ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

cpdaman, thats going way over the top, if anything motion has back down to a WNW, 290 type motion, that NW jog seems to be just that for now. I suspect there could be some nice storms over the keys but that'll be it.

[Extratropical1]

7-day?? I will go insane for sure lol. Thanks for the info

[Sabanic]

cpdaman, thats going way over the top, if anything motion has back down to a WNW, 290 type motion, that NW jog seems to be just that for now. I suspect there could be some nice storms over the keys but that'll be it.

From the NHC 11:00 AM Discussion . . .


GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO
THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS..

[cycloneye]

Eye feature starting to clear?

[cpdaman]

cpdaman, thats going way over the top, if anything motion has back down to a WNW, 290 type motion, that NW jog seems to be just that for now. I suspect there could be some nice storms over the keys but that'll be it.

no it's not! AFM called for WNW so does 11 am discussion , that is clear. then it calls for a bend nw and to stay that way for a while. (5am talked about a period of NNW possible over cuba) should that happen storm would be a little further east during it's closest path to the keys. I did not say landfall there, i did not even hint at that as being possible, i said i would watch it, i don't get these attacks, seriously (do you not understand where key west is..it is far from miami and mainland florida i mean it really sticks out there) . ever heard the line better safe than sorry

[KWT]

Yeah cpdaman I did say there may be some nice storms but the system is at the moment heading WNW...the general motion between 290-310 should continue for the next 24-36hrs as well. We may see a NNW turn over western Cuba...but even IF the system was east of the NHC the furtherest would still be a good 80 miles away from the center.

the Dry tortugas may need a TS watch though given this will be a pretty big system by then if the forecasts are correct.

[deltadog03]

Yah, if there is going to be any nnw movement it wouldnt happen until it hits that trof near cuba.

[cpdaman]

Yeah cpdaman I did say there may be some nice storms but the system is at the moment heading WNW...the general motion between 290-310 should continue for the next 24-36hrs as well. We may see a NNW turn over western Cuba...but even IF the system was east of the NHC the furtherest would still be a good 80 miles away from the center.

the Dry tortugas may need a TS watch though given this will be a pretty big system by then if the forecasts are correct.

yes i agree for the most part KWT and both could be within decent sustained tropical storm force winds

[Stormcenter]

superfly, I think this system may go right over there as it happens, think my idea may have to be shunted a little further east, I was thinking C.LA but given the jog to the right and the more southerly trough I think this may get a little further east.

I also think it hits there as a major hurricane...

GFS just shifted westward some more toward SW La.

[Dave C]

Yea Cycloneye, I think that's what they call a banding eye forming,if I have the right terminology.

[Wx_Warrior]

Enough with the "TEXAS TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE"....I think we got that part down by now!

[Dean4Storms]

Already beginning to see a flattening of the UL cirrus outflow from Gustav to the NW as it hits the trough in WV imagery.

[Air Force Met]

This is why (and I know alot wont agree) I wish the NHC would discontinue posting the 5-day cone. When did they start posting the 5-day anyways?? Seems to be more of a hinderance than a help (in most cases) until the models are better at handling climatology. Just my opinion.

the models are fine

a 5 day forecast has a lower error than a 3 day forecast 15 years ago.

In a few years, they may be doing 7 day forecasts

They already are...just not released I think.

[Sabanic]

Already beginning to see a flattening of the UL cirrus outflow from Gustav to the NW as it hits the trough in WV imagery.

Dean isn't that what is going to cause the more NW turn?

[jasons2k]

Let's stop with the one-liners and stick to posts of substance please. Thanks.

[Dean4Storms]

Already beginning to see a flattening of the UL cirrus outflow from Gustav to the NW as it hits the trough in WV imagery.

Dean isn't that what is going to cause the more NW turn?

Yes and I think it is happening further east than what was expected.

I am waiting for the models after the G-IV mission today, I think it will go along way to sort out this scenario.

[cpdaman]

Already beginning to see a flattening of the UL cirrus outflow from Gustav to the NW as it hits the trough in WV imagery.

Dean isn't that what is going to cause the more NW turn?

Yes and I think it is happening further east than what was expected.

I am waiting for the models after the G-IV mission today, I think it will go along way to sort out this scenario.

what time is that G-IV mission today i am very intrested in that

[Steve]

>>Yes and I think it is happening further east than what was expected.

Center a hair west of the previous plot. So far, Gustav following official prognosis +/-. Any temporary short term deviation would be shunted slightly north, but there is little reason to believe unless it really picked up forward motion, that Gustav would take a more easterly course than say Hancock or Harrison County Mississippi. As you know, I am not a state-caster and I actually live about 40 miles away from landfall in the middle of the sugarcane fields. I'm not predicting a hit on my parish or my state, but I think it's pretty obvious, at least this far out, that there is a strong consensus. We'll just have to wait to see whether that holds or not. You may recall that for Hurricane Katrina, NHC was in Escambia/Okaloosa prior to the shift in all globals toward SELA/SWMS which took hold just as Katrina was moving SW away from the tip of Florida. It was roughly 60 hours out. So unless there is a radical shift sometime in the next day or so, which there doesn't appear to be, the likelihood of landfall is somewhere between Vermillion Bay and Gulfport. If I were the NHC, based on their recent tracks, I would assume you guys would be in a TS Warning/Hurricane Watch scenario in case anything changed and brought Gustav further up toward the east - speed (would be out in front of the trough split) or intensity (no telling exactly how that plays out).

This is not an official post and do not rely on it for any information.

Steve

[duris]

OK, have officially decided that it was appropriate to list the Times-Picayune's "expert" with the quotation marks. He says this am: "Such a strong storm is likely to be accompanied by significant storm surge to the east of its central area, and its surge could be higher than that caused by a 115 mph storm, as Gustav is expected to have winds near 130 mph, Category 4 strength, 12 hours before landfall." Correct me if I'm wrong, but the NHC never said that. Yes. it acknowledged that the intensity could be higher. Strikes me as irresponsible that this "expert" is making such unqualified statements.

By the way, here's his "expertise": Hurricane and environment reporter Mark Schleifstein is co-author of The Times-Picayune's 2002 series, "Washing Away," which warned that much of New Orleans could be flooded by hurricane storm surge because the area's levees were too low and subject to overtopping. The series - which won awards from the National Hurricane Conference and the American Society of Civil Engineers - received international attention after Hurricane Katrina, because it had foretold the disaster lying in wait for the city.

[cycloneye]