ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Trying to see?

[Weatherfreak000]

I would assume the more North and East it progresses...the more East landfall could be in the Gulf.


This should be an interesting development for the Eastern Gulf Coast as well.

[KWT]

superfly, I think this system may go right over there as it happens, think my idea may have to be shunted a little further east, I was thinking C.LA but given the jog to the right and the more southerly trough I think this may get a little further east.

I also think it hits there as a major hurricane...

[PTrackerLA]

NOLA now in 3 day cone, yikes: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... e#contents

[mvtrucking]

Besides flip flopping east & west (I guess I am backwards) still about the same point it has been for 5 days. If Gustave does come into that general area of La, they(NHC) should be commended for nailing it over a week out. Still astounds me just how good these guys are with forecasting such difficult storms..

[Dean4Storms]

Trough is digging further into Gulf than earlier expected and still digging??????


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
THIS MORNING. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF...WEAK IMPULSES OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD HAVE RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. THESE HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED. ALTHOUGH
WE ARE WITHIN A WEAKNESS ALOFT...GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL COVERAGES
ON THE LOW SIDE AS ANY DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT DRIER
AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON
TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 70S.

TODAY`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY TO LOW. /10

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE STORY ON GUSTAV MAY BE
A COMPLICATED ONE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
GUSTAV WILL PROBABLY START TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON OUR AREA BY LATE
THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE IMPACTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE AND AIR FORCE RECONAISANCE
DATA SHOWS GUSTAV GETTING MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK STILL TAKES GUSTAV
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GULF AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...THEN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
MADE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MANY OF US ALONG THE ALABAMA...
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST MAY HAVE BEGUN TO ENTERTAIN THE IDEA
THAT GUSTAV WOULD MORE LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL FARTHER WEST OF OUR
AREA...BUT BEING THIS EARLY IN THE GAME THAT IS PRE-MATURE. THERE
ARE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FORECAST MAKING THE TRACK FORECAST
OF GUSTAV PROBLEMATIC. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IS THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THAT TROUGH EXTENDS DEEPER INTO THE GULF THAN
WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND APPEARS TO STILL BE
DIGGING AS IT IS SHARPENED UP TO THE SOUTH BY THE SMALL UPPER VORTEX
SEEN SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA. THAT TROUGH MAY START TO INFLUENCE THE
MOTION OF GUSTAV EARLY ON IN THE GAME...AND COULD REQUIRE A BIT OF A
SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK BACK TO THE EAST ON SUBESQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES (THAT IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT A POSSIBILITY). WE CAUTION OUR
COMMUNITIES TO NOT FOCUS ON THE LITTLE BLACK DOTTED LINE ON THE
INTERNET IMAGES...AND INSTEAD WE SHOULD STRESS THAT THERE ARE LIKELY
TRACK ERRORS INVOLVED HERE. THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY (THE "CONE")
STILL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR VERY GOOD REASONS...AND WE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.

HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT...THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY IS
PREDICATED UPON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST (WHICH IS ABOUT THE BEST
EDUCATED GUESS THE NWS CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW)...BRINGING POPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE GET ON THE WET
EASTERN SIDE OF GUSTAV...WITH THE CENTER OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE HWRF) IS STILL CLUSTERED WEST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE THE FARTHEST EAST TAKING THE CENTER
OF THEN HURRICANE GUSTAV CLOSER TO THE MOBILE AREA. THE LONGER TERM
TRACK OF GUSTAV OVER THIS WEEKEND WOULD STILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE
DEGREE OF WEAKNESS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THAT RIDGE DETERMINING HOW
FAR EAST OR WEST GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL. FORTUNATELY, THE NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE DOWN THERE TONIGHT GETTING A
MUCH BETTER LOOK AT THE COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
GULF. THE MORE DETAILED DATA FROM THOSE MISSIONS SHOULD START
GETTING INTO THE TRACK MODELS AND SHOULD HELP THE NWS GAIN A
SOMEWHAT CLEARER PICTURE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK EVOLUTION OF
GUSTAV. STAY TUNED.

