ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Also pebbles if I keep using that link will it update or not? If not do you know the source URL?

[TheEuropean]

Central Cuba has mountains..I should know..I lived a long long time ago in Villa Clara.

gustav went over the west end of cuba north of the isle of youth I was thinking this was little to no mountains and why I was suprised it weakend Gustav so much... is this area north of isle of youth in fact flat or mountains?

Gustav was not only influenced by cuba, he weakend because of southwesterly shear in the GoM.

[TampaFl]

The center of Ike moving on shore again - tempoary or trend?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[Tom8]

Also pebbles if I keep using that link will it update or not? If not do you know the source URL?

yes
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/1984/wvlfd7.jpg

[fasterdisaster]

How long is that dry air supposed to stay?

[Pebbles]

Also pebbles if I keep using that link will it update or not? If not do you know the source URL?

The radar updates every 15 minutes.. you have to manually reload the page though.

[fasterdisaster]

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif (Link pebbles posted)

It appears the exact center of Ike has avoided moving onshore.

[attallaman]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

[wxman57]

Well, I adjusted my track down to Matagorda Bay prior to the 4pm CDT NHC update doing the same. I'm feeling a bit relieved as far as a possible Houston direct hit, but I'd like to see the models shift more west/south at 00Z and over the next day or two.

Just in case, though, I filled up my four 5-gal cans to keep my car running for 3 weeks if power is out, and/or my generator running my freezer. The salesman at Home Depot hadn't even heard about Ike. I saw no indications of anything out of the ordinary there in terms of purchase. We're on almost an identical timetable to Rita of 2005, and by this time the stores were a madhouse. I think the Katrina event just prior to Rita really scared everyone back then. Nobody around here even seems to know there's a storm out there.

[fasterdisaster]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

27-30 hours before he is in the GOM.

[Pebbles]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

Has Ike cleared cuba... yes and no.. depends on your defination of cleared. It was over land.. now to be technical looks like it's raking the coast but the very center is offshore (BARELY)... it will be going over cuban land again. So yes 2 landfalls on cuba (well technically several landfalls, I've lost count of what will be considered 'true landfalls'). The track this storm has taken is making it go over water/onland on and off.

[Deputy Van Halen]

I'll feel a lot better if Ike is downgraded to tropical storm. I checked to see what was the last Atlantic TC to be a major hurricane, get knocked down to TS, and then make it back to major. It was Hurricane Carmen in 1974. Doesn't happen very often, in other words.

Is the loop current eddy still warm enough for nightmarish RI? Is Cat 5 possible or is Cat 4 probably the worst reasonable case?

If Ike gets to Cat 4 and then weakens to Cat 2 as it approaches Texas, could there be a phenomenon like Katrina where the storm surge is still that of a Cat 4 even though the storm has weakened?

[attallaman]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

27-30 hours before he is in the GOM.

And from there is a ridge of high pressure going to direct Ike toward the west? There's no weakening in the ridge and there'll be no trough to pull the system poleward? The models seem to indicate a shift to the west tonight.

[6SpeedTA95]

Man I really hope this storm doesn't hit houston that would be a major disaster if it came ashore as a cat3/4

[fasterdisaster]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

27-30 hours before he is in the GOM.

And from there is a ridge of high pressure going to direct Ike toward the west? There's no weakening in the ridge and there'll be no trough to pull the system poleward? The models seem to indicate a shift to the west tonight.

It's not 100 percent yet by any means but it does not appear the trough will lift him more than perhaps NW followed by continued WNW from the ridge.

[wxman57]

Has Ike cleared Cuba yet? I heard a local MET say tonight that Ike might make 2 landfalls on Cuba. Is that correct? When is Ike going to make it into the GOM?

27-30 hours before he is in the GOM.

And from there is a ridge of high pressure going to direct Ike toward the west? There's no weakening in the ridge and there'll be no trough to pull the system poleward? The models seem to indicate a shift to the west tonight.

One thing that the NHC can't do on their graphics is to add in extra points to demonstrate a true motion at landfall. In this case, a point in between days 4 and 5 close to the latitude of the day 4 point would indicate a NW-NNW motion at landfall. Models do indicate a deepening trof approaching Texas Fri/Sat that should steer Ike northward near landfall.

[Brent]

[wxman57]

New GFDL is in - Landfall just north of Corpus Christi 108hrs. About Midnight Friday.

WHXX04 KWBC 082329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 79.2 270./12.0
6 21.4 80.3 283./ 9.9
12 21.6 81.4 282./11.4
18 22.0 82.4 290./ 9.6
24 22.6 83.4 302./10.6
30 23.0 84.1 302./ 7.9
36 23.6 85.0 304./10.0
42 24.0 85.6 298./ 6.5
48 24.4 86.4 300./ 8.8
54 24.9 87.2 302./ 8.4
60 25.1 88.2 282./ 9.8
66 25.3 89.3 280./10.3
72 25.5 90.5 280./10.9
78 25.9 91.6 287./10.3
84 26.2 93.0 285./13.1
90 26.7 94.1 291./11.0
96 27.1 95.4 289./11.9
102 27.6 96.5 294./11.1
108 28.1 97.3 306./ 8.9
114 29.0 98.0 319./10.5
120 29.9 98.5 330./10.4
126 30.9 98.7 350./10.0

[fasterdisaster]

Latest VDM says Ike no longer has concentric eyewalls, looks like it could be go time.

[amawea]

[One thing that the NHC can't do on their graphics is to add in extra points to demonstrate a true motion at landfall. In this case, a point in between days 4 and 5 close to the latitude of the day 4 point would indicate a NW-NNW motion at landfall. Models do indicate a deepening trof approaching Texas Fri/Sat that should steer Ike northward near landfall.[/quote]

And that is why I'm still worried about the upper Texas coast. I have two daughters that live in Dickinson, and a son on the north side of Houston. A tendency for storms to turn to the north and northeast seems to exist without a trough when they get north of 28N anyway.