and if she should remain offshore Fay could become a hurricane prior to crossing the Cuba coast tomorrow. Fay will be taking a path simular to Dennis in 2005. Dennis intensified rapidly traveling the same path Fay is expected to travel, reaching 130KTS at landfall in Cuba. I do not expect Fay to reach that intensity. I am a bit troubled by Fay's heading of almost due west as the NHC forecast a more WNW track ATT. I can not count the times the models insist on moving a TC poleward when in fact they continue to track westward. Hurricane Ivan as I recall went way futher west than the models wanted it to go......MGC


This is not an official forecast just MGC's opinion for what it is worth...

[Dean4Storms]

This won't be a situation where a correction on the course can occur downstream, there is nothing turning it but a weakness to develop in the ridge.

[boca]

I wonder becuase of the trends of Fays westward movement if we'll even get a TS watch here in SE Florida.

[Category6]

Can Fay slowing down a bit mean she is ready to begin more of a WNW motion or was this expected?

[Dean4Storms]

Fay has about 10 hours before she clears Cabo Cruz Cuba at here current heading assuming she does not start her northward turn. Fay will be transiting across some very warm waters and if she should remain offshore Fay could become a hurricane prior to crossing the Cuba coast tomorrow. Fay will be taking a path simular to Dennis in 2005. Dennis intensified rapidly traveling the same path Fay is expected to travel, reaching 130KTS at landfall in Cuba. I do not expect Fay to reach that intensity. I am a bit troubled by Fay's heading of almost due west as the NHC forecast a more WNW track ATT. I can not count the times the models insist on moving a TC poleward when in fact they continue to track westward. Hurricane Ivan as I recall went way futher west than the models wanted it to go......MGC


This is not an official forecast just MGC's opinion for what it is worth...

I'm getting concerned here MGC. I can think of the same thing with Katrina, the models kept moving west as they overestimated the ridge. Fay could very well be a Panhandle problem if this more westward track is still ongoing come tomorrow morning.

[shaggy]

This won't be a situation where a correction on the course can occur downstream, there is nothing turning it but a weakness to develop in the ridge.

Why couldn't there be a correction? If it feels a weakness in the ridge its going to go for it period. If this weakness sets up somewhere further east of where the NHC track is then it will turn up east of the later plots. If it sets up west of there then it keeps going west. To say it will not correct or that it CAN'T correct itself is entirely untrue.

[Shockwave]

Can Fay slowing down a bit mean she is ready to begin more of a WNW motion or was this expected?

I don't really know what to expect anymore with Fay. I think ,well I know I am taking it as it comes and going from there.

[jinftl]

The slowing of the forward motion....is that usual a sign that the steering is changing for the system? Could be first sign of additional dynamics coming into play in the guiding of the system.

Also, could the apparent due west motion for the last day be due in part to the fact that while over hispanola, some the center fixes were estimated? And didn't Fay undergo a bit of reorganization today to the south of where she came offshore Haiti?

No arguing that Fay has been moving west, but there are a few factors that could possibly skew that a bit.

[Evil Jeremy]

Even though it is the most likely path at this point, the models can still change, and all of Florida should be preparing for a hit. Remember, Florida is not very wide, so only a slight change east could bring Fay inland earlier. The 00z models are going to be the ones to watch, and remember: The stronger the storm = the more north the path.

[jinftl]

Until we see the models make a significant shift west...fay is still within the cone of the NHC forecast track and behaving pretty much in line with expectations of the NHC...as evidenced by the fact that the forecast track has essentially been unchanged for 24 hours.

Fay has about 10 hours before she clears Cabo Cruz Cuba at here current heading assuming she does not start her northward turn. Fay will be transiting across some very warm waters and if she should remain offshore Fay could become a hurricane prior to crossing the Cuba coast tomorrow. Fay will be taking a path simular to Dennis in 2005. Dennis intensified rapidly traveling the same path Fay is expected to travel, reaching 130KTS at landfall in Cuba. I do not expect Fay to reach that intensity. I am a bit troubled by Fay's heading of almost due west as the NHC forecast a more WNW track ATT. I can not count the times the models insist on moving a TC poleward when in fact they continue to track westward. Hurricane Ivan as I recall went way futher west than the models wanted it to go......MGC


This is not an official forecast just MGC's opinion for what it is worth...

I'm getting concerned here MGC. I can think of the same thing with Katrina, the models kept moving west as they overestimated the ridge. Fay could very well be a Panhandle problem if this more westward track is still ongoing come tomorrow morning.

[boca]

Even though it is the most likely path at this point, the models can still change, and all of Florida should be preparing for a hit. Remember, Florida is not very wide, so only a slight change east could bring Fay inland earlier. The 00z models are going to be the ones to watch, and remember: The stronger the storm = the more north the path.

I think the 00GFS runs will be further west because by this time Fay should been moving WNW,its still 275 due west.I think the NHC will be 50 miles further west in my opinion due to a stronger ridge.

[Rainband]

Even though it is the most likely path at this point, the models can still change, and all of Florida should be preparing for a hit. Remember, Florida is not very wide, so only a slight change east could bring Fay inland earlier. The 00z models are going to be the ones to watch, and remember: The stronger the storm = the more north the path.

not always

[caneman]

Usually when you see a storm slow, a direction change is soon to follow.