BEYOND TUESDAY...WE KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
GULFMEX...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY...THEN
WE WILL NEED TO START WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENTS WITH HANNA TO THE
EAST. /05

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM
JAMAICA TODAY AND INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STATUS AS IT HEADS
NORTHWEST FOR THE CAYMANS. IF PLANNING FOR SOME BOATING
RECREATION...BEST FIT IT IN TODAY AND FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT...EFFECTS FROM GUSTAV WILL BEGIN MAKING AN IMPACT. FORECASTERS
ANTICIPATE A SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN SWELL/SEA HEIGHT BEGINNING SUNDAY
AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR
GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE...MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST GULF. THE LATEST TRACK IS KEYING ON SOUTH LOUISIANA AS
POTENTIAL LANDFALL BY LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR SEAS TO BUILD UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 FEET OVER THE
ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY. REMEMBER...DO
NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV...BUT THE THREAT CONE
AS ERRORS CAN BE 225 MILES ON DAY 4 AND 300 MILES ON DAY 5 EITHER
SIDE OF THE TRACK. FROM THE LATEST 09Z TRACK...OUR AREA REMAINS A
POTENTIAL TARGET. ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

&&

[shah8]

How fast are they saying it will go?

[tolakram]

Center, the MLC anyway, clearly evident now in this loop.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Scorpion]

The Caymans are going to get rocked.

[jasons2k]

What is going on? I have relaxed the last 24 hours with all the models trending west, now I hear ppl saying Florida may not be out of the woods? Can someone please explain, Thanks!

The Florida talk is going overboard.

There may be a "temporary" move more to the NNW as Gustav crosses Cuba, but the storm is then going to resume a NW or WNW movement towards most likely LA or possibly the upper Texas Coast around the ridge. The NHC has no mention of this coming towards Tampa although some are interpreting a "temporary" movement to mean that.

There is, of course, still a chance this could impact the Fl Panhandle, but that's it for now.

so you are telling me that if i lived in tampa to key west it is unacceptable to talk about gustav impacting that area in a serious way.....sorry that is wrong...because u don't want to uncessarily scare people?......this is not going out on public broad cast radio.......and based on your comment people on this board on the west gulf side of florida would be afraid to post now ...for fear of back lash...........there is tons of uncertainty... florida keys to tampa residents should be free to comment ........what do you tell them SHOULD a track shift more east occur tonite or sunday. jasons i'm sorry for replying i just thought we are all under stress and with the uncertainty , the talk is warranted, that's all (esp with some models showing a very large tropical storm radius in the GOM)

I never said it was unacceptable to speculate or discuss, especially if there is some reasoning or data to back it up. You just never know with a tropical system. Yes, this may be a large and intense storm in the Gulf and SW Florida may experience beach erosion, squalls in feeder bands, heavy rain, etc., but not the apocolypse based on the current forecast or any modeling whatsoever.

But because of a temporary north movement due to the trough some people want to jump the gun and equate this to Ernesto? Sorry, but peninsular Florida has bigger worries right now and it starts with a different letter of the alphabet.

Yes, here at Storm2K we encourage discussion. We encourage opinions. We encourage questions. But sometimes when people make a post with misinformation, it's like stepping on an ant hill - and it needs to be curtailed before it gets out of control. This may not be the radio, but it is the internet with a very wide-ranging audience all over the world and since it is printed media, people can copy/paste/email to anyone. We have to be cognizant of that.

I hope you understand where we are coming from.

Lastly, if you have a concern with how the board is moderated - please PM us and call it to our attention. We will be glad to take a step back and evaluate it. But arguing with the staff on the open board is one thing that is certainly not acceptable.

Thank you for your cooperation.

EDIT: If anyone has any questions or concerns, please PM me. This is not posted for a discussion about this in this thread but for informational purposes only. Thanks.

[bahamaswx]

I see absolutely nothing to hold Gustav back until he hits Cuba.

