ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Quite possibly Rock, its one of those things where we have to wait and see...

Anyway today is Ike's last real test before the open waters of the gulf with low shear and also high heat content, so I think tomorrow will bbe a very interesting day to watch Ike progress and probably strengthen readily.

[hiflyer]

Los Palacios to La Palma looks to be the track....some topo maps indicate a little path thru there that the storm could follow....dang.

[HouTXmetro]

Wasnt the latest UKMET North of Corpus?

[Canelaw99]

From the NHC 8am advisory, S FL can finally stop paying attention LOL:

"INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IKE."

[ROCK]

Quite possibly Rock, its one of those things where we have to wait and see...

Anyway today is Ike's last real test before the open waters of the gulf with low shear and also high heat content, so I think tomorrow will bbe a very interesting day to watch Ike progress and probably strengthen readily.

Yeah KWT....core still well established but yo know the West side of Cuba did a number on Gus.....but Ike has been mountain climbing also and survived....

those poor Cuba people....they didnt even have time to put there lives back together before cat 4 Gus now they get a cat 1 Ike...thoughts and prayers...

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Big difference with Ike and Gustav though, Gus had a good 20-30kts of shear over it when it came from Cuba whilst Ike doesn't have any of those sorts of worries.

Anyway looks to me as if Ike has take a slight NW jog looking at recon fixes and also the sat.imagery just recently.

[HouTXmetro]

My guess is as Ike strengthens in the open waters he starts to Veer right of the forecast points. The models will then start to respond. Ultimately making landfall North of Corpus.

Unofficial Foreacast

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well, even if it makes landfall at the Mexico/Texas border the effects of Gustav will be felt along a huge part of the Texas coastline since it's very likely to be a much bigger storm than Dolly for example.

[KWT]

apocalypt-flyer, you mean Ike I take it

Anyway will be very interesting to see what this will do in the gulf, Gustav never really had good eenough conditions aloft to take full advantage of the loop current, Ike won't have that issue to worry about.

[dwg71]

radar shows a more west course the last hour.

[Normandy]

VDM's show a more WNW course over the past three hours. Ike is about 20 miles N of the forecast track at this point in time.

[KWT]

dwg71, I'm guessing Ike is wobbling along a WNW track right now, it took a bit of a NW jog according to all the data about 90 mins ago so its to be expected if its taken a wobble back west. Still a little to the east of the NHC track but nothing too extreme really.

[Sanibel]

Well, like Dean and Felix another hard lesson in expecting recurve under climatology.

Ike is to our south. Hazy overcast with dim sun showing through here with little shreds of cotton like clouds to the south of the island in band rotation. Light 15-25mph winds. Ike's heavy bands are about 60 miles to our south. Ike's center is about 275 miles to our south and the closest pass to SW Florida. Big scare here for nothing. High pressure keeps Ike well south of Florida. We look now to the east for the next one.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the area between the Northern Mexican coast to somewhere in the Texas Gulf Coast will see a landfall from Ike.Lets post observations from the areas that may be impacted,preparations in the different areas and any web cams from the area.As it becomes more clear the area of landfall the title will be edited to reflect that.

Here is a web cam at the Corpus Christi Bayfront.

http://www.cctexas.com/webcam/

[KWT]

Yeah true Sanibel and the high does seem to have been very strong as well so who knows it may just truck it westward after its past the slight weakness in the high.

[Frank2]

The folks in LA are relieved, you can bet on that - yesterday the media said that some were almost despairing at the thought of having to evacuate again, and, even the Governor looked stressed during his press conference...

[carversteve]

Is it my eyes or maybe a wobble..but Ike seems to be moving nw instead of wnw..Comments welcomed as i am just loving tracking Ike!!

[gatorcane]

The folks in LA are relieved, you can bet on that - yesterday the media said that some were almost disparing at the thought of having to evacuate again, and, even the Governor looked stressed during his press conference...

Frank2 residents of Mexico are not relieved though as they keep seeing the track shift farther and farther west.

[cycloneye]

9:15 AM EDT. About to make landfall.