ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[JonathanBelles]

To top this all off...has anyone looked outside tonight??? See that big beutiful full moon that just smiles down on us? It's beautiful...until we realize that our highest tides occur with the full moon. On Tuesday night, just about 8pm, we have our highest tide around St. Petersburg of the month. It will be about 2.8ft. above mean.

That is the time that they would expect Fay to pay a visit nearby.

You're just full of good news All true but I really didn't want to hear it

I didnt even think about that. and I agree with mf dolphin lol.

[maxx9512]

what are the loops not updating for the last 40 min or so , stuck at 415 utc

same w/ ramdis

anyone have a site with some more up to date satelite pics, i'm also trying to make sense of the recon data, otherwise i think it is bed time (will be back at 9'ish) after some eggs and pancakes Yea

Satellite eclipse

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Needless to say, I am very intently keeping track of this one. We live on Treasure island. Highest point on the island...4.7 feet above sea level. We are at 3ft.

[SoupBone]

So the new Nogaps is interesting. It has a MS style landing but it looks like it would take some major things for it to happen. What are your thoughts?

[mf_dolphin]

I'm on high ground here in Gulfport. 11 ft above sea level

[cpdaman]

well our trusty cuban radar shows a much larger center occuring now ( a bit more to the sw) at least in my tired eyes

just go back a page and look

[boca]

Try this sat pic

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[RL3AO]

Satellite eclipse should be complete within an hour.

[cpdaman]

same thing boca 415 utc 90 min old.

anyway see the radar trend, what you think

since recon apparently can't fly thru the center ( or is running some kind of weird pattern) too close to cuba?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I bet there is going to be a big/hugh change on Fay and thats why I think it's late coming out with the adv.

[boca]

same thing boca 415 utc 90 min old.

anyway see the radar trend, what you think

since recon apparently can't fly thru the center ( or is running some kind of weird pattern) too close to cuba?

I need the link again please.

[cpdaman]

Cuban radar shows nicely where center is, end of discussion of where you think it is by looking at the IR.

its on page 294

[gatorcane]

Try this sat pic

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Seems to be making a more WNW turn as of late...the turn is coming to fruition -- I can't see it going due W anymore.

Hopefully it gets over the mountains of Eastern Cuba to seriously disorganize it even more.

[Texashawk]

I bet there is going to be a big/hugh change on Fay and thats why I think it's late coming out with the adv.

What kind of big huge change, exactly, do you think will occur?

[Wx_Warrior]

Big/huge change? Please indulge!

[HURAKAN]

146
WTNT31 KNHC 170555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Jason_B]

Try this sat pic

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Seems to be making a more WNW turn as of late...the turn is coming to fruition -- I can't see it going due W anymore.

Hopefully it gets over the mountains of Eastern Cuba to seriously disorganize it even more.

That's probably the wrapping of the convection around the center causing that illusion, i don't see a solid wnw movement just yet.

EDIT: Nevermind, obviously it is (advisory above)

[gatorcane]

Nope the NHC just confirmed the WNW motion ---

and this is pretty disturbing if you ask me (snippet from advisory)

FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.

Yikes

[cycloneye]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA

[boca]

Its already disorganized to an extent but cpdaman it does look WNW or north of due west. Its very hard to tell. Gator I think even if this hits the west coast well gets some weather out of this one.