[Dean4Storms]

This trough digging deeper certainly could lead to Gustav turning more NNW or NW sooner and sharper than what the NHC track suggests and it could cause the track to shift further east bit by bit throughout today if the sharper turn materializes. Everyone from TX to the FL Panhandle should stay up to date on this situation.

[Janie2006]

Last night one of the local TV mets stated that viewers could breathe a little easier since his area (Mobile-Pensacola) was on the far side of the cone and Gustav was trending westward (last night, that is). He advised people not to cancel their Labor Day plans but just "keep an eye" on Gustav. Such advice was premature, to say the least. In fact, it borders on irresponsible because the clear implication was that it is much less of a worry for Mobile or Pensacola. I'll bet he's eating a lot of crow right now. People need to be getting prepared given the uncertainty, the relative closeness of the NHC track, the margin of error, and possible intensification of the system (along with the attendant expansion of the wind fields).

[Ivanhater]

Last night one of the local TV mets stated that viewers could breathe a little easier since his area (Mobile-Pensacola) was on the far side of the cone and Gustav was trending westward (last night, that is). He advised people not to cancel their Labor Day plans but just "keep an eye" on Gustav. Such advice was premature, to say the least. In fact, it borders on irresponsible because the clear implication was that it is much less of a worry for Mobile or Pensacola. I'll bet he's eating a lot of crow right now. People need to be getting prepared given the uncertainty, the relative closeness of the NHC track, the margin of error, and possible intensification of the system (along with the attendant expansion of the wind fields).

Yep..thats because if they were really good at their job they would look further into the NHC package and know what the models are doing and the discussion about the very high uncertainty..models trending east..Fox 10 jason smith this morning is doing a fantastic job keeping the viewers informed of the latest trends east with the models

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly Janie, there have been numerous people on here doing the same thing and it is VERY irresponsible especially when the NHC maintains there is still a good bit of uncertainty.

EVERYONE FROM TEXAS TO THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD WATCH THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY!!!!

[KWT]

Well the advice still should be and always should have been to be alert throughout the gulf of Gustav.

That big burst of convection is really wrapping around the western side now and also onto the southern side, no doubts thats the eyewall bursting there.

[cpdaman]

if i was in key west i would also be watching it like a hawk

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html click tropical points

Key west is at 24.7 /82 w not THAAT far from the 22.6 83.8 forecast point (especially when you see it on the maps)

sure key west is not in the cone and it is not forecast to be there, but you tell me what a 100 mile shift to the right would do to that forecast for KYW, = the outer extent of the right front quad of a major. HIsotry would tell you it is unlikey but not unreasonable, wouldn't you think it is a no brainer to prepare either way! i mean they really STICK out to the SW

[Extratropical1]

This is why (and I know alot wont agree) I wish the NHC would discontinue posting the 5-day cone. When did they start posting the 5-day anyways?? Seems to be more of a hinderance than a help (in most cases) until the models are better at handling climatology. Just my opinion.

[inda_iwall]

IvanHater, As a person who become homeless for a while after Ivan, i too am a hater, but it seems I am like you and still want to have it come this way in a sick twisted way, just not very intense, something about the anticipation and excitement of a hurricane, but my god does it lose its gloss and appeal quickly after!! Big hurricanes suck!! I hope everyone remembers what happened in the last big north gulf coast canes and gets away from it. I know I am running this time if it going to be a 3 or bigger. I live in North Hill, prob 50 feet or more above sea level in an old small sturdy brick home that most likely will be fine, but no electricity in the middle of a southern summer is no fun at all. Sorry for this being off topic somewhat. Just everyone in its path, if you have never been in a big storm, heed the warnings and advice.

[Derek Ortt]

This is why (and I know alot wont agree) I wish the NHC would discontinue posting the 5-day cone. When did they start posting the 5-day anyways?? Seems to be more of a hinderance than a help (in most cases) until the models are better at handling climatology. Just my opinion.

the models are fine

a 5 day forecast has a lower error than a 3 day forecast 15 years ago.

In a few years, they may be doing 7 day forecasts