ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

If Cuba does keep it from being no more than a Cat 1, the rain in Georgia (I haven't really been keeping up, but the drought is still significant) might do more good than harm, although I suspect there could be short term flooding issues.

[Scorpion]

The heat potential offshore of Sanibel showed maximums of 150-165 knots. Explosive potentials. This is the pefect set-up for a shocker RI system people didn't take seriously.

NHC map gives us a morning storm passing us at peak around 9:30am.

Yea, I just have a strange feeling about this system. The outstanding outflow and black spots on IR really tell me something. Seems almost Wilma-like in setup(of course won't be nearly as strong). But I think it will surprise people.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The heat potential offshore of Sanibel showed maximums of 150-165 knots. Explosive potentials. This is the pefect set-up for a shocker RI system people didn't take seriously.

NHC map gives us a morning storm passing us at peak around 9:30am.

NHC doesn't seem to expect that, but Charley was only four years ago, so the rule of thumb I heard after people around Port Isabel/South Padre Island seemed surprised by Dolly's winds, adding at least one category to NHC forecast when making preps, seems good advice.

[Evil Jeremy]

I spy with my untrained eyes, a slowdown and a WNW heading.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

anyone see a turning at 18.8N 75.7 W a re-location attempt?

i think this IR2 would be best to view (also i "x'd" off the first 2-3 hours of loop and look toward 18.8 75.7

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

i know we thankfully will have recon in a hour or so but any thoughts, opinions, guesses


this is my biggest concern right now, because this would bring it far enough away from the inhibition of the SE cuban mountains

[tolakram]

Starting to move a little more north.

[Sanibel]

I'd swear it's going a notch right and will clip more of Cuba and stumble because of it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'd swear it's going a notch right and will clip more of Cuba and stumble because of it.

It is possible. This storm has done everything in its power to throw away all it had in the first place. 1# It went over Hati/DR 2# Maybe across over a large part of Cuba. If things go just right in this tracks farther east then expected it could be below a hurricane at landfall in florida. But we will see.

[HURAKAN]

The Cuban mountains won't be a major impediment except if the center moves over Cuba like Ernesto did, which is not likely.

[Dean4Storms]

anyone see a turning at 18.8N 75.7 W a re-location attempt?

i think this IR2 would be best to view (also i "x'd" off the first 2-3 hours of loop and look toward 18.8 75.7

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

i know we thankfully will have recon in a hour or so but any thoughts, opinions, guesses


this is my biggest concern right now, because this would bring it far enough away from the inhibition of the SE cuban mountains

I see what you are seeing and it does look suspicious. I see a rotation in that imagery near 18.8 76.5

[cycloneye]

The Cuban mountains won't be a major impediment except if the center moves over Cuba like Ernesto did, which is not likely.

The tallest mountains in Cuba are located in the Eastern Part right?

[Bocadude85]

anyone see a turning at 18.8N 75.7 W a re-location attempt?

i think this IR2 would be best to view (also i "x'd" off the first 2-3 hours of loop and look toward 18.8 75.7

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

i know we thankfully will have recon in a hour or so but any thoughts, opinions, guesses


this is my biggest concern right now, because this would bring it far enough away from the inhibition of the SE cuban mountains

I see what you are seeing and it does look suspicious.

The NHC 11pm disc notes a well defined LLC so reformation of a center would be unlikely...

[Dean4Storms]

True, but you can see some turning in that imagery anyway near 18.8 76.5

[Emmett_Brown]

anyone see a turning at 18.8N 75.7 W a re-location attempt?

i think this IR2 would be best to view (also i "x'd" off the first 2-3 hours of loop and look toward 18.8 75.7

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

others

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

i know we thankfully will have recon in a hour or so but any thoughts, opinions, guesses


this is my biggest concern right now, because this would bring it far enough away from the inhibition of the SE cuban mountains

I see what you are seeing and it does look suspicious.

Yup... from the IR, looks like that could be the center. Fay is quite ugly at the moment, but no doubting the potential... cold red tops filling in on all sides now.

[HURAKAN]

The Cuban mountains won't be a major impediment except if the center moves over Cuba like Ernesto did, which is not likely.

The tallest mountains in Cuba are located in the Eastern Part right?

Yes but they are not as high as the ones in the Hispaniola or in Jamaica. Also, Fay is already far from most of them.

[alicia83]

Can someone tell me what the swirl at 17N and 76W is?

Forgot to add on the WV loop!

[Annie Oakley]

The Cuban mountains won't be a major impediment except if the center moves over Cuba like Ernesto did, which is not likely.

Thank you for getting the thread back on topic-was starting to look like 'chat' in here. Looking forward to more of your incredible artistry of storm stills...and to the narration of other pros development of Fay. Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

You can see where the tallest peak is.

[artist]

I'd swear it's going a notch right and will clip more of Cuba and stumble because of it.

It is possible. This storm has done everything in its power to throw away all it had in the first place. 1# It went over Hati/DR 2# Maybe across over a large part of Cuba. If things go just right in this tracks farther east then expected it could be below a hurricane at landfall in florida. But we will see.

Hey Matt, how are you?
This would still have plenty of heat content even if it tracks further east, I am thinking. I just think this storm is going to be more than we bargained for no matter where she ends up. I hope I am wrong.

[Javlin]

Can someone tell me what the swirl at 17N and 76W is?

Forgot to add on the WV loop!

An ULL (upper level low)