ATL: IKE Discussion

[Normandy]

Ed, your a good poster. Don't let your reputation be ruined by some brash prediction based on pure speculation (not evidence). At least wait another day before saying something so brash (Like no Hurricane force winds for BRO, which means a miss of 60-70 miles).

[Brent]

Eclipse over

[bob rulz]

4 deaths reported in Cuba so far.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26540352/

[TampaFl]

2:00am psition = moving west along CSouthern Cuban coast:

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Who was it that was talking about Ike not being able to strengthen to much because of its 60mile wide outer eyewall? While Ike must have access to the internet and read this forum! Ike now has a pen-hole eye of 8miles wide!

000
URNT12 KNHC 090640
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/06:18:20Z
B. 21 deg 57 min N
081 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2809 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 092 deg 069 kt
G. 008 deg 020 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 11 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 07
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z

If it was away from land right now IMO we would be looking at another cat 5 Monster (I say another because we have had SO MANY these past few years!)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Here is the radar image with the 8mile wide eye circled in red:

[Frank P]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

looks to be running a little south of guidance in this loop..

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Now down to a 6 mile wide eye!

000
URNT12 KNHC 090743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/07:08:30Z
B. 21 deg 58 min N
081 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2798 m
D. 54 kt
E. 151 deg 021 nm
F. 234 deg 053 kt
G. 143 deg 008 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C6
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 11
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT SW QUAD 07:10:00 Z

[dwg71]

its clearly not a hurricane at this point, based on recon. 60kt TS.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

its clearly not a hurricane at this point, based on recon. 60kt TS.

But how the heck can you have a 966mb 60kt tropical storm with a CLOSED 6 mile wide eye and a strong high pressure to its north? It doesn't make sense! Just the pressure gradient between Ike's extremely low pressure and the High would be enough to create strong winds.

[superfly]

its clearly not a hurricane at this point, based on recon. 60kt TS.

Borderline, 69kts flight level and 63kts SFMR...I expect they'll maintain it as a minimal hurricane.

[mpic]

Just watching the rerun of the 10 pm news from last night...I was asleep and missed it. Telling Galveston residents to get ready. Looks like things have changed drastically. I'm packed up to miss the traffic and was planning to leave after work today. May just go ahead anyway cause I have a vacation week available that I save every year for hurricanes. More proof to watch the eye and not the line. They are doing a really good job on Houston 11 telling people not to leave if they aren't in evac areas and that is VERY encouraging.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

And even more the eye is starting to come out on IR this is the best its looked since coming off of Cuba!



Also Pressure is slowly falling now! Down to 965mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 090816
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/07:59:20Z
B. 22 deg 01 min N
081 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2772 m
D. 53 kt
E. 149 deg 5 nm
F. 239 deg 053 kt
G. 143 deg 018 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E27/15/12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1409A IKE1 OB 15
MAX FL WIND 69 KT N QUAD 06:12:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 64KT NW QUAD 08:01:30 Z
RAGGED EYE RADAR PRESENTATION

[THead]

Although looking a bit ragged, Ike still has a very symmetrical look, and with that small eye, he could ramp up quickly and be one scary looking beast once he gets into the gulf. Although, he looks to be crossing Cuba again in basically the same place Gustav did, right? Gustav got tore up a bit more than expected also didnt he?

I'll be watching Ike until he drops his last molecule of H2O.

Amateur observations

[mpic]

Great News from Great Inagua

Bird Watchers and Wildlife Organisations from around the world mobilised resources as Hurricane Ike bore down on the world's largest colony of West Indian Flamingos. But the news just out of Inagua is excellent, and all flamingo lovers can finally relax!

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/ ... mingos.php

Awesome news! I'll bet, too, that the people who monitor these birds noticed behavior that indicated the storm was coming. Next time you're in a close situation with a 'cane, if you're reall observant, you'll notice that you don't hear any birds singing at all. It's kind of eerie.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Although looking a bit ragged, Ike still has a very symmetrical look, and with that small eye, he could ramp up quickly and be one scary looking beast once he gets into the gulf. Although, he looks to be crossing Cuba again in basically the same place Gustav did, right? Gustav got tore up a bit more than expected also didnt he?

I'll be watching Ike until he drops his last molecule of H2O.

Amateur observations

Gustav had about 20kts of shear while going over Cuba so that greatly added to it being disrupted. Ike won't have that 20kts of shear so while it will get disrupted some I don't expect it to be disrupted any where near as much as Gustav. Also once in the Gulf Ike will have a few days over very warm waters with almost a perfect upper level environment. IMO theres no reason why it can't at the very least get back up to Major status if not 4 or even make a run at 5. Also looking at Cuban radar Ike's radar signature is greatly improving over the past half hour or so!

[mpic]

I'm a little leery of such a drastic shift of models that late in the evening. We'll see what happens during the day today. Been burnt by last minute shifts too many times. Not -removed- here, just being cautious.

Disclaimer: I am a total amateur and have no idea what I'm talking about.

[Derek Ortt]

the southern shift of the models seems to have stopped for now

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has a very small innercore...Maybe no more then 50 nmi across based on radar and IR satellite. Once it moves another .2 or so degree's into that open space with a lot more water, I expect this to strengthen I little. A super small system like this can also weaken very very fast once it moves over land. So, I fully expect a 55 knot tropical storm when this inners the gulf.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Watch for the eye to completely clear out with in the next few hours before Ike makes its final landfall in Cuba Providing it doesn't make any northern movements that brings it into Cuba sooner.