ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

NOAA plane just reported 971mb with 42 kt winds on that spot (that would translate to 967mb).

Wow, thats firmly into cat2 territory. It will be interesting to see how long it takes windspeeds to respond. Also the terrain of cuba will certainly disrupt the storm if it does pass over the island nation. If it passes over the island at 10+ mph I would expect only moderate weakening from the system. I don't really see any reasons why it will park itself over cuba like it did haiti/jamaica areas.

[haml8]

Can someone please post the link again to the Jeff Masters Update emails? I was not able to do a search on the forum for it. thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

Where Gustav will track thru Cuba is flat land so I dont see big weakening like what happened in Haiti.

[rtd2]

Can someone please post the link again to the Jeff Masters Update emails? I was not able to do a search on the forum for it. thanks in advance.

Since your in TX i THINK YOU MEANT JEFF LINDERS? If not sorry... I know Jeff masters was talking earlier about getting out of nola not emails...anyway sorry if this is not right

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102827

[6SpeedTA95]

Maybe I'm missing something since I've been gone all day but when did this suddenly become a Texas storm? What I mean is that I know Texas to Mobile is in the cone but the tracks haven't shifted off of Louisiana for several days. I know the've turned a tad more west but what makes you guys think Texas? Is there something I missed today?

I think most agreed the GFDL over pensacola was quite aggressive with breaking down the ridge. Now it appears that those were in fact a bit overdone, and the fact that Gustav has moved at a tepid pace has made it tough to model. If we see it continuing to move at 9+ mph the model runs should regroup and we should have a much more accurate picture tomorrow of just where he is headed.

Ahhh...great explanation. I appreciate it. Didn't the GFDL shift a bit to the west right over Terrebonne Parish?

The GFDL has seemed to be the more east trending model with this storm. In fact at land fall it has been the furthest east in 6 of the 8 model graphics I've saved for this storm. The GFDL is now pushing the storm into Louisiana about 50 to 60 miles due south of New Orleans. As for the parish name I do not know, sorry. New model runs should start popping up between now and tomorrow morning, it should be interesting to see what those show given the storms current location. It's moving with a fairly decent northerly component for as far south as the storm is. Which means perhaps the UKMET especially is playing this a bit too far west? I haven't seen the rest of the components for the models yet and probably wont look at all of it for another couple hours, but as usual I would expect the models to tighten up and thats especially true in this case since the storm is actually moving again.

[KWT]

wow 971mbs with 42kts at flight level, certainly would be deeper then 971, we've just seen a huge drop in the pressure if thats the case, looks like RI is occuring, could see this down to 940mbs before landfall if this keeps up...

also Cuba may not do all that much to a fairly large hurricane given how flat it is.

[haml8]

Can someone please post the link again to the Jeff Masters Update emails? I was not able to do a search on the forum for it. thanks in advance.

Since your in TX i THINK YOU MEANT JEFF LINDERS? If not sorry... I know Jeff masters was talking earlier about getting out of nola not emails...anyway sorry if this is not right

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102827

Yep I did... you are right too many Jeff's Thanks for the link, this is what I was looking for!

[6SpeedTA95]

wow 971mbs with 42kts at flight level, certainly would be deeper then 971, we've just seen a huge drop in the pressure if thats the case, looks like RI is occuring, could see this down to 940mbs before landfall if this keeps up...

also Cuba may not do all that much to a fairly large hurricane given how flat it is.

Thats actually an excellent poitn, the western end of cuba is especially flat with elevation ranging from sea level to only 400 or so feet above sea level. That would do minimal disruption to the storm with nothing to inhibit mid level moisture inflow.

[vaffie]

Note that a 970 mb storm equates roughly to a 100-105 mph storm, so even if the pressure stopped falling right now, in a few hours, the winds would rise to about that speed--and since recon missed the lowest pressure by a little bit, it probably is on the verge of having the pressure of a major hurricane (above 111)--the winds will catch up.

[lisa0825]

Thans as always wxman57. Drop by "our local Forum" if you get a chance.

There are local forums? I didn't see them listed in the main forum list, and the search wasn't working. If someone could direct me to local forums (I am in Galveston County, TX, south of Houston), I would appreciate it.

Thanks

[6SpeedTA95]

Note that a 970 mb storm equates roughly to a 100-105 mph storm, so even if the pressure stopped falling right now, in a few hours, the winds would rise to about that speed.

Yeah and when you think about it, cat3 is what 111mph? So if the pressure continues to drop like it has been we may not be at a cat2 by tomorrow we may be at a 3.

[dwg71]

seems like a tight compact (small storm)

[deltadog03]

CDO anyone?

[KWT]

Yep the pressure is really deep for a 70kts hurricane, though /i think Derek does have a point about the pressure relationship being closer to that of a WPAC system, therefore the winds may not catch up as fast as you'd expect with a system like this.

No doubting this is undergoing RI, at times bordering EI.

[srainhoutx]

CDO anyone?

Certainly appears that way. Bombs away.

[Scorpion]

Wilma had a pressure in the 950's as a Cat 1. If it keeps dropping in pressure but the winds wont respond then BOOM.

[AL Chili Pepper]

CDO anyone?

wonder if that big flareup had anything to do with the plane not penetrating the eye on that last pass.

[haml8]

I*I also posted this in the models thread ,preface: I don't know if this is the right place for this question so here it goes..

WXman57, AFM or Derek or any other met for that case, can you please post a link or picutre of the steering layer that is likley in play for Gustav please?

[Scorpion]

Would be around a 8 mb drop in little more than an hour and a half.

[93superstorm]

CDO developing: