ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Category 5]

You know considering the orginization, the fact that it appears to have slowed a bit in the last few frames, the low sheer, and the 29C waters coming, RI seems to be a very real threat, and a 100kt Hurricane or even a bit stronger isn't out of the question.

Bottom line, this storm is a very serious threat. Everybody along the coast of Northern Mexico and South Texas needs to have their Hurricane preperation underway immediately.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The ridge seems to be stronger than we thought. Track to be shifted left at 11pm?

[dwg71]

If it continues west, interest on this board will drop dramatically...

Let's hope there is not any RI.

[93superstorm]

Looks like the center of the storm is now more rounded or its a CDO now developing. Also I cant believe How big it is all together:

[Air Force Met]

Anyone with more sophisticated tools know what the heading would be required from the current center to even landfall in the US? It is certainly more than 280º

It would need to move at 298 from its current location.

The GFDL shows it will even move 323 tomorrow night...The official forecast from the best of the best at the NHC looks very good.

The GFDL also put Dean into SE TX last year...and I could come up with a lot of other examples.

As I said in another post...I think it will hook to the right at the end...but I just think it will travel a little left of the track...and I think the NHC's track from this morning is more on the money than the current one...

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it continues west, interest on this board will drop dramatically...

Let's hope there is not any RI.

Texas isn't a hurricane magnet like Florida is.

Anyway, even 50 miles South of the border, BRO and SPI will probably come close to hurricane conditions, depending on how strong Dolly gets, with some surge flooding probably up beyond Port Aransas, there will be isolated tornadoes, and the forecast suggests enough slowing that the lower Rio Grande Valley could experience fresh water flooding, and, with the notable exception of Katrina, the last few decades have seen fresh water drowning as the biggest danger from hurricanes.

A Mexico landfall still means potentially dangerous weather for parts of Texas, and the West movement may be temporary, and a 300º heading could resume soon.

[Air Force Met]

If it continues west, interest on this board will drop dramatically...

Let's hope there is not any RI.

Analyzing the steering flow...or at least what I think is the steering flow...I believe it will resume a WNW motion shortly.

[Steve]

>>The ridge seems to be stronger than we thought.

It was a blue skies day here and pretty hot but dry feeling. Just the same, there was a stray tropical band with some puffy cumulus (no rain associated) across the US 90 near the Lafourche/Terrebonne Parishes border lined up roughly NE/SW. It was one of those typical straight line things with continuous rises along it letting you know there was tropical activity in the vicinity - in this case a few hundred miles to the south. Cool to see, but I was driving and couldn't get a decent camera picture to post.

As for Dolly, you can see things aren't exactly right yet. I'm chalking it up to July. But I get the impression that it's probably going to be one of those storms that strengthens all the way to landfall - which while this is an amateur opinion (for Frank2 and others who need you to say it), it has been alluded to by the NHC as well. Don't forget Claudette or Cindy which were earlier season storms that intensified going in. Those are the systems where you get a little more than you expected as compared to the weakening/fading systems that seem to be stronger but come in on the decline. They're all nasty, but still...

Steve

[ronjon]

The storm is slowing and consolidating its central core - I wouldn't put too much stock in a west wobble. The big question tonight is intensity - she's developing a CDO now and will be traveling over extremely high oceanic heat content - hurricane by morning. Pressure dropped 6 mb the last 3 hrs.

[jeff]

I don't think the upper levels on the S and SW side have as great of ouflow as the N and E sides. You can see the TUTT south of Dolly is having some impact on the southern half outflow. I think RI is not a great concern tonight...may be on Tuesday if the outflow to the south improves. That TUTT has caused all kinds of forecast headaches with this system. Live and learn for the next one.

[Sanibel]

That huge lopsided band might throw a wobble if it is swinging around in an intensification surge.

The ULL stuck right in the gut and didn't pull out.

[RL3AO]

The storm is slowing and consolidating its central core - I wouldn't put too much stock in a west wobble. The big question tonight is intensity - she's developing a CDO now and will be traveling over extremely high oceanic heat content - hurricane by morning. Pressure dropped 6 mb the last 3 hrs.

Its high, but not extremely high. Its not like the W Caribbean.

[HarlequinBoy]

Regardless of west wobbles, or a continued west path, the NHC has south Texas under a hurricane watch - they need to prepare accordingly.

[Air Force Met]

The GFDL also put Dean into SE TX last year...and I could come up with a lot of other examples.

I guess if were playing bash the model game then I can think a lot of bad things to say about the models that have this hitting MX.

You brought it up...not me. The GFDL has issues with steering and TUTTS.

Every model has its issues with certain situations...

[93superstorm]

IMO Recon is going to find the strongest winds yet with this storm when they pass throught the developing CDO. Looking very impressive each minute now. Eyewall really taking shape:

[boca]

Dolly really is rapping up it looks like it will hit just south of Brownsville by 50 miles or so.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HarlequinBoy]

Is it a developing eye or not?

EDIT: I know it's early for that but it kind of looks like it?

[stevetampa33614]

Its getting there...



Did Dolly just leave behind a really big piece of energy in the W. Carib.?

Might be something to keep an eye on. Looks like its still associated somewhat tho.

[Cyclenall]

That latest image is quite impressive (01:15 UTC). Eyewall is being built very quickly.

[Swimdude]

IMO Recon is going to find the strongest winds yet with this storm when they pass throught the developing CDO. Looking very impressive each minute now. Eyewall really taking shape:

Some yellows and greens showing up where the LLC is located. This only occurs on the latest image...