ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

But Ike is not weakening. Not strengthening, yet, but he is not weakening as the pressure is lower.

[rtd2]

Texas is about to have big time evacs. My brother works for the city of Houston and they just had a meeting and they are preparing to start Wed. He said The NHC has told them to expect a cat 3 or above,making landfall between Matorgorda bay and Port Bolivar. Its about to get crazy here.

I'm in SE Texas, too..but I think this statement is a bit excessive.

I can understand thinking it's excessive, but they must take action and encourage everyone to start very early, or they'll have a Rita situation again. Additionally, it takes a lot of time to evac nursing homes, hospitals, etc. and they absolutely must. I work in healthcare and we currently have plans underway that will begin to be executed tomorrow and final decisions made tomorrow afternoon.

Edited because everyone doesn't mean Everyone in Houston...but everyone in areas that NEED to evac.

Dont think its excessive but it WILL LEAD to fatigue if it DOESNT hit.... just 3 years post Katrina I hear people say "I'M not sitting in traffic,ect, RUNNING OUT OF GAS,ECT." Gustav didnt help here in mississippi either even though we quite a bit of damage on the coast.... HARD CALL TO MAKE at the RIGHT time

[Pebbles]

Mets: any research into ERC's in situations like this where the outer eyewall is on land and the inner is over water? Does the outer usually tend to stay, drop, takeover. What is the norm for inner eye wall?

Does the fact that having an inner eyewall being over water allow more strengthening/stability.. or does the outer cause weaking?
Or has this not occured often enough to point to what is the norm (or what happens more often)?

Guess what I'm trying to figure out is what possible impact good/bad having two eyewalls (one over water, one somewhat on land) can have on a storm.

[rtd2]

:uarrow:

Actually the western side is rather mountainous and Ike was/is undergoing an ERC. So weakening was anticipated.

My apologies I was told by several is was LESS mountains and more flat land-beach type land..

[Steve]

>>I forgot to add also that visible is kinda deceptive and hard to tell where his center is. IR is better though not perfect and looking at that I think he's still a few miles offshore.

IR isn't worth squat for tracking eye movement. Sometimes it's all you have and you kinda go by it, but I disagree with your statement. However, with a clouded over center like what appeared in Ike's case posted above, you might be able to do the proper calcuations along with radar to pinpoint the center absent surface observations - which, IMHO, is the one thing that doesn't lie.

Steve

[fasterdisaster]

:uarrow:

Actually the western side is rather mountainous and Ike was/is undergoing an ERC. So weakening was anticipated.

My apologies I was told by several is was LESS mountains and more flat land-beach type land..

It is less mountainous. I think he means the Cienfuegos-Santa Clara central Cuba area.

[fasterdisaster]

Radar even lies too as we only see a MLC.

[TampaFl]

Ike appears to be making landfall again right now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Appears to be north of the NHC track. NOGAPS is the only model on SFWMD that shows Ike on the coast as it is now. Not sure if that's significant but I anticipate a tropical storm soon if this continues.

SFWMD Radar out of Key West confirms that Ike appears to be moving on shore again - or at least the northern eyewall skirtting the coastline.

[Pebbles]

Radar even lies too as we only see a MLC.

We'll not sure if this is true... I thought the center was close enough to this radar right now to pick up the LLC? No? http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

P.S. I saw you on that chat causing trouble last night young man! BUSTED!

[hial2]

:uarrow:

Actually the western side is rather mountainous and Ike was/is undergoing an ERC. So weakening was anticipated.

My apologies I was told by several is was LESS mountains and more flat land-beach type land..

It is less mountainous. I think he means the Cienfuegos-Santa Clara central Cuba area.

Central Cuba has mountains..I should know..I lived a long long time ago in Villa Clara.

[baitism]

[cpdaman]

hey this is the area where the ull dropped down on fay and sent him accelerting NNW thru cuba......now back to ike should be fully inland within next few hours (when he reaches 81.5)

let's hope he gets so much knocked out of him on his second tour of cuba and that a ull decides to tag along and join him on his trip thru the gulf and that the shear forecasts are off on wed-thur.

[fasterdisaster]

Radar even lies too as we only see a MLC.

We'll not sure if this is true... I thought the center was close enough to this radar right now to pick up the LLC? No? http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif

P.S. I saw you on that chat causing trouble last night young man! BUSTED!

You're right, I just meant in general but with Ike it should be accurate.

P.S. hurrmia: It's all lies

[6SpeedTA95]

Well this storm has weakened substantially but with it back over water it may be possible to maintain strong TS status until it emerges into the GOM.

[rtd2]

Central Cuba has mountains..I should know..I lived a long long time ago in Villa Clara.

gustav went over the west end of cuba north of the isle of youth I was thinking this was little to no mountains and why I was suprised it weakend Gustav so much... is this area north of isle of youth in fact flat or mountains?

[fasterdisaster]

BTW Pebbles thanks for the radar so it looks like he's BARELY offshore right now and I don't think he'll go onshore because the shape of the coast where he's at is the furthest south it gets where he is so he'll be further offshore in a couple hours.

[AnthraX151]

lol faster we had fun last night lol

[Tom8]

Is going in land in this moment

[Pebbles]

BTW Pebbles thanks for the radar so it looks like he's BARELY offshore right now and I don't think he'll go onshore because the shape of the coast where he's at is the furthest south it gets where he is so he'll be further offshore in a couple hours.

YW... yes looks like that beach right there is really getting RAKED by what I am assuming is the inner eyewall. But the center "looks" like it bobbled ever so slightly to stay offshore. I'm very interested to see how this possible ERC (or possibly canceled ERC, whatever you want to call the concentric eyewall situation that's been ongoing) actually plays out having never seen quite this situation before.

[fasterdisaster]

Is going in land in this moment

Again, he is moving a little north of west and the coast runs WNW, he might make a momentary landfall but he will not move inland for a good 12 hours provided something bizarre doesn't happen.