ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

It's looking more and more like a hurricane and RECON is almost there to find out!

[gboudx]

what time is that G-IV mission today i am very intrested in that

1730UTC.

[Agua]

and it usually takes a while for all the data collected from the G IV to be ingested.

[cpdaman]

what time is that G-IV mission today i am very intrested in that

1730UTC.

thank you very much

it is going to be very simple to track the "center" of gustav very soon

i would be in total shock if recon does not find a hurricane during the next hour

[haml8]

Look carefully, is that gustav in the background?? This was taken from the Google Earth webcams in Georgetown.. I am not saying it is, but it certainly looks like a wall cloud.

[MGC]

Steve, bite your tongue sir, no Hancock or Harrison counties for me! I promised myself not to start freaking out until after the new models are out that include the Gulfstream data. I have not begun any storm preps yet. We didn't unpack after the TS Fay threat so we can get the property buttoned up pretty quick. We have just started to discuss what to do with our parents. My Mother will die if she is exposed to prolonged excessive heat so she is my greatest concern. If Gustav does directly hit the NO metro area I think I am going to bring her to Disney World. Remember the elderly as the majority of deaths from Katrina were the elderly. Looks like Gustav is approaching hurricane intensity......MGC

[Yankeegirl]

well after reading jeff's emil, i think texas is gettin ready!! think i am going to go to the store today... before the rush,... and if i get gas now, it will be gone before next week!! i have a 4 runner and a camaro.... gas guzzlers!!!

[Just Joshing You]

FL Winds are at TS strength and it hasn't even gotten CLOSE to the center.

[gboudx]

Looking at the GoM WV loop of the trough digging down. Does it look like a circulation starting to twist north of the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Steve]

>>Steve, bite your tongue sir, no Hancock or Harrison counties for me! I promised myself not to start freaking out until after the new models are out that include the Gulfstream data. I have not begun any storm preps yet. We didn't unpack after the TS Fay threat so we can get the property buttoned up pretty quick. We have just started to discuss what to do with our parents. My Mother will die if she is exposed to prolonged excessive heat so she is my greatest concern. If Gustav does directly hit the NO metro area I think I am going to bring her to Disney World. Remember the elderly as the majority of deaths from Katrina were the elderly. Looks like Gustav is approaching hurricane intensity......MGC

Not sure the Gulfstream data is really going to do all that much. We want the sampling and all, but the synoptic setup is pretty apparent - or should be - to everyone. Unless they just don't have a notch or nook or something in one of the upper features, we have a trough splitting off to the west of Gustav, a high moving east with a shortwave swingnig through then another high behind that coming down which would reinforce the Bemuda as it builds back westward with Hanna underneath it. I don't believe the Gulfstream info fed in is going to result in anything radical that wouldn't naturally occur with the evolution of time anyway. We're still at a point with well over a 200nm error in track so clearly the cone is the big thing to look at now. I'd bet anything but my life or my *** that Gustav will strike within that cone. However, should timing become an issue - faster or slower forward motion, obviously there are increased chances of threats to the east or west accordingly.

FYI, it doesn't look good. I live in Lafourche Parish in an area that hasn't had standing water since Hurricane Juan in 1985 (which didn't flood many homes as far up as we are). But being surrounded by water and protected only by a levee north of Golden Meadow and then a floodwall at Larose, I don't think I'm in a position to take any chances. I'd likely stay, but I have all 3 of my kids this weekend, so we're going to likely hightail it out either Sunday afternoon or Sunday night depending on traffic.

Steve

[Just Joshing You]

looking at that water vapor loop... it is clearly going west towards the end. And my has it organized.

[Steve]

>>Looking at the GoM WV loop of the trough digging down. Does it look like a circulation starting to twist north of the Yucatan?

Yep. That would be a combination of that piece of upper energy that was off appy this morning along with the trough split. If you look toward the keys, you can see the origin of what appears to be a pattern reversal which could mean a pretty solid upper environment after the nose of that trough and that spin begin to move off to the W/WSW/SW (24-48 hour period). Almost scary in that if Gustav was a tropical wave right now, I would guarantee you that in its setup, it would be headed for named-storm status.

All I'm going to say on that trough.

Steve

[dwg71]

Its not moving west, convection is getting blown to the west, not sure why its not intensifying quicker. i dont expect to find a hurricane, I could be wrong, but dont think its one yet.

JMO

[southerngale]

well after reading jeff's emil, i think texas is gettin ready!! think i am going to go to the store today... before the rush,... and if i get gas now, it will be gone before next week!! i have a 4 runner and a camaro.... gas guzzlers!!!

Can you post it? I used to get them, but I don't have that email address anymore.

[txwatcher91]

IMO based on satellite recon will find a strengthening 80-85mph cane and a pressure between 978-984.

[ALhurricane]

The trough that continues to dig into the Gulf better get out of the way fast or Gustav may not find itself in as hospitable of an environment for strengthening down the road. The latest 300 and 250 mb fields off the GFS does not depict an environment all that conducive to maintaining a major hurricane, IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

well after reading jeff's emil, i think texas is gettin ready!! think i am going to go to the store today... before the rush,... and if i get gas now, it will be gone before next week!! i have a 4 runner and a camaro.... gas guzzlers!!!

Can you post it? I used to get them, but I don't have that email address anymore.

All he said was that he was doing confernece calls. IMO nothing to get alarmed about but it never hurts to be safe then sorry.

[Nexus]

Cayman Islands, looking SSE:

http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-live.htm

[dwg71]

If that is an eye like feature, its north of nhc track. lets see what recon find.

[Stormcenter]

The trough that continues to dig into the Gulf better get out of the way fast or Gustav may not find itself in as hospitable of an environment for strengthening down the road. The latest 300 and 250 mb fields off the GFS does not depict an environment all that conducive to maintaining a major hurricane, IMO.

How long would these poor conditions exists?