ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jasons2k]

Thanks Wxman57. Do you think that the Houston-Galveston area will only see rain and some gusty winds (with the current track that Dolly is on)?

I've been watering my lawn today.

Yep, I'm about to water myself (yet again.......)

I posted yesterday (in a special, secret secure location only for Mods) that I thought this was a TX storm with the target from Brownsville to Corpus. I may have posted that in this thread too this morning many many pages back.

Anyway, I have no reason to change ATTM. I still think Brownsville to Corpus is the target area as a Cat. 2, maybe stronger depending on the overnight events.

I don't see any real plausible scenarios for a Houston-Galveston hit unless something very dramatic changes.*

*As they say, you just never know for sure.

[O Town]

[canegrl04]

Locally here in Dallas the mets are showing models that make Dolly landfall just North of Brownsville

[funster]

I notice now that all the forecast tracks plotted on Skeetobite are making this a TEXAS landfall. (With the exception of UKMET.)

Too early for the pro's here to hazard a guess on that??

see the tropical analysis forum for this information

Hurricane conditions as far north as Matagorda, TX. Interesting situation.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042008.html

I bookmarked your website - thanks for info.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is very good outflow this thing is starting to develop, also you can see it forming a CDO. So it should not be long now.

[jeff]

Any idea about the high that is over texas? Is it expected to move out at the last minute, or stay strong??

The high will weaken some Tuesday allowing Dolly to slow.

I would issue warnings at 1000pm from South of KBRO to just north of KCRP...Rockport with TS warning up to Port O Connor. I would remove all the upper TX coast from advisories.

[RL3AO]

2125z


2325z

[jeff]

I notice now that all the forecast tracks plotted on Skeetobite are making this a TEXAS landfall. (With the exception of UKMET.)

Too early for the pro's here to hazard a guess on that??

see the tropical analysis forum for this information

Hurricane conditions as far north as Matagorda, TX. Interesting situation.

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042008.html

I bookmarked your website - thanks for info.

Sustained hurricane conditions to Matagorda is a bit of a stretch...maybe Port O Connor at the most north and even there it is not very likely. Most hurricane conditions should be kept Rockport S and likely even S of KCRP....although it may be close at KCRP.

[KWT]

Exactly Normandy thats what I've been saying for ages even when everyone thought it looked rubbish I aid to look at the banding and how impressive it was. now we've got some deeper convection its starting to look like a much more impressive system.
Stil lnot totally there yet mind you but I think we are probably 6-9hrs away from really rapid deepening starting to to occur.

That outflow is really impressive on that northern side, its huge as well!

[drezee]

THE ESTIMATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES???

URNT15 was 998mb

[O Town]

This thing looks like a mushroom cloud blowing up, it got so big, the outflow is nuts.

[KWT]

drezee, they normally do up the pressure a little bit as those pressures found by recons are usually just estimates. anyway fair to say this is a strengthening tropical storm we have right now.

RL3AO, convection has relaly filled up the central part of the storm its like the convection has fleshed it out.

[Cainer]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already (this thread moves so fast!), but Dolly has already claimed 12 lives: a family in Guatemala were all killed when a landslide triggered by Dolly's rains buried their house. Hopefully the death toll won't amount to anything much higher.

[jeff]

Note: State has activated the fuel plan as supplies are taking a good hit along the coast. No major evacs. will be ordered as there is no time and really no need.

Will likely see voluntary evacs. for S Padre early Tuesday.

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already (this thread moves so fast!), but Dolly has already claimed 12 lives: a family in Guatemala were all killed when a landslide triggered by Dolly's rains buried their house. Hopefully the death toll won't amount to anything much higher.

Yep. Both parents and ten kids.

[Cape Verde]

Sustained hurricane conditions to Matagorda is a bit of a stretch...maybe Port O Connor at the most north and even there it is not very likely. Most hurricane conditions should be kept Rockport S and likely even S of KCRP....although it may be close at KCRP.

I think the warnings for Matagorda apply to surf conditions.

[Hyperstorm]

I'm still seeing the mid-level easterly and southeasterly shear that I talked about earlier this afternoon. With this, I don't expect rapid intensification overnight, although it certainly could increase intensity by 10-15 mph. Once that diminishes, it will likely strengthen very rapidly. That may not happen until late tomorrow. We shall see...

[Steve H.]

Yes, she does look to be slowing down, and organizing.

[KWT]

jeff do you think there willbe any major Evacs if this system really ramps up in the next 12hrs, or is there not really the time. i hope we don't have a set-up where we have a rapidly strengthening hurricane with people really only having one full day to get prepared.

[jeff]

Sustained hurricane conditions to Matagorda is a bit of a stretch...maybe Port O Connor at the most north and even there it is not very likely. Most hurricane conditions should be kept Rockport S and likely even S of KCRP....although it may be close at KCRP.

I think the warnings for Matagorda apply to surf conditions.

The watces are not issued on surf conditions...those could be handled with heavy surf adv of coastal flood watch/warnings. TS Watches/Warnings are for TS conditions...sustained 40mph winds or greater.