ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

Ready ... Set ... Go!

Going to be a scary one when he comes off Cuba.

[HURAKAN]

NO is in danger from this storm but with 3 days at least away I wouldn't put it better than 50/50 right now.

Would you risk your live in a 50/50 shot? I think it's better safe than sorry and getting the hell out of New Orleans is the best solution at this point. Lesson from Katrina. She will always be a ghost that appears in this kind of situations.

[Weatherfreak000]

My reasoning behind that assumption was asserted by Derek Ortt's recent forecast. (You can go read up on that)


Although I don't have the models or info he does...i'm assuming we at least agree in a generalized NW motion all the way until landfall with of course the occasional wobble. Basically a track consistent with what the GFDL has shown for the past 36 hours or so.

That's why I made my assertion, but in the end it'll all come together when this storm emerges in the Gulf, and then we'll know.

[pablolopez26]

Ladies and Gentlemen here is a good link with some current information on the Cayman island conditions.

I found this on the Wunderground Site and thought it to be quite interesting to see the lashing those islands are getting right now.

http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html

[Steve]

>>That doesn't mean that they shouldn't be evacuating at-risk populations now or soon. You can't take chances with possible cat-4 or -5 storms.

Thinking our mandatory in Lafourche kicks in around 3:00pm tomorrow. We'll probably blow out late night or sometime Sunday depending on traffic and model solutions over the next 3 or 4 runs.

>>I'm just glad jindal is in charge, instead of Nagin or LA's former governor.

This has always been a bit of a political hatchet job. While I think the state and local responses were poor, it was dwarved by the ineptness of the federal government - who admitted that they bore the most culpability after the hearings - and certainly the Army Corps of Engineers who don't report to state or local officials. I voted for Jindal in 2003 (he lost that race), but no one could have seen anything like that coming the way it went down. I mean we always knew but there is no way the same mistakes will be repeated by anyone but citizens being irresponsible. The lessons are learned and people know the deal. The biggest problem with Gustav - on the current forecast track, is that many of the areas that only got glancing blows from Rita's tidal surge (talking southern Terrebonne Parish and then more serious devastation for points west of there) may well find themselves in big trouble. Depending on heading and landfall, there should be major league coastal erosion and a lot of areas where thousands of us have moved post-Katrina and haven't faced many recent storms (outside of Cindy and Isadore) could be in serious trouble. Like I said, we'll be packing up tonight and heading out at some point this weekend. Hopefully we'll be able to return to our refugee home here in Lafourche Parish, but if not, we'll find our way to wherever life takes us. FWIW, Good luck to everyone else in harm's way. I should be around through sometime this weekend and will check back on at some point thereafter.

Yo.

Steve

[dhweather]

The 00Z GFDL is paramount to me in the forecast. Right now, there's a slight flow SW to NE over the SE GOM. If Gus gets pulled by that (origin is a large low off the new england coast), NOLA is going to have an increased risk. If Gus is not influenced by this, then I'm buying more towards Lake Charles.


this is not an official forecast and should not be used as such

[bahamaswx]

This is not a N.O. hurricane.

This is equally as ridiculous and stating that NOLA landfall probabilities are up to 50%. Anywhere from MS to SE TX are a real possibility.

[AJC3]

NO is in danger from this storm but with 3 days at least away I wouldn't put it better than 50/50 right now.

Yeah, the latest probablistic charts from NHC list about a 20% prob of HURCN force winds occurring over SE LA, and a 60+ % prob of TS force winds...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[Praxus]

I agree. I think those in Lake Charles should be very concerned. This is not a N.O. hurricane.

I don't know how you can make such a definite statement...there's no evidence to show it WILL NOT be.

[HURAKAN]

By the way, Katrina only produced category 1 conditions over New Orleans storm and we already know what happened due to storm surge and subsequent levees failures. If the current forecast track prevails, it will be even worse for New Orleans as the city will be in the worse part of the storm. Furthermore, the storm surge will pile over the mouth of the Mississippi likely causing the fortified and repaired levees to fail. You may want to hype the situation, but downplaying it could be deadly.

[weatherguru18]

NO is in danger from this storm but with 3 days at least away I wouldn't put it better than 50/50 right now.

Would you risk your live in a 50/50 shot? I think it's better safe than sorry and getting the hell out of New Orleans is the best solution at this point. Lesson from Katrina. She will always be a ghost that appears in this kind of situations.

That's an aweful lot of money to evacuate New Orleans. (Isn't a million dollars for every mile of coast?) Is it any wonder why so many out there said it shouldn't be rebuilt???? It was bound to happen again...but that's a different gripe for a different thread. All the model guidence is now west of N.O. by a good bit with the GFDL the closest and even it has shifted west all day.

[bahamaswx]

Any surface obs from little cayman?

[Weatherfreak000]

By the way, Katrina only produced category 1 conditions over New Orleans storm and we already know what happened due to storm surge and subsequent levees failures. If the current forecast track prevails, it will be even worse for New Orleans as the city will be in the worse part of the storm. Furthermore, the storm surge will pile over the mouth of the Mississippi likely causing the fortified and repaired levees to fail. You may want to hype the situation, but downplaying it could be deadly.

Great post Hurakan, a very excellent point.

[gatorcane]

The FL Keys are already seeing some pretty good wind gusts:

Sand Key Missing E 25G/27 kts
Sombrero Key Missing E 23G/25 kts

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/observations.php

[weatherguru18]

I agree. I think those in Lake Charles should be very concerned. This is not a N.O. hurricane.

I don't know how you can make such a definite statement...there's no evidence to show it WILL NOT be.

Well I think it's stupid to hype New Orleans when others to the west like Lafayette could be in even greater danger...not to mention Cameron and Beaumont.

[dhweather]

By the way, Katrina only produced category 1 conditions over New Orleans storm and we already know what happened due to storm surge and subsequent levees failures. If the current forecast track prevails, it will be even worse for New Orleans as the city will be in the worse part of the storm. Furthermore, the storm surge will pile over the mouth of the Mississippi likely causing the fortified and repaired levees to fail. You may want to hype the situation, but downplaying it could be deadly.

You could not be more correct!!!

NOLA got off light with Katrina. Mississippi's gulf coast was leveled - wiped from the face of the earth. Sure, the floods were terrible, but New Orleans has still not had its "worst case scenario". When that happens, it will truly be catastrophic.

[HURAKAN]

weatherguru18, in the richest and most powerful country in the face of the Earth money shouldn't be an issue when it has to be used to save a human life. It shouldn't be an issue.

[Jake8898]

I'm wondering....When the forecasters say a storm will be blocked or move up the side of a high pressure system, how close does the eye get to the boundary of the high? Does the eyewall bounce into it or ride along the ridge, or does some other part of the storm touch the high? Is it the outskirts of the storm say 150-250 miles out from center that bumps into and reacts to the high?

[tolakram]

NO is in danger from this storm but with 3 days at least away I wouldn't put it better than 50/50 right now.

Would you risk your live in a 50/50 shot? I think it's better safe than sorry and getting the hell out of New Orleans is the best solution at this point. Lesson from Katrina. She will always be a ghost that appears in this kind of situations.

That's an aweful lot of money to evacuate New Orleans. (Isn't a million dollars for every mile of coast?) Is it any wonder why so many out there said it shouldn't be rebuilt???? It was bound to happen again...but that's a different gripe for a different thread. All the model guidence is now west of N.O. by a good bit with the GFDL the closest and even it has shifted west all day.

There is no sound basis for your statements or argument. N.O. will be close enough to not take any changes.

The Woodlands, TX

We've all seen this too many times.

[vaffie]

based on recon data, it has been traveling at 281 degrees on average for the last three hours. it had previously been traveling at 300. so turning to the west somewhat. 12 minutes north, 63 minutes west, if you want to do the calculation yourself.