ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[stevetampa33614]

My friends in Texas I hope you are preparing.

Also, Dolly should cure the drought the area is going through. Not all bad news. Its a shame the rain is gonna be accompanied with high winds.

[KWT]

It looks like that doesn't it Hurakan, i really can't say but it has slowed down in a big way and a little further east then some models were predicting, this will cause some headaches for the forecasters if it carries on.

Anyway got some outer cells now pushing into Texas:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Also this radar shows the main core of the hurricane way out to sea though most of it is still way out to sea.

[stevetampa33614]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201355.GIF

Did Dolly hit a wall? Because it has slowdown a great deal. Wow.

ya how bout that. Wonder what Recon is gonna find. Anybody wanna guess. Cat 1?

I think we will see 970 Mb 80mph winds pressure falling rapidly.

[americanrebel]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201355.GIF

Did Dolly hit a wall? Because it has slowdown a great deal. Wow.

ya how bout that. Wonder what Recon is gonna find. Anybody wanna guess. Cat 1?

I think we will see 970 Mb 80mph winds pressure falling rapidly.

I would have to agree that it will be close to that, who knows maybe a little higher winds, lower pressure. say 85mph and 968 Mb.

[carversteve]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201355.GIF

Did Dolly hit a wall? Because it has slowdown a great deal. Wow.

She looks like she's hardly moving at all..WOW!! Looks to have slowed quite a bit.

[Portastorm]

Morning gang! So Dolly has slowed just like our pro mets said she would. Wonder if that turn to the northwest is next?!

[HURAKAN]

Lets not speculate and wait for the RECON. Dolly/94L hasn't been easy to solve. Appearance is not always a good estimate in this case.

[stevetampa33614]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 201355.GIF

Did Dolly hit a wall? Because it has slowdown a great deal. Wow.

ya how bout that. Wonder what Recon is gonna find. Anybody wanna guess. Cat 1?

I think we will see 970 Mb 80mph winds pressure falling rapidly.

I would have to agree that it will be close to that, who knows maybe a little higher winds, lower pressure. say 85mph and 968 Mb.

Why is the HWRF Forecasting 103kt winds North. Man that thing is batting for the other team.


GFDL is kinda of End of the world too this morning.

[HURAKAN]

Dolly is a NY Yankee fan!

[KWT]

Well Hurakan's loop does show it moving but its not really all that fast I have to admit, probably only 5-6mph at the moment I'd guess.

As for its strength, I don't think its quite as strong as what some people will do though I think it may well be getting closer to hurricane status now, probably a little shy with the pressure probably dropping away pretty steadily now.

[Smurfwicked]

To all those just waking up in shook of her apparent stall, if you read back from the overnite hours I believe you'll find that shes been moving at about 7mph for about 3 hours now. (I Think) And if thats true, I've calculated that gives her about 25 more hours on water than her old speed of 17mph. And that if she continues to Brownsville at this rate she should arrive there around 10pm wednesday. (Thats if my calculations was correct)

I'm eager to see what the pro mets have to say about any potential northward shift because of this.

[Portastorm]

To all those just waking up in shook of her apparent stall, if you read back from the overnite hours I believe you'll find that shes been moving at about 7mph for about 3 hours now. (I Think) And if thats true, I've calculated that gives her about 25 more hours on water than her old speed of 17mph. And that if she continues to Brownsville at this rate she should arrive there around 10pm wednesday. (Thats if my calculations was correct)

I'm eager to see what the pro mets have to say about any potential northward shift because of this.

Thanks Smurf! I, like many others I bet, share your anticipation. Tracking Dolly since she was 94L has been a fascinating experience ... for sure.

[KWT]

If anything this system has been trending south of where it should have been but thats not to say there can't be a shift to the north eithe rif it does decide to strengthen. Still Smurfwicked your right this system is going to have a lot longer over water then what it would have had if it kept that foward speed it had 12hrs ago, really not al lthat surprising its slowed right down given it was expected by the models and also by the pros.

[stevetampa33614]

I'm eager to see what the pro mets have to say about any potential northward shift because of this.

Not a pro but that ridge isnt going to weaken that soon. So based on your calculations which pretty damn good concerning speed, at that rate Dolly will pretty much be heading straight line with less than 30 hours to get her act together. She could slow down tho, who knows. Lets hope she maintains her speed. The second that ridge weakens she is gonna find a weakness and head more North-West. Worst case scenario is if she is moving less than 5 mph.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Well as it is now shes going about 7 mph she can't slow down all that much more with out Upwelling becoming a concern.

[Smurfwicked]

If anything this system has been trending south of where it should have been but thats not to say there can't be a shift to the north eithe rif it does decide to strengthen. Still Smurfwicked your right this system is going to have a lot longer over water then what it would have had if it kept that foward speed it had 12hrs ago, really not al lthat surprising its slowed right down given it was expected by the models and also by the pros.

Well either the change in speed drastically dropped significantly at this time a few hours ago or nobody noticed it before. Others have said the NHC will average out the speed so this change in speed, which would explain why what I am looking at says its still going faster than it is, I guess.

[stevetampa33614]

Well as it is now shes going about 7 mph she can't slow down all that much more with out Upwelling becoming a concern.

Upwelling in the gulf of mexico? Correct me if Im wrong Those waters are prettyshallow and fairly warm even at the deeper spots. Upwelling wont be a factor I dont think (Pro:Met: CONFIRM/DENY?)

Ive kinda been wondering this so I will repost this question if it doesnt get answer. Google isnt being very helpful with MET topics.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is on the eastern side of the convection, and appears to be moving around 7-8 mph.

I would guest that the recon will find a 60 knot tropical storm with pressure near 994 millibars. It does not look super good, yes it has a cdo but microwave images posted did not show a eye.

[KWT]

Well 7mph is just an estimate rigyht now I think the next NHC advisory will give us a much better indication if its true foward speed.

Matt, I do agree thoughthe microwave imagery was pretty old by that point so it may have moved a long way since then give that was taken beofre we got the CDO develop I believe.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Matt all Microwave data I have seen was from last night or really early this morning. Theres been none that I know of since dolly started organizing quickly