ATL: IKE Discussion

[kurtpage]

Then y move the track at all?

ask the met....

[KWT]

Inner eyewall better defined, looks like the system still can't decide which one it wants to dominate.

For now the inner one should win as the outer eyewall is still half overland and cannot close off, whilst the inner is still over waterthough it is wobbling somewhat to the WNW I notice...

[survived alica]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

[Senobia]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

I'm in SE Texas, too..but I think this statement is a bit excessive.

[PTrackerLA]

Ike appears to be making landfall again right now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Appears to be north of the NHC track. NOGAPS is the only model on SFWMD that shows Ike on the coast as it is now. Not sure if that's significant but I anticipate a tropical storm soon if this continues.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks really bad from a convection standpoint. The structure is still impressive.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks really bad from a convection standpoint. The structure is still impressive.

I don't know what you're talking about, convection's greatly improving.

[survived alica]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

I'm in SE Texas, too..but I think this statement is a bit excessive.

Hey don't kill the messenger, I was just passing along what I was told.

[fasterdisaster]

Ike appears to be making landfall again right now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Appears to be north of the NHC track. NOGAPS is the only model on SFWMD that shows Ike on the coast as it is now. Not sure if that's significant but I anticipate a tropical storm soon if this continues.

I don't think so as it wobbled NW but has resumed west to WNW motion so he might be right onshore but he'll move off momentarily.

[fasterdisaster]

Ike appears to be making landfall again right now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Appears to be north of the NHC track. NOGAPS is the only model on SFWMD that shows Ike on the coast as it is now. Not sure if that's significant but I anticipate a tropical storm soon if this continues.

I forgot to add also that visible is kinda deceptive and hard to tell where his center is. IR is better though not perfect and looking at that I think he's still a few miles offshore.

[cpdaman]

ya as of 545 frame half the eye was coming onshore again he will probably parrallel the coast thru 80.5 west come ashore fully for another 12 or so hours.

probably take him a bit longer to organize after his second landfall is complete

will be interesting to note if the wnw motion continues , it looks like it is the upper end of wnw or lower end of NW i.e 300 or so degrees in last 4-5 hours

[rtd2]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

I'm in SE Texas, too..but I think this statement is a bit excessive.

Hey don't kill the messenger, I was just passing along what I was told.

with statements like that it will get crazy fast I think NOLA did a great job on evacs THIS TIME and other metro's should take note.

[rtd2]

Looks really bad from a convection standpoint. The structure is still impressive.

YES BUT it will probally go back over cuba again and weaken again

[fasterdisaster]

No the NW motion was a wobble and he is now again going WNW and won't be onshore for a long time.

[Txdivermom]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

I'm in SE Texas, too..but I think this statement is a bit excessive.

I can understand thinking it's excessive, but they must take action and encourage everyone to start very early, or they'll have a Rita situation again. Additionally, it takes a lot of time to evac nursing homes, hospitals, etc. and they absolutely must. I work in healthcare and we currently have plans underway that will begin to be executed tomorrow and final decisions made tomorrow afternoon.

Edited because everyone doesn't mean Everyone in Houston...but everyone in areas that NEED to evac.

[shah8]

NOLA did a great job LAST TIME as well. Vastly better than, say, Houston/Galveston.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks really bad from a convection standpoint. The structure is still impressive.

YES BUT it will probally go back over cuba again and weaken again

Guys, he's not going over Cuba for another 12 hours.

[rtd2]

Looks really bad from a convection standpoint. The structure is still impressive.

YES BUT it will probally go back over cuba again and weaken again

Guys, he's not going over Cuba for another 12 hours.

Agreed but I'm still suprised by how much cuba's WEST end knock down gustav

[WmE]

Actually the western side is rather mountainous and Ike was/is undergoing an ERC. So weakening was anticipated.

[stormhorn]

Do my amateur eyes fail me or does that look Mexico bound??

Yes...your eyes are failing you. That is very weak flow on the west end and would not steer Ike into Mexico. Something else would have to appear in order for that to happen.

IMO...these steering charts are WAY overused...they are only good for RIGHT NOW...and you can get that from satellite.

Hmmmmmmmmmm....maybe I'm not such an amateur after all. I made this call around 7 AM this morning. Looking like Ike's making a run for the border. (must have the munchies)