ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jeff]

jeff do you think there willbe any major Evacs if this system really ramps up in the next 12hrs, or is there not really the time. i hope we don't have a set-up where we have a rapidly strengthening hurricane with people really only having one full day to get prepared.

There is no time...call for evacs and have people stuck on the freeways when the storm moves ashore. If it really ramps up on Tuesday the plan it to clear the barrier islands and shelter inland out of the surge zone. Luckily landfall location is very unpopulated...although to be on the safe side I would leave SPI early Tuesday.

[KWT]

what if it trends a little to the south jeff then there could be nearly 1,000,000 people that could be hit by strong winds. Still its one of those horrible set-ups and hopefully it won't ever get strong enough for that to rear its ugly head.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already (this thread moves so fast!), but Dolly has already claimed 12 lives: a family in Guatemala were all killed when a landslide triggered by Dolly's rains buried their house. Hopefully the death toll won't amount to anything much higher.

Were those rains due to Dolly? Where they due to the wave that became Genevieve? (which I think they were). Or were they diurnal onvection? I just looked at the sat loop and those rains do not seem to have been caused by Dolly

[RL3AO]

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already (this thread moves so fast!), but Dolly has already claimed 12 lives: a family in Guatemala were all killed when a landslide triggered by Dolly's rains buried their house. Hopefully the death toll won't amount to anything much higher.

Were those rains due to Dolly? Where they due to the wave that became Genevieve? (which I think they were). Or were they diurnal onvection? I just looked at the sat loop and those rains do not seem to have been caused by Dolly

Not sure. This is the article.

http://www.radionetherlands.nl/news/international/5884098/Tropical-storm-Dolly-kills-12-in-Guatemala

This one says 21 dead but doesn't mention Dolly. I'm guessing you are right.

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90852/6454594.html

[HURAKAN]

AL, 04, 2008072200, , BEST, 0, 230N, 920W, 45, 999, TS,

[KatDaddy]

What a huge system. There is no doubt the Upper TX Coast will get a few squalls and some gusty winds perhaps up to 35mph. Thanksfully thats all I expect and we could use the rain. With a system of this size I expect it will have a difficult time really organizing. Its still crusing along and at this rate it could be onshore tomorrow at this time. Thats my 2 cents for the evening.........disclaimer...not an official forecast.

[KWT]

Holding winds at 45kts I see for the next advisory but the central pressure is being dropped to 999mbs, I'd have thought it won't be long if we keep seeing those sorts of pressure drops before the winds ramp up in response.

[jeff]

what if it trends a little to the south jeff then there could be nearly 1,000,000 people that could be hit by strong winds. Still its one of those horrible set-ups and hopefully it won't ever get strong enough for that to rear its ugly head.

A southward trend and hit just S of KBRO would be bad with surge up the River outlets. Still there is not enough time to pull off a valley wide evac. Regional shelters to strongest structures it the best case of action right now.

State is planning to come in hard on recovery with widespread power outages expected...that it their top priority right now along the the 138,000 S TX special needs residents.

[Smurfwicked]

Wow, moving straight west now. That was pretty unexpected huh?

[Cape Verde]

The watces are not issued on surf conditions...those could be handled with heavy surf adv of coastal flood watch/warnings. TS Watches/Warnings are for TS conditions...sustained 40mph winds or greater.

Agreed, but when the TS watch was issued for Matagorda, at least the radio guys were casting it into the context of the surf. The upper Texas coast is on alert, but nobody is tying down their pool furniture.

[wxman57]

Wow, moving straight west now. That was pretty unexpected huh?

West does not mean 270. West goes all the way to 281.25 degrees.

[jeff]

The watces are not issued on surf conditions...those could be handled with heavy surf adv of coastal flood watch/warnings. TS Watches/Warnings are for TS conditions...sustained 40mph winds or greater.

Agreed, but when the TS watch was issued for Matagorda, at least the radio guys were casting it into the context of the surf. The upper Texas coast is on alert, but nobody is tying down their pool furniture.

Well the radio guys were wrong...In fact the TS watch that far up the coast was probably a little overkill by NHC. This will all be lowered later this evening or early Tuesday. Now coastal flood watch may be needed with tides forecast to reach near 3.5-4.0 feet along the upper TX coast Wed AM high tide. That is nearing or exceeding the coastal flooding threshold on the west end of the Island and W side of Galveston Bay. May see some higher tides in Matagorda and Lavaca Bays.

Swell run-up will also be an issued Wed as long period swells reach the coast and run water up the beaches.

[TexWx]

Looks like some moisture might be filling in on the southern side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[mf_dolphin]

Wow, moving straight west now. That was pretty unexpected huh?

Actually it's not moving straight west. You can't measure storm motion accurately from the floater loops. Storms never move in a straight line and you'll drive yourself and everyone else nuts if you report every wobble. Look at the movement over time, like between advisories, and you'll have a better view of the storms true motion.

[KWT]

wxman57 what would you estimate is the current movement?
I think if it goes to the south its the worst case situation that can happen, would put the eyewall pretty close to Bro...

[jeff]

Looks like some moisture might be filling in on the southern side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

It was pulling in some dry air from the Yucatan this morning and afternoon, but that should be done now. Convection should start to fill in to the SE of the center now.

[cpdaman]

yup each wind direction N, NNE, NE, ENE ....etc encompasses 22.5 degrees.

like wxman57 just said West starts at 270 and is 11.25 in either direction.


so west at 280 is not much change from WNW at 285

[srainhoutx]

[Cyclone1]

I gotta say, it's a beautiful tropical storm right now.

[Frank P]

Dolly sure looks to have quite a large wind field... this could add to the storm surge potential for the strike area to the right of where center goes inland... not sure what the lower Tx coast storm surge multiplier is but I would expect it to be similar but perhaps a little less than the MS coast area...

One lesson I learned during Isadore back in 02 was that she generate quite a surge due to the size of her wind field... max winds we got at best were in the 50-60 mph range as she never regained hurricane status after coming back out of Mexico entering the GOM, but in Biloxi we experience the second highest surge since Camille, with about a 8-9 foot surge in West Biloxi, quite unexpected.. I think the predictions were in the 5-6 foot range... I sat in my front yard in a lawn chair for most of the event and watched the surge roll in and deposit the Collesium pier in front of my house.. first time since Camille a surge reached the sea wall in my neighborhood, and from a tropical storm.. unfortunately Katrina is now our benchmark for storm surge...