ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[meteorologyman]

Am I seeing convection forming in the eye now do a close up over the naked swirl and it would look like convection build???

Please state if I'm wrong or right

[Bocadude85]

was the initial NW motion based on this being a bit stronger and in the 500-850 nw flow

seems it is weaker and in the low level flow heading right for the spin of death

by the way does anyone remember if andrew's LLC went literally thru the ULL's center - i have a hard time believing it did and survived-

it doesn't matter, see my post above, the ULL is starting to gradually pull WSW like the models forecasted.

gator with all respect i can't see this ull moving WSW now

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif better detail there

all i see is that the convection on the east side of the ULL appears to be moving closer to the ull's center, i thought i saw the ULL moving wsw earlier this morning, i'm not so sure it's moving yet...but hey i could be wrong

actually with the links you both provided I can see the ULLmoving wsw...very slowly though

[WhirlWind]

Are you kidding, I leave for a little bit this morning and come back to find all this going on... Looks like we are in for more rain, just what Florida needs!!!
Thanks to all who keeps us informed, up to date, and sane throughout the entire tropical storm season....
WhirlWind

[alienstorm]

Scary

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 20 1992

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
ANDREW REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ANDREW WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES...360 KM...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

PASCH

[lbvbl]

after hanna makes that SW or WSW dip thats indicated in the models, is it expected to continue SW or take a more westernly track?

[LowndesCoFire]

I can see the ULL moving W ever so slightly but no SW component as far as I can see..thats just my eyes.

[tolakram]

Too few frames to tell is the ULL is moving or not.

[LowndesCoFire]

Has anyone see any of the models that put this thing in the GOM eventually as a HUGE storm??

[KWT]

tolakram, yeah its moving so slowly and is so b road that its not really easy to tell if its moving at all right now, that east motion we saw about 6hrs has stopped though.

[LowndesCoFire]

Too few frames to tell is the ULL is moving or not.

I was looking based on the Lon line and thought I saw a tiny W movement at least.

[jlauderdal]

Has anyone see any of the models that put this thing in the GOM eventually as a HUGE storm??

yep the euro does, the euro has had this westerly idea long before the other globals

[RL3AO]

I think we can agree the ULL has stopped moving east which is a start.

[gatorcane]

Has anyone see any of the models that put this thing in the GOM eventually as a HUGE storm??

yep the euro does, the euro has had this westerly idea long before the other globals

The Euro also had Gustav near the Yucatan channel (western tip of Cuba) 10 days out.

[meteorologyman]

Is convection building over center of Hanna just now??

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Bocadude85]

Hanna already has the media's attention here.. saying models bring her very close to S Fl next week and to keep a close eye on her.

[LowndesCoFire]

What does that mean in regard to the model and how it handles Gustav?

[sfwx]

You know there was a hurricane back in 1947 that moved northwest only to go wsw and enter the coast of Florida around south palm beach or northern broward counties as a category 4 hurricane

http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

[jlauderdal]

Has anyone see any of the models that put this thing in the GOM eventually as a HUGE storm??

yep the euro does, the euro has had this westerly idea long before the other globals

The Euro also had Gustav near the Yucatan channel (western tip of Cuba) 10 days out.

yep, euro has sniffed this stuff out well the last week or so..gfs on the other has been very poor with gus and hannah

[Bocadude85]

You know there was a hurricane back in 1947 that moved northwest only to go wsw and enter the coast of Florida around south palm beach or northern broward counties as a category 4 hurricane

http://weather.terrapin.com/wx/DisplayS ... dtype=JAVA

Yea that would be the one Im talking about except the storm did not cross the lake.. so that map has the storm entering the coast to far north.

[tgenius]

My concern is with the hyping media in Miami, they will go to non-stop coverage mode within 3-4 days if it maintains that path.. it almost becomes counter-productive as one cannot live their life as they are accustomed to (including FOOTBALL starting up!)