ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Air Force Met]

NHC has forecast the track well. Since it moved a little bit north across the Yucatan, this thing hasn't deviated much from the path. It doesn't look like its going way up the coast.

Latest VDM shows the center is 30 miles SW of the current track...and 15 miles SW of the 8PM advisory location.

[jeff]

jeff do you think there willbe any major Evacs if this system really ramps up in the next 12hrs, or is there not really the time. i hope we don't have a set-up where we have a rapidly strengthening hurricane with people really only having one full day to get prepared.

There is no time...call for evacs and have people stuck on the freeways when the storm moves ashore. If it really ramps up on Tuesday the plan it to clear the barrier islands and shelter inland out of the surge zone. Luckily landfall location is very unpopulated...although to be on the safe side I would leave SPI early Tuesday.

But Corpus and Brownsville are pretty populated. I doubt they should/would evac since they aren't on the coast but they should prepare for strong winds imo.[/quot

Yea.. a lot of people..but they would not evac for a cat 1/2 except barrier islands and low lying areas affected by surge. As far as wind goes...shelter locally in strongest buildings.

[Derek Ortt]

Even so Dolly has much better convection and outflow, the recon is not finding anything strong. In fact the winds are lower then they where this morning. Hard to believe.

Matt, please stick to the facts

the pressure is lower this morning

besides, today it was only supposed to intensify slowly. It has done so. Tomorrow is the day itis supposed to blow up

[cpdaman]

appears to be slowing down to me in the last two frames, this and the movement west (of yucatan) i would think would help southerly inflow and help consolidate this better by morning. lets see if she sucks in those t-storms SE of the bay of cameche.

btw i still see slightly N of west movement i.e 280 ish

[Ed Mahmoud]

1913z VDM: 22 46'N, 90 43'W (22.77N, 90.72W)
0023z VDM: 22 59'N, 91 58'W (22.98N, 91.97W)
Vector between two points: 280 @ 13.7 kt

I was calculating about 285º from eyeball on visible loops, so a turn more to the NW everyone was claiming to see doesn't seem to have happened.

Colder than -70ºC, and I think it is trying to wrap a center. No idea how strong it'll get, recon winds don't seem that high yet, but I've noticed sometimes pressure tanks before winds respond.

[jeff]

Even so Dolly has much better convection and outflow, the recon is not finding anything strong. In fact the winds are lower then they where this morning. Hard to believe.

Matt, please stick to the facts

the pressure is lower this morning

besides, today it was only supposed to intensify slowly. It has done so. Tomorrow is the day itis supposed to blow up

Convection this morning was very intense to the NE of the center...that was likely helpingt he stornger winds. With such a large wind field the PGF will take a little time to catch up the the pressure falls... give it a little time folks. Does a thunderstorms go from no cloud to supercell in 1 minute...no the PROCESS takes time.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Exactly Derek its got lower pressures and has clearly organised in terms of convective coverage over the last 6hrs so I think your right we are going to have to wait for the next 6-12hrs before we see this storm relaly get into top gear once the better inflow conditions develop and also the shear finally totally eases off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so Dolly has much better convection and outflow, the recon is not finding anything strong. In fact the winds are lower then they where this morning. Hard to believe.

Matt, please stick to the facts

the pressure is lower this morning

besides, today it was only supposed to intensify slowly. It has done so. Tomorrow is the day itis supposed to blow up

I will try, but it is pretty hard not to post that the recon was finding 50-55 knot flight level winds this morning and only 45 knot winds now. I'm starting to doubt if I have any idea what I'm talking about my self. I think you maybe right.

I'm having a hard time pulling it together the last few weeks.

[RL3AO]

Very very primitive stages of an eyewall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone with more sophisticated tools know what the heading would be required from the current center to even landfall in the US? It is certainly more than 280º

Because, unofficially, my expectation that this will landfall South of the Rio Bravo del Norte seems even more likely.

Probably not far enough South to prevent hurricane conditions in BRO and SPI, however, if I had to guess.



Amateur and unofficial guess.

[KWT]

Yeah thats interesting RL3AO theres certainly just a hint of that on the southern side of the center, lets see how it evolves. Also that IR image Ed does look really interesting as well.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, will that left hook have any major effect on the longer term track?

Matt, I think we are just going to have to wait for the surface winds to catch up with the deepening of the system in the last few hours.

Its hard to tell if it is just a wobble or a trend. The steering is very complicated since it is moving around the northern end of the TUTT to its south. I think the NHC track is probably a little to far north...and I expect Dolly will move a little west of the current track until it is in the western GoM...then it should hook to the right some...coming in around the Rio Grande.

But...given the complicated steering...and knowing that the models are garbage when trying to forecast what the TUTT will do (they've been spot on so far...right? /sarcasm)...its a tough call.

[Portastorm]

But Corpus and Brownsville are pretty populated. I doubt they should/would evac since they aren't on the coast but they should prepare for strong winds imo.[/quot

Yea.. a lot of people..but they would not evac for a cat 1/2 except barrier islands and low lying areas affected by surge. As far as wind goes...shelter locally in strongest buildings.

There are, unfortunately, hundreds of thousands of Valley residents who live in what are called "colonias." This is essentially sub-standard housing and not up to local codes. Should Dolly be a category 2 at landfall and moving at a decent clip ... and if she moves roughly along the Rio Grande, no one should be surprised when they hear news reports that many thousands of persons will be homeless.

[dwg71]

I think sticking with my 100 miles south of the border may pay off

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it doe's appear to be forming more banding like features around its core, maybe even the first signs of a banding eye. We will see. Now I could be totally off base with this.

[Air Force Met]

Anyone with more sophisticated tools know what the heading would be required from the current center to even landfall in the US? It is certainly more than 280º

It would need to move at 298 from its current location.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone with more sophisticated tools know what the heading would be required from the current center to even landfall in the US? It is certainly more than 280º

It would need to move at 298 from its current location.

THIS IS NO SURPRISE AT ALL TO ME...

[TampaFl]

8pm (7pmcdt) postion - west of forecast track. Map courtesy BoatUSA.com

[TampaFl]

8pm (7pmcdt) postion - west of forecast track. Map courtesy BoatUSA.com