ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[randge]

I notice now that all the forecast tracks plotted on Skeetobite are making this a TEXAS landfall. (With the exception of UKMET.)

Too early for the pro's here to hazard a guess on that??

[RL3AO]

1. Is it slowing down due to intensifying?
2. Is it intensifying due to slowing down?

I guess 2 but obviously there is lots of factors involved so carry on folks, i find this stuff absolutely amazing to watch and love learning about it.

Also be safe if your in the path obvously!

Intensifying due to slowing down.

I say intensifying due to not having its inflow coming from the Yucatan.

[KWT]

Yeah RL3AO I think thats the main reason as well, you can see the way the stronger convection has slowly been popping up further across Dolly as it heads to the WNW and if thats the case the eastern side should respond soon and when it does we will have a pretty classic looking system.

[HouTXmetro]

Thanks Wxman57. Do you think that the Houston-Galveston area will only see rain and some gusty winds (with the current track that Dolly is on)?

I've been watering my lawn today.

Sounds like no rain for us and more 100+ degree weather on the upper TX coast. I thought we could alteast get a couple of tropical downpours out of Dolly. Guess the drought continues.

[HURAKAN]

Family picture!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks Wxman57. Do you think that the Houston-Galveston area will only see rain and some gusty winds (with the current track that Dolly is on)?

I've been watering my lawn today.

Sounds like no rain for us and more 100+ degree weather on the upper TX coast. I thought we could alteast get a couple of tropical downpours out of Dolly. Guess the drought continues.

You will likely get SOME rain! The moisture shield is 900 miles wide west-east, and
the shield is moving north and northwest:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

[RL3AO]

This will be an interesting forecast at 11. Does the NHC raise the intensity? By how much? Do they issue hurricane warnings? Do they wait until 5a and risk RI during the night and people waking up to a cat 2 and only 36 hours to prepare for a major hurricane?

[Sjones]

Any idea about the high that is over texas? Is it expected to move out at the last minute, or stay strong??

[CrazyC83]

This will be an interesting forecast at 11. Does the NHC raise the intensity? By how much? Do they issue hurricane warnings? Do they wait until 5a and risk RI during the night and people waking up to a cat 2 and only 36 hours to prepare for a major hurricane?

At this point, there is no data to raise the intensity but the plane has not been to all of Dolly.

[HURAKAN]

Just in case you have not been interested in Cristóbal, you should know that tomorrow we may wake up to two hurricanes. Cristóbal is also cranking it up!

[KWT]

RL3AO, I don't think they will raise the forecast uless the models show higher winds expected, though the NHC will probably mention that there is a considerable chance of higher winds than expected. They may even mention the chance of RI I'm really not sure we will see!

[Air Force Met]

You will likely get SOME rain! The moisture shield is 900 miles wide west-east, and
the shield is moving north and northwest:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

As the inner core consolidates...I suspect that most of that rain band will dissipate. There will be some high clouds...maybe some Alto-stratus...and maybe even a squall-line but most of it should dissipate as Dolly gets its act together.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks AFM makes sense. It is just surprising to see it so
big right now.

[Derek Ortt]

I notice now that all the forecast tracks plotted on Skeetobite are making this a TEXAS landfall. (With the exception of UKMET.)

Too early for the pro's here to hazard a guess on that??

see the tropical analysis forum for this information

[weatherguru18]

The stronger the storm gets the more likely you are to see greater subsidence on the outter fringes of the storm and therefore most of the showers and thunderstorms on the eastern side of the storm extending all the way to Cuba is likely to die out.

[HouTXmetro]

Any idea about the high that is over texas? Is it expected to move out at the last minute, or stay strong??

It's suppose to temporarily weaken then quickly build back in. We are safe, it would be unprecedented for the NHC to miss this coming our way this close to landfall. of course keep checking with the NHC until this thing washed ashore, but for the time being sit back and enjoy mother nature from afar.

[Normandy]

Two things to look at when looking at satellite too get a good indication of Dolly's intensification.........

1) The banding. Visible loops indicate some very good banding, showing that the LLC is very vigorous and is intensifying at a good rate. Pressure drops support this (A 6mb pressure drop without very intense convection over two hours is very impressive).

2) The outflow....Amazing outflow in all quadrants except the southern, and that is improving. That indicates that UL conditions are VERY favorable for deepening.

I am starting to get a bit worried about Brownsville....

[Dionne]

Yep RL3AO it does seem like Dolly is starting to get closer to where it needs to be for it to strengthen, as you say convection has deepened recently in both the western and southern quadrants of the storm.

Exactly! I'm worried about wrap around winds. Those outer bands can be rough. It's gonna be a long night watching this progress. We're prepared and will run north. The last steering currents we saw looked strange. Whats with the loop in the northern GOM at Mississippi river discharge?

[Ivanhater]

[Scorpion]

Wow that sat pic is pretty ominous. If this can get a good CDO then bombs away.