ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

close enough for me to think 'wow'

Close but no cigar. August 23 to September 5th Hurricane #11 1933:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Frankly, GFS is always smoking something. I won't say it never has any contribution but I don't know why it's lumped in with models like GFDL, HWRF, Euro, and even UKMET.

GFS has had problems in past years, but this year, it has generally smoked the other globals, not any illicit substances. GFS is also benefitting from special 6Z and 18Z soundings, and Gulfstream upper air flights.


Bed time.

[soney]

I'm a longtime lurker and seldom poster, mostly because I like to stay quiet when I know other people need information for their area....

But this latest track has me a bit nervous. I'm about 120 miles inland from Corpus Christi, I'd like to know what kind of winds, power outages, etc. we might have that I should prepare for. I'm the stay-at-home mom who would have to prepare several households and properties while everyone else works.

Ironically, brush pickup in my little town is scheduled for Monday the 15th so just guess what is at every curb!

Any information anyone can give me would be great.

[shah8]

The GFS hasn't stuck with a general ridge theme more than three straight times, using 00z and 12zs. If this is the same general idea at 12z tomorrow, then I will buy it, but not before then.

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS is in Mexico, halfway between La Pesca and Brownsville. The trend continues. Not stopping, not swinging back. Anything is possible, and things can change in the next 4 days, but this smells to me like a Mexico storm. So far, BRO/SPI might still see hurricane winds, (and surge) but any further shifts South, this could be a clean miss (well, I can't see outer bands completely missing Deep South Texas at this point as big as Ike is getting).


I'm guessing rest of reliable globals follow suit, and 6Z GFS will be near the 0Z, as it seems, in my amateur opinion, the magnitude of the model swings is coming down.

Be another day before it becomes more certain.

Yep, Mexico Bound Ike is....I don't wish anything bad on Mexico, don't get me wrong, but the USA could not deal with another cane...Hopefully wherever it hits in Mexico will be fairly unpopulated......Feeling much better tonight. Even the Mets on the TV are mentioning that this is looking like it's going to be directed north into Mexico......

[Jevo]

I feel bad for Mexico... but happy for oil prices.. hopefully he can miss all the platforms

[Cyclone Runner]

Great News from Great Inagua

Bird Watchers and Wildlife Organisations from around the world mobilised resources as Hurricane Ike bore down on the world's largest colony of West Indian Flamingos. But the news just out of Inagua is excellent, and all flamingo lovers can finally relax!

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/ ... mingos.php

Excerpt below:

Bahamas flamingo colony survives Hurricane Ike
The Associated Press
Published: September 9, 2008

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico: Thousands of pink flamingos in the Bahamas emerged unscathed from Hurricane Ike's direct hit on their breeding colony, the warden of Great Inagua island's national park said Monday. Warden Henry Nixon said he saw a few dead birds on his first visit to the park since Ike pounded the island with 135 mph (217 kph) winds Sunday, but the vast majority apparently found shelter in coves and behind mangrove trees.

"The flamingos are doing fine. There are thousands of them all over the place," Nixon told The Associated Press. He said the mangrove clusters the birds use for protection were also still intact. The national park covers nearly half the 600-square-mile (1,550-square kilometer) island in the southeastern Bahamas and with roughly 50,000 West Indian flamingos, it claims the largest breeding colony in the world........

Some birds may have survived by flying to nearby islands, said Lynn Gape, deputy director of the Bahamas National Trust. "Birds are very sensitive to barometric pressure," she said.
.

[Brent]

Even the Mets on the TV are mentioning that this is looking like it's going to be directed north into Mexico......

[Texashawk]

Ed: Texas' Finest Original Guaranteed 'Cane Repellent and Recurvature Shield

Supplies are limited, so if you're a state threatened by a MOAS (Mother of All Storms), git down to Texas and git some Ed!

Operators are standing by. Well, they're actually sitting, but they're sitting for you.

[fasterdisaster]

Saying things like "Mexico bound Ike is" when only 25 percent of the cone is in Mexico is a reason there is a disclaimer.

[attallaman]

So am I in the all clear tonight in the CGOM region? Ike is a TX or TX/MX storm?

[emeraldislencguy]

it makes me sad that people get excited that a huirricane will miss the usa and say glad it it going to another country why are we so selfish--these third word countries dont have our resources and then we worry about oil prices but dont worry if a storm hits mexico or cuba or one of the islands--come on people lets get sensitive to the needs of others

[MBryant]

Beulah was the one with over 100 tornadoes I believe.

[fasterdisaster]

FOR THE LAST TIME BY NO MEANS 'WILL' THIS HURRICANE MISS THE US. Sorry to yell, but it's your personal opinion if you believe it will and it should be noted as such with the disclaimer. I honestly have no intention to side-mod here I'm just genuinely concerned someone will get the wrong idea and think they are safe in Houston or somewhere like that and the storm is now 'forecasted' to go into Mexico when by no definition of the word is it currently 'forecasted' to go into Mexico. There is a 'chance' it will go into Mexico, however it is not 'forecasted'.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I bet that none of you can find a storm that started as far east and north as this one did, in went west like this one did, but then dived south into Cuba as this one did. I bet YOU can't find ONE cyclone that did like this one, with in a degree both sides of its track. That means a degree from where it formed, a degree from where it hit in Cuba. In at this strength as a cyclone.

I will drink ten gallons of water in run down the street, if you find a storm that comes close to this in the last 150+ years. Strength, within an one degree both sides of the core of this systems track.

[fasterdisaster]

HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 79.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2008 21.6N 79.7W STRONG
12UTC 09.09.2008 22.5N 82.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2008 23.5N 84.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2008 24.5N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2008 25.2N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2008 25.8N 90.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2008 26.1N 92.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2008 27.6N 94.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2008 29.4N 95.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2008 32.1N 96.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

So much for the silly nilly zany brainy endless southward shift heading straight to Tampico.

[fasterdisaster]

I will drink ten gallons of water in run down the street, if you find a storm that comes close to this in the last 150+ years. Strength, within an one degree both sides of the core of this systems track.

Pretty safe specifications you've got there.

[mahmoo]

OMG........does anyone think the hurricane is gonna hit Louisiana????? Huh Huh Huh?????

Nah Nah.....it's hitting Texas.....nah it's hitting Florida.

And let's analyze the models into oblivion.....even though we don't really know what we're talking about but we know a few buzz words that make us sound like we do.

Love Ya all you original people and it's an awesome place ya put together......but it has become impossible to wade through the BS anymore. This kind of stuff doesn't really help the masses that have ended up coming here for information........I believe in free speech but it's cluttering up the boards big time.

Suggestion.....maybe start a thread for idle chatter...........just sayin......and if I get banned.....well, I meant well.

[Cyclenall]

There is a chat room for that already.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

mahmoo - I really don't think you would get banned for making a suggestion. IMO any board that bans some one for making a suggestion doesn't deserve to exist! Boards better them selfs through member suggestions and wouldn't last for too long if they didn't welcome the suggestions. I should know! I run 1 weather forum, and a bunch of other sites with forums (not going to give the links to any of them since I don't want to be accused of trying to steal members from this site) but the point is is that I know how to run sites like this. Member feedback and suggestions should ALWAYS be welcomed!

However after saying that this thread is for discussion about Ike. There is a thread for the official forecasts and there are also threads that the promets have created with their forecasts where members can get official information and non-official but professional forecasts as well. This thread was made for EVERY one to talk about Ike its not really the thread you should be using to get information for life saving choices.