ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Emmett_Brown]

Fay is in a favorable environment now. 8am is 20.0 N 78.0W. She is clearing the small peninsula on the S coast of Cuba, an is also pulling away from Jamaica. Passing between Cuba and Jamaica has hindered development... mountains to the S and N... now there will only be land to the N. The land to the N is also a lot flatter, so Low level inflow should be better overall today.

Today is really big... Fay wont do much in the GOM if there is no central core. So Fay has to get a solid core together today for the trip across tonight.

[Shockwave]

This storm reminds me of a rookie athlete who has tons of potential, everything ripe for intensification, but never lives up to the hype because it can't get its act together
of course I am hoping that it never reaches its potential and just brings well needed rain to Lake Och and the Southeast but I am really shocked it can't get past this tropical storm stage

Nice analogy! I'm surprised as much as you are. Can anyone explain to me why the HNC decided to take out the potential of a Cat. 1 hurricane at landfall? I thought a Cat. 1 would be easy for her to get too?

[cycloneye]

The latest at 7:45 AM EDT

[ekal]

NHC still predicts a cat 1 at landfall, but that occurs between the forecast points, so you do not see it in the intensity numbers at the bottom of the discussion.

FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

In terms of why this has not gotten stronger, land interaction is the culprit. I think it was downplayed a bit too much with this system.

[jinftl]

NHC still expects a hurricane....in the 5am discussion they add this unusual comment...

FAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.


On a side note, fay is holding it together better than the top draft pick debbie did a few years back!

This storm reminds me of a rookie athlete who has tons of potential, everything ripe for intensification, but never lives up to the hype because it can't get its act together
of course I am hoping that it never reaches its potential and just brings well needed rain to Lake Och and the Southeast but I am really shocked it can't get past this tropical storm stage

Nice analogy! I'm surprised as much as you are. Can anyone explain to me why the HNC decided to take out the potential of a Cat. 1 hurricane at landfall? I thought a Cat. 1 would be easy for her to get too?

[carolina_73]

Looks disorganized. Does this look right??? Sorry about the artwork I'm zzzz and it's early.

[ronjon]

First VIS shows center around 19.5N-77.8W - it appears to be moving west and looks likely now to clear the SW peninsula and be over open water south of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

I don't rely on there radar..not very good..plus this thing is broad...so, ya its a tough call...Thats just where they found the lowest pressure. It makes a little sense, since FAY can't seem to get it together right now.

Delta,

Be aware that the extrapolated sfc pressure get less and less accurate with altitude. The low pressures you see in the obs are as the aircraft is climbing up to near 14kft, and are likely very inaccurate. The actual low level center is almost certainly farther north and east along the Cuban coast.

the 1000mb also occurred during a steep climb... it can be chucked

[cycloneye]

First VIS shows center around 19.5N-77.8W - it appears to be moving west and looks likely now to clear the SW peninsula and be over open water south of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

The 8 AM advisory position is 20.0n-78.0w.

[Normandy]

20.N and 78.0W is an excellent placement for the center. MLC is located just south of the Low Level Center. Fay is currently organizing IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't rely on there radar..not very good..plus this thing is broad...so, ya its a tough call...Thats just where they found the lowest pressure. It makes a little sense, since FAY can't seem to get it together right now.

Delta,

Be aware that the extrapolated sfc pressure get less and less accurate with altitude. The low pressures you see in the obs are as the aircraft is climbing up to near 14kft, and are likely very inaccurate. The actual low level center is almost certainly farther north and east along the Cuban coast.

the 1000mb also occurred during a steep climb... it can be chucked

Derek you buying the crossing the state solutions yet that the GFS,GFDL,and Can are portraying?

[jlauderdal]

phil ferro, channel 7 chief weather guy just asked NHC Director what cuba can expect as far as wind surge, why do i torture myself watching local media botch the terminology

[jinftl]

I heard that too...could always count on bryan norcross to explain things and sound like an expert...

phil ferro, channel 7 chief weather guy just asked NHC Director what cuba can expect as far as wind surge, why do i torture myself watching local media botch the terminology

[wxman57]

Not much time to post. Here's a plot of some of the best 06Z models. I removed the BAM models, experimental NOGAPS runs, and various iterations of the NAM from the plot. Tight consensus into Florida.

[Sihara]

if the hurricane watch is extended north to include the tampa bay area at 11am, that should get people's attention...

Let's hope so. But I haven't noticed the level of awareness here that there is in S. Florida. True, the danger isn't as great in terms of how often hurricanes hit, but it only takes one.

Gtalum in Sarasota - you wondered about shuttering. My suggestion is, do it today. We're in the same situation as you- we'll be at work tomorrow. So today, we'll board up the small windows that don't have accordions yet, and then tomorrow, we'll shut the accordions on the other windows.

To Matt, thank you very much for your answer. That makes it a lot clearer to me.

[tampastorm]

From 5 AM.. Can someone explain why?

In the
southeastern Gulf...these winds are not expected to be as conducive
for strengthening.

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 8:15 AM EDT:

[johngaltfla]

Not much time to post. Here's a plot of some of the best 06Z models. I removed the BAM models, experimental NOGAPS runs, and various iterations of the NAM from the plot. Tight consensus into Florida.

Thank you Wx; with that in mind, do you think they will extend the watches up to Anna Maria at 1100 or wait until 1700? Just curious as I have older relatives to take care of in the area also.

[jinftl]

andrew is forever imprinted on the brains of quite a few south floridians....once you have lost a home to a hurricane, you take them very serious...as does local media and govt.

if the hurricane watch is extended north to include the tampa bay area at 11am, that should get people's attention...

Let's hope so. But I haven't noticed the level of awareness here that there is in S. Florida. True, the danger isn't as great in terms of how often hurricanes hit, but it only takes one.

Gtalum in Sarasota - you wondered about shuttering. My suggestion is, do it today. We're in the same situation as you- we'll be at work tomorrow. So today, we'll board up the small windows that don't have accordions yet, and then tomorrow, we'll shut the accordions on the other windows.

To Matt, thank you very much for your answer. That makes it a lot clearer to me.

[jlauderdal]

I heard that too...could always count on bryan norcross to explain things and sound like an expert...

phil ferro, channel 7 chief weather guy just asked NHC Director what cuba can expect as far as wind surge, why do i torture myself watching local media botch the terminology

kamal was good but now he is in the big house and the guy on channel 6 was good but he moved to salt lake city so really channel 10 with max mayfield is the only choice, phil feerro keeps trying to scare everyone with possibilities of track changes and intensification..bill read was on to he didnt exactly sound real confident in the forecast either so bottom line i feel like we are on our own here to figure it out