ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The dropsonde had 34 kt winds where the "center" was fixed, so 968mb seems to be the actual pressure right now.

[RL3AO]

The dropsonde had 34 kt winds where the "center" was fixed, so 968mb seems to be the actual pressure right now.

The drop was in the SW quad, about 50 miles from the center.

[Hurrilurker]

Gorgeous MODIS shot of Gustav coming off western Jamaica today:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 25.1km.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Kind of looks like a Eastern pacific borderline hurricane. I would say by looking at it around 65-70 knots, which is pretty close to what it is. Expecting some strengthing tonight.

[mpic]

Any idea of a time frame for when it will get on the other side of Cuba given the present speed?

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...It looks like the Caymans are getting rocked tonight...I hope everyone down there stays safe...

At least they don't have to worry about mudslides...Pretty flat in the Caymans.

SFT

[MHurricanes]

Check out the size of Katrina compared to Gustav, which is now growing:

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/katrina/126284main_Katrina_082705_516.jpg.html

What are the chances of Gustav blowing up to Katrina size?

- MHurricanes

[deltadog03]

REcon is heading back in quickly towards the center...My guess, as of now, would be very close to little cayman.

[wxman57]

REcon is heading back in quickly towards the center...My guess, as of now, would be very close to little cayman.

The eye is at the southern end of that circular blob of convection - about 35 miles south of Little Cayman Island near 19.2N/80.1W. Maybe even 19.1N. Little Cayman is at 19.6N.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

[Scorpion]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

The pressure has been falling fast, what do you mean?

[wxman57]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

Seems to be strengthening very quickly to me. I don't see any significant shear or dry air.

[deltadog03]

Ya, Chris just seen that...I was a bit too far north...Looks like he might playing on the tilt o whirl again....

[Dean4Storms]

It does appear to be tilted.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

The pressure has been falling fast, what do you mean?

What is keeping the floor from droping out. In what is to keep it from doing so. That is what I'm asking.

[CrazyC83]

Recon had a malfunction at the worst possible time - coming into the NE quad it appeared.

[soonertwister]

Three days ago I thought the intensity estimates were overly conservative, so we'll find out soon enough whether I was right or wrong.

[shah8]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

You have got to be kidding me.

Small storms do the explosive intensification.

Bigger, more experienced storms, like Gustav, do actually have to take more time to wind up. When that hot tower is joined up with others, or enough time for it to wrap around the eye, THEN you get the EI.


No need to be eager about it...

[Sanibel]

Hanna's outer fringe has already put a dent in Gus' outer ENE fringe:

[drezee]

010900 1945N 07921W 7793 02129 9957 +146 +145 153083 088 063 017 00

FLt level at 88 kts this guy is cranking now!!