ATL: IKE Discussion

[dwg71]

Still 5 days away from landfall, track could have been even further west if they wanted to, but hedged bets. Lets see what GFS does here shortly and then we can see if the west trend continues or not.

[rtd2]

290* and closer to the Keys if it doesn't correct.

i think the warnings for the keys have been discontinued? as of 5pm

The Hurricane Watch was, the TS Warning remains.

TY I 'm too tired to look it up

[MBryant]

"For the record. Carla was September 11/12, 1961"

I was three and remember it well (I'm really NOT kidding). I think it's where my interest in hurricanes began.

[Sanibel]

Ah, Cuban radar makes it more like 285* at the most. And it will probably correct itself.

Land interaction probably.

[KWT]

Sanibel, yeah thats probably closer to the true heading right now it seems to be matching the Cuban coast, not getting any closer really then what it is right now it seems.

Remember everyone Ike will have the best part of 96hrs over gulfs waters to power up. Plenty of time for this to become a large major hurricane once again.

[MBryant]

What's the convection in the Bay of Campeche all about? It has colder cloud tops than Ike.

[fasterdisaster]

I think the wobble already corrected itself looking at the last frame. Also he's consistently getting better organized.

[cycloneye]

Inner core getting better per last VDM:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

[jasons2k]

PM update form Jeff Lindner:

Dangerous hurricane forecast to impact the TX coast this weekend.

Preparations for the strike of a major hurricane should begin on Tuesday.

Current:

Ike is now moving at 275 degrees instead of the earlier 265 and hugging the southern Cuban coast. Reports from the aircraft this afternoon inducate the inner core has been damaged while crossing Cuba and the winds are reduced to 80mph and this could be on the generous side. Ike is over the water and should maintain category 1 intensity as it crosses W Cuba and enters the Gulf late Tuesday.

Track:

Guidance is developed a larger spread this afternoon after being tightly clustered at the upper TX coast. 12Z global runs have shifted way westward with the GFS now showing a hit near CRP and curving N into C TX, the GFDL and HWRF right through Brazoria County. The model consensus is now aimed at Matagorda County. We are in a trend and it is very possible te guidance will keep shifting south and west as it is clear the ridge over the southern US is much stronger than first expected.

At 400pm NHC has commited to a strike in eastern Matagorda County or western Brazoria County. I think the models will trend more westward and then ever so slightly trend back eastward as we saw with Rita keeping the strike zone in the middle to upper TX coast.

Given this west shift much all of our area would be significantly impactd with adverse conditions as the dirty side of the hurricane would strike most of SE TX.

NOTE: track errors at days 4-5 can be 250 miles so this track is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire TX coast should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall.

Intensity:

No real change here...will still expect a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico....and everyone should be preparing for such.

Note:

GIV mission was flown today and all Gulf coast NWS offices are launching soundings every 6 hours in support of NHC forecasting operations. This additional data will go into the models to help solidify the forecast tracks.

[WmE]

Inner core getting better per last VDM:

L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

Doesn't the very same VDM include a second eye with a diameter of 50 nm?

edit: It doesn't seem to have finished the ERC yet.

[Sanibel]

No, I'll take a gamble this time. It's solid 290* and WNW and ain't comin back to west.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think the track will shift further than Northern Mexico, but I think that's where this may end up...They keep moving it further and further in that direction...I don't see it being a BOC storm though, but it may make a landfall in Northern Mexico and avoid the USA all together...

[fasterdisaster]

I don't think the track will shift further than Northern Mexico, but I think that's where this may end up...They keep moving it further and further in that direction...I don't see it being a BOC storm though, but it may make a landfall in Northern Mexico and avoid the USA all together...

Do you have any reasoning for this at all other than not wanting it to hit the US?

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think the track will shift further than Northern Mexico, but I think that's where this may end up...They keep moving it further and further in that direction...I don't see it being a BOC storm though, but it may make a landfall in Northern Mexico and avoid the USA all together...

Do you have any reasoning for this at all other than not wanting it to hit the US?

The trend is your friend....

and I think the ridge to the north mayl be too strong to move it north of the mexico border...

[Wx_Warrior]

It was explained to me very simple: IT'S ALL ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH.

Who will it help, who will it hurt?

[kurtpage]

ConvergenceZone...from a Met earlier in this thread (just about 2 pages back)

Air Force Met wrote:

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

So he thinks that this is normal and will work its way back up to the middle coast.

[TampaFl]

5:00pm position:

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like Ike is going to have a BIG eye when he comes out of his ERC.

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone...from a Met earlier in this thread (just about 2 pages back)

Air Force Met wrote:

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

So he thinks that this is normal and will work its way back up to the middle coast.

hmm, guess we'll just have to wait and see...

[Wx_Warrior]

Then y move the track at all?