ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[WmE]

Heh cute. Whats the score anyway?

EPAC 6
ATLANTIC 4 maybe 5. That wave off africa looks great.


Man its a shame they all cant head up the coast like in the EPAC. Dont think its possible for california to get hit by a Tropical Storm.

Well there haven been 2 tropical storms that made landfalll in California.

[KWT]

Yep americanrebel tmeps probably at the coldest they wil lbe given the time of the day over there, they will warm a little as the day goes on but thats to be expected somewhat, should still see some cold cloud tops and with the heat content we have there is no reason why this can't bomb out

Slow movement still looks like since the last recon fixes its moved NW.

[stevetampa33614]

should still see some cold cloud tops and with the heat content we have there is no reason why this can't bomb out

Ya Im still thing category 2 and I hope im right and nothing stronger. The models are all placing intensity in that Cat-1 -2 Scale.

Edit. However it wasnt supposed to slow down just yet its 12 hours early

[Sanibel]

On trop points track more NW.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Fiinally, the easterly and southeasterly shear that has been abating Dolly for the past 24-36 hours is retreating. Outflow is starting to expand on the eastern quadrant and strengthening is imminent.

The time has come...

Yea was hoping this would not happen but it looks inevitable...Still loks like she will be mexican though....Lets hope all are ready...

[stevetampa33614]

Im trying to Rock the last 2 frames and I cant really figure out where its going. Ide say its still W. But its hard to tell without the visible. And eye would be nice.

[stevetampa33614]

HWRF has landfall much further N with landfall occuring at about 27.4N 97.3 and undergoing rapid intensification. Landfall over 40 hours away on the 06 HWRF...a model the NHC believes will replace the GFDL.

Ya I posted that, but I chalked it up as being on being on Crack. said winds would be at 120mph at landfall. Just dont know at this point. Its alot farther north than the other models. GFS is dead smack on the Border. I tend to trust GFS a bit more. IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

From a rain perspecting I'm begining to get slightly concerned for TX/LA/MS/AL (Northern Gulf Coast). AS you can see the outer bands are poised to extend into those areas later today. If that band Trains coupled with daytime Heating all could be in for some intense Tropical Downpours and rain. Anyone thinking this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[KWT]

Problem is stevetampa33614 the models can't always be trusted for strength issues, the thing is its got at elast 24hrs under very faovrable conditions, we've seen systems really bomb in these conditions and we've seen plenty of times these waters support cat-3/4 pretty readily. I don't think its got time for that sort of strength but cat-2/3 is possible, esp if it does have more time offland then estimated.

hurricanelandfall, its interesting that the systme has just recently been moving to the NW according to recon, a deeper storm may be able to drift just that little bit further north. How strong does it make Dolly?

[americanrebel]

Another side note, the tops of the Thunder Heads are getting blown off to the North maybe North-North West. So if that is any sign, the steering currents of the Upper Level is more North. Of course this is just in Abbeville, La. just north of Intracoastal City.

[canetracker]

Im trying to Rock the last 2 frames and I cant really figure out where its going. Ide say its still W. But its hard to tell without the visible. And eye would be nice.

It looks to be barely moving if at all with maybe a NW component.

[ronjon]

Outer rain bands already approaching coastal LA.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=lch&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[stevetampa33614]

Problem is stevetampa33614 the models can't always be trusted for strength issues, the thing is its got at elast 24hrs under very faovrable conditions, we've seen systems really bomb in these conditions and we've seen plenty of times these waters support cat-3/4 pretty readily. I don't think its got time for that sort of strength but cat-2/3 is possible, esp if it does have more time offland then estimated.

hurricanelandfall, its interesting that the systme has just recently been moving to the NW according to recon, a deeper storm may be able to drift just that little bit further north. How strong does it make Dolly?

It puts dolly at 103kts/120mph/925mb which is a pretty significant system.

edit reposting it again
Click for large


Disclaimer. THIS IS JUST A MODEL.ALWAYS REFER TO YOUR LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR OFFICIAL WARNINGS PLZ

[HouTXmetro]

Another side note, the tops of the Thunder Heads are getting blown off to the North maybe North-North West. So if that is any sign, the steering currents of the Upper Level is more North. Of course this is just in Abbeville, La. just north of Intracoastal City.

Hey I been to Abbeville before, was just in New Iberia Saturday! But anyways, I think that is the flow right now, North/NNW. My question is how good are the models in predicting the High will build back in? Is it possibele the weakness might be more pronouced and Dolly takes advantage of it?

[funster]

What position did recon put Dolly at?

[funster]

Other models seem to take Dolly wnw and nw and then plunge her off to the Southwest http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

If that happens there will be lots of concerns it is going to go much farther north and then suddenly it will turn back to the west again.

[KWT]

Hmmm at that height above ground I'd guess the HWRF would have winds around 95kts at the surface so probably high end cat-2 sustained winds at the surface. Its certainly possible though all depends on the exact track it takes, if it can stay slow and go more to the NW then there is every chance it could do that.

[cycloneye]

The latest from the 12:00 UTC guidance puts the track moving 300 degrees at 11 kts.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.7N LONCUR = 94.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

[canetracker]

Another side note, the tops of the Thunder Heads are getting blown off to the North maybe North-North West. So if that is any sign, the steering currents of the Upper Level is more North. Of course this is just in Abbeville, La. just north of Intracoastal City.

These are the latest steering currents. However, they are almost 3 hours old.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm2&zoom=&time=

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html


see the weaken from 3 hours ago....see the weakness now.....also on WV see the weak ULL dropping down the Rio Grande...what roll that plays remains to be seen if any...