ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

"RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT."

from the disscusion

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The last 2 center fixes clearly show that she is in fact moving around 7mph not 15 like they said and she is moving on heading more west northwest not west atleast between center fixes thats the direction she was traveling which you can clearly see on the picture I posted above

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that cdo is the cdo this is going to have, then this will be a very small hurricane. Iris 2001, Charley 2004, Andrew 92 in size. That is if it ever gets going, in which might be very hard.

[Smurfwicked]

The last 2 center fixes clearly show that she is in fact moving around 7mph not 15 like they said and she is moving on heading more west northwest not west atleast between center fixes thats the direction she was traveling which you can clearly see on the picture I posted above

If thats true and my math calculations are correct based of the distance from Brownsville that should give her about 25 more hours on water compared to her old speed of 17mph.

[Aric Dunn]

If that cdo is the cdo this is going to have, then this will be a very small hurricane. Iris 2001, Charley 2004, Andrew 92 in size. That is if it ever gets going, in which might be very hard.

it will expand a for sure ..

[Aric Dunn]

the center is going to be coming into radar range within the next few hours .. you can already see the outer bands

[ROCK]

Ugh, baby woke me up so I decided to check in....slowed down....looks better......going back to bed....

[americanrebel]

60 mph NOW, won't be long until she is Hurricane Dolly, and as big as she is, she could do a lot of damage.

[KWT]

Thre lower pressure is a little on the southern side of the developing CDO but thats hardly going to be enough to prevent any strengthening from occuring, its only slightly on the southern side. I remember Fausto developing into a 80kt hurricane with a center way more displaced then what Dolly's is right now. Lets wait and see with what happens today.

The simple facts are in the last few hours its slowed right down and we've seen explosive convection finally developing pretty close to the center and on the eastern side. I think we are about to see some much faster development of Dolly.

[Cat5x]

looks almost like a stall to me as well. The next update will still show a speed of 8 - 12 mph because I think they average that out over several previous hours not just the last 2 hours, so you wont see the slow down till the next advisory after this one that is if it still moving slow by then.

EDIT: just noticed the 4am update, says 14mph so obviously the "Current" speed it averaged out over the last several hours. Do they just take last update's cordinates and this update's cordinates and do the math for distance divided by hours? Hardly a current speed, more like previous speed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2008 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 23:17:18 N Lon : 93:45:34 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm watching the low level clouds, that kind of seems to be moving west-northwest around 285-290 degree's now. I would say about 8 mph?

[senorpepr]

Some new Bay of Campeche charts...

[ROCK]

I'm watching the low level clouds, that kind of seems to be moving west-northwest around 285-290 degree's now. I would say about 8 mph?

really slow...becoming elongated for some reason....is this the turn sooner than expected? few more hours to verify...

BTW- cant go back to sleep now....

[KWT]

Yeah I'd say something like that Matt, either way this gives Dolly more time to get its act on I reckon. Still without Vis.imagery its hard to tell what is going on. T-numbers now support 55kts as well, interesting!

[JtSmarts]

It will be very interesting to see how much of an effect the weakness in the ridge has on Dolly's motion throughout the day. Right now the NHC's track, just to the south of Brownsville still seems like the best bet.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ok next recon flight has left. Its a noaa flight not air force.

[americanrebel]

Definetely looks like the weakness is there and if she blows up like a lot of us expect, she will probably go straight through it. That means it will be much further North than Brownsville.

This is my unofficial prediction, there is really no scientific evidence behind it though.

[KWT]

I think this is starting to get a more and more classic look now, nice feeder band on the NE side, some really deep convection now with that developing CDO and the odd overshoot, I think today is the day we see hurricane Dolly.

[Smurfwicked]

I'm still concerned about seeing shift much more northward at any time. Not saying it'll happen nor do I have any evidence to support this.

On another note, if she does continue on the same path towards Brownsville area and maintains speed of 7mph I've figured she would make landfall around 10pm Central Wednesday night. Once again that is if my calculations are right.