ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxman57]

Looks pretty disorganized to me on satellite. Can't even discern much rotation, if any. Surface obs don't show much around the storm. I still think Fay's winds will have a hard time reaching 60 mph before Cuba, and the center may not survive the crossing if it doesn't tighten up by then.

Time to head to the office...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks pretty disorganized to me on satellite. Can't even discern much rotation, if any. Surface obs don't show much around the storm. I still think Fay's winds will have a hard time reaching 60 mph before Cuba, and the center may not survive the crossing if it doesn't tighten up by then.

Time to head to the office...

If it moves down the spin for about 18 hours, I 100 percent agree. I don't think there will be much lefted if it does that. On the other hand if this heads more west-northwest throughout the next 24 hours, followed by a more northward cut right through the island. Then it will likely be more like what the nhc shows it.

[Derek Ortt]

this is NOT heading down the spine of Cuba

the windfield is well-defined based upon the aircraft data. Cannot fix the center since it has clipped the SE Peninsula

also, remember that the part of Cuba that this is expected to cross is flat

[Aquawind]

Looks like the first band is going through SE Florida now..

[tgenius]

Derek.. How far north on the East side of State do the hurricane watches go? It's a bit tough to gather from the graphic.. It appears like the track shifted a tad east overnight? I'm more concerned because if we get a Hurricane Watch that would require us at the office to initiate our BCP plan.. not fun

[ekal]

Looks like the first band is going through SE Florida now..

Yes, some rain here this morning with a few lightning strikes. No wind, though.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
552 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

AMZ630-FLZ073>075-173-174-171115-
BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE-
552 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.NOW...
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AN INITIAL SPIRAL BAND FROM
TROPICAL STORM FAY IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWEST THROUGH HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT AND INTO
FLORIDA BAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH WHILE THE ENTIRE LINE OF ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WEST AT 10 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY OCCUR. OFFSHORE...
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE TO MARINERS AS WINDS AND SEAS COULD BECOME
HIGHER IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO...WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

[tgenius]

Looks like the first band is going through SE Florida now..

We just felt it.. woke my wife and I up from the intensity of the rain/thunder/lightning.

[Aquawind]

Amazing my local weather office doesn't even mention I am in a hurricane watch?

[tailgater]

Weatherman 57 can you tell if the ULL over the western tip of Cuba is gonna stay put or back off, I ask because it seems to be starting to shear the western side of Fay.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


WOW 300 pages

[Lowpressure]

Derek.. How far north on the East side of State do the hurricane watches go? It's a bit tough to gather from the graphic.. It appears like the track shifted a tad east overnight? I'm more concerned because if we get a Hurricane Watch that would require us at the office to initiate our BCP plan.. not fun

Hope this helps
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[Aquawind]

Balmy for even the Keys this morning.. 86F and sticky 76F dewpoint. Sweaty preparations today..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Anyways its super hard to tell where the LLC based on satellite right now. With the radar and satellite, I believe it is now about ready to remerge back over water.

[deltadog03]

Matt, it looks based on recon, that the LLC (with lowest pressure find) is around here:

19.5 north.....longitude 78.6 west

[xironman]

Cuban radar sure makes it look that way http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cuban radar sure makes it look that way http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

19.95/77.7 moving west-northwest near 280 degree's...

I expect it to increase in strength before landfall over Cuba to 60 knots. We will see of course.

This is based on radar and satellite. With a few obs.

[Thunder44]

Looks pretty disorganized to me on satellite. Can't even discern much rotation, if any. Surface obs don't show much around the storm. I still think Fay's winds will have a hard time reaching 60 mph before Cuba, and the center may not survive the crossing if it doesn't tighten up by then.

Time to head to the office...

I suspect when daytime visible images comes in we will be able to see more rotation and organization. The convective pattern currently does looks disorganized on infrared imagery.

[xironman]

It is in the bullseye for water temps http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg, so that won't be holding it back.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe it will have pretty favorable upper levels and will have the SST's to strengthen over the 12-18 hours it will be south of Cuba. It is possible for a 60-65 knot system. Also it looks very good right now with good classic 9 shape starting to form.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 170739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY EFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WITH TS FAY IN PLACE SSE OF
CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WITH
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIFT
NORTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY AS FAY MOVES OVER
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FAY. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH
AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST
CENTRAL FL TUESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THIS STORM.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF TS FAY
CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL. BY TUE NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE CONDITION POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST
TUE NT INTO WED AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT. NUMEROUS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL NWS
TBW PRODUCTS WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED...AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ONCE FAY FINALLY MOVES N OF THE AREA LATER WED
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE
WEEK...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND HOLDS IN THE REGION FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

[tropicsgal05]

Hi everyone. I was just watching Dr. Lyons on TWC and he mentioned the panhandle. My question is if the panhandle has any chance of a hit then why are we out of the cone? TY