ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Dean4Storms]

Good Lord, I can see rotation near 18.8 76.5, if so Fay turned WSW in the last few hours since Recon was there.

Just zoom in on the visible floater and you should see it, click on Lat./Lon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Didn't the GFS in an earlier run show a jog WSW toward Jamaica???

[HURAKAN]

Highest Peaks

Hispaniola: Pico Duarte [ 3,098 metres (10,164 feet) ]

Cuba: Pico Turquino [ 1,974 m (6,476 ft) ]

Jamaica: Blue Mountain Peak [ 2,256 metres (7,402 ft) ]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It could still become a strong tropical storm before landfall over Cuba. But it is anyones guest how strong it gets once over the gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

It helped me to also slow down the animation a bit. It could be a transient vortex, but it definitely is rotating.

[LaBreeze]

My best to all of you in Florida. Stay safe and listen to whatever orders are given. I'm breathing a sigh of relief on this end of the GOM that Fay is not coming our way.

[Javlin]

Good Lord, I can see rotation near 18.8 76.5, if so Fay turned WSW in the last few hours since Recon was there.

I think what we are seeing is just part of the MLC that is about all we really can denote at night time.I think it still is going due W and I might of picked a .1' less maybe 19.2 but hey it all comes out in the wash later with the next inbound flight.I think like some have said does it make it to 78' basically going W(270-275)?then I think a track little further W along the coast,my .02.

[Praxus]

This is an interesting article on a hurricane's possible effects on Tampa

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/webspecials02/andrew/day4/story1.shtml

[HURAKAN]

RECON will be investigating Fay in less than an hour. Stay tuned for the center location.

[alicia83]

Ok, I'm gonna be really dense. I thought the ull was off the west end of Cuba. So there's another one southeast of Jamaica?

[tampastorm]

Absolute craziness, we have ppl saying WNW and some saying WSW. So I guess the average is W,lol.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, Recon will be really the only way to know for sure at night like this till we get some kind of eye.

[wxmann_91]

Ok, I'm gonna be really dense. I thought the ull was off the west end of Cuba. So there's another one southeast of Jamaica?

Yes, there's an ULL off the west end of Cuba.
No, there's not an ULL SE of Jamaica.
Yes, there's an ULL NE of the Lesser Antilles.

[cpdaman]

no alicia javlin did not answer your question correct

[Dean4Storms]

Absolute craziness, we have ppl saying WNW and some saying WSW. So I guess the average is W,lol.

And there is nothing in evidence of a swirl to indicate a WNW movement, they haven't pointed one out that I'm aware of. You can't go by cloud expansions, you have to at least identify a rotation at the lower levels.

[HURAKAN]

LOL, if we tracked ULLs we would be really busy!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

no matt did not answer your question correct

This one is super hard to forecast how strong it will because of land. If it goes across cuba the long way it will once again destroy any innercore. Also if it recurves fast like some models are trying to show it could not have long over water. But on the other hand if it stayed south of Cuba to around 80-81 west and then turned northward into the Gulf. That would be a new animal all together.

[Javlin]

Ok, I'm gonna be really dense. I thought the ull was off the west end of Cuba. So there's another one southeast of Jamaica?

I knew I should of looked at the loop again about 10' off there but really really do not see nothing more than heavy convection?though higher cloud tops.Sorry about the dumb info.

[cpdaman]

alicia i saw what you were talking about it was a short lived feature ,looks like an "eddy" / little spin, often there are a bunch of them found around poorly organized lows

[Ed Mahmoud]