ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

Radar looks fairly close to NHC track.

[alicia83]

thanks for esplainin to me cpdaman.

LOL, Javalin, I'm not quite as dumb as you had me thinking I was.

Fascinating storm this one.

[Javlin]

thanks for esplainin to me cpdaman.

LOL, Javalin, I'm not quite as dumb as you had me thinking I was.

Fascinating storm this one.

The fact you aked put light years ahead of me .Time for bed.

[BigA]

Solid blowup of convection just to the east of the 11pm center position.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Solid blowup of convection just to the east of the 11pm center position.

Staring here, but my eyes are drawn to convection moving into Jamaica. Nothing regarding the center, just the rainfall rates likely beneath those cold tops.

[cpdaman]

ED you convinced me there is no major relocation going on now with that radar

it matches with the latest tropical floater well 19.3/4 at 76.4

[deltadog03]

Here is how I see things right now....

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS showing South/Central Florida landfall from the west coast.

[Blown Away]

New GFS showing South/Central Florida landfall from the west coast.

Is that E or W of the old run, more specific pleae.

[Dean4Storms]

Here is how I see things right now....

That is where I see the LLC Delta.

[Blown Away]

Here is how I see things right now....

So what does that mean?

[cpdaman]

Here is how I see things right now....

delta how do you get that further south, with the radar loop ed provided on the top of the page , is the beam distorting it's positon

[deltadog03]

Well, it would need to track pretty much NW start immediately, IMO to hit that point...

[deltadog03]

Radar looks horrible IMO..Loop that IR2 and speed the loop up...you can clearly see it spinning around there.

[Bocadude85]

I still see the center still at 19.4

[Dean4Storms]

It could mean that the LLC has been pulled WSW. The only factors I could think of would be the deep convection to its South and/or the mountains of eastern Cuba causing it to move away from them. Otherwise I don't know other than a wobble along the ridge that could have caused the jog a bit WSW.

[senorpepr]

Added a new graphic that zooms down even closer and puts surface plots, streamlines, sfc pressure all together with 0.5° base reflectivity (248nm range) out of Key West and Miami. Probably tomorrow I'll add the Florida-specific charts with more frequent updates.

[Dean4Storms]

Zoom in here and speed up the animation, you'll see what Delta and I have been getting at.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


It is lower level clouds, note the light gray colors.

[Scorpion]

If the center reformation is true then that would be great news.