ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

cycloneye how long is that averaged from?
11kts seems a little on the quick side but its hard to say without Vis imagery, the direction looks about right though, that would take it pretty close to the border, just south probably if it doesn't lift any further north.

Edit---12hrs averaged, so therefore probably will be balanced out with the faster speed in the first 6hrs, I think the 18z plot will show a much reduced foward speed.

[HouTXmetro]

SHIPS says 73kts on the 12z run and all of the BAMS have shifted N...the trend of stronger and north continues...

Is it just me or do all of the models tend to shift North in the morning and South in the evenings?

[Big O]

Im trying to Rock the last 2 frames and I cant really figure out where its going. Ide say its still W. But its hard to tell without the visible. And eye would be nice.

It looks to be barely moving if at all with maybe a NW component.

I live in the Rio Grande Valley and was wondering if the NHC is likely to shift the anticipated landfall further south given the 6z model runs? Also, if it does get shifted south what can I expect in terms of winds given that I live in McAllen about 70 miles wnw of BRO? Your help is greatly appreciated as I am advising people on storm preparations at my office and in my city.

[stevetampa33614]

Buoy 42002 is at 25.8N 93.7W its the one to watch. Its going to be right in the thick of this thing, Great place for a bouy.




http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

There is the link. May wanna bookmark it.

Pretty Calm. Winds 30 knots.

[HouTXmetro]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html


see the weaken from 3 hours ago....see the weakness now.....also on WV see the weak ULL dropping down the Rio Grande...what roll that plays remains to be seen if any...

Please post a link to the WV loop showing the ULL.

[KWT]

I think they will hold their current position Big O.

hurricanelandfall, that goes along with the NHC thinking of this reaching 75kts though I think if it keeps up its current development no reason to doubt it can't go higher then that if it has 30-36hrs over water still.

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html


see the weaken from 3 hours ago....see the weakness now.....also on WV see the weak ULL dropping down the Rio Grande...what roll that plays remains to be seen if any...

Please post a link to the WV loop showing the ULL.

your killing me.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-wv.html

[americanrebel]

123830 2316N 09338W 6963 03117 9987 +100 +100 214046 050 063 033 03
123900 2317N 09340W 6963 03111 9984 +098 +098 222041 044 065 020 03

So we can now say that she is either Maximum TS or Minimum Hurricane.

[carversteve]

This is not official by any means nor do i play a met on Tv..Buttt..it sure looks like she is moving north and i just watched CNN.I know CNN,but almost all of the models that they had and there was quite a few,all but one or two take dolly from south texas to almost but not quite,central texas..Comments welcomed!!

[perk]

Thanks Rock that's a good view of both.

[ronjon]

The storm is expected to turn N-NW later today. Watch what happens around 95W long. Most of the dynamic hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) actually turn the storm N-NW for about 12-18 hrs toward Houston, then turn back W-NW toward landfall. If this happens expect this board to get hopping.

[americanrebel]

The storm is expected to turn N-NW later today. Watch what happens around 95W long. Most of the dynamic hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) actually turn the storm N-NW for about 12-18 hrs toward Houston, then turn back W-NW toward landfall. If this happens expect this board to get hopping.

Can you please post these in the Models Thread, I don't know where to see all these different models.

[KWT]

Should be noted that we have some decent rain bands now heading into LA and also into eastern Texas, should see some good rains here over the next few hours. Also center now showing on radar loops out of Bro though main storm shield still a little bit away.

[JPmia]

This is not official by any means nor do i play a met on Tv..Buttt..it sure looks like she is moving north and i just watched CNