ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Normandy]

Incredibly intense bursting convection is now occuring over Dolly's center, and with the measured pressure drop of 11 mbs since last recon, it is reasonable to believe that right now Dolly is about to under go RI. For the first time in a while, Dolly has some nice outflow on the southern quad (starting to have some nice outflow) and a CDO is forming quickly. GOnna be a lot of scared folks by tommorrow night im afraid.......

[stevetampa33614]

Storm structure: still no eye development. [b]edit 4 hours OLD[/b]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[perk]

Using the tropical forecast points, Dolly looks like she has slowed to a crawl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Pressures are sure impressive this morning.

canetracker i think your observation is right on the money.

[KWT]

Yeah Matt indeed we had 51kts estimated at the surface even before we had that last set of obs, typical though that we missed the strongest winds!

canetracker, yep its slowed right down thats not a good thing because it looks like its getting pretty quickly now, inner core has really set itself up well now.

I'd guess we have about 60kts right now but its clearly strengthening, probably will be a hurricane in the next 12hrs.

[Hyperstorm]

Fiinally, the easterly and southeasterly shear that has been abating Dolly for the past 24-36 hours is retreating. Outflow is starting to expand on the eastern quadrant and strengthening is imminent.

The time has come...

[Sanibel]

Deep convection finally centered. Track lowered into Mexico by border. Only question is strength now.

Just had rain from eastern most convection from Dolly.

[stevetampa33614]

Very Very big burst of convection last frame. Please Dolly, Dont do this to us.... Just move inland already.

[KWT]

Think we are about to see Dolly underog the much feared RI, looking quite possible that the NHC are going to be way too low on the max strength if it gets going like it may do.

[stevetampa33614]

Sat show -80 Cloud tops in areas of the CDO. This thing is taking off right now.

funktop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

[Sanibel]

It will develop an eye if it does.

[stevetampa33614]

We sould have first visible pictures in an hour. Should see whats going on then

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Storm structure: still no eye development.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

Even that is 4 hours old alot has been going on in the last 4 hours!

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep -80C is pretty cold, its only a matter of time before that eye pops on at least IR, I'm really looking foward to the Vis imagery!
Indeed even recon has noted that it does have a ragged eye.

[canetracker]

Considering she looks to be undergoing RI, hopefully she will start to move soon.

[americanrebel]

Considering she looks to be undergoing RI, hopefully she will start to move soon.

Looks like it is getting close to -90, that is very cold.

[stevetampa33614]

Heh cute. Whats the score anyway?

EPAC 6
ATLANTIC 4 maybe 5. That wave off africa looks great.


Man its a shame they all cant head up the coast like in the EPAC. Dont think its possible for california to get hit by a Tropical Storm.

[Sanibel]

Covers the whole Gulf. We just got rain from Dolly's outermost eastern band. Thunder too.

[stevetampa33614]

Covers the whole Gulf. We just got rain from Dolly's outermost eastern band. Thunder too.

We have some clouds thats it. Thats bout all I want from it too

Whoa I got upgraded to a Tropical Depression. Awesome. Fear my 30mph wind

[americanrebel]

Just watching the Thunder heads growing just off shore from the outer band, should get some rain today and the next few days from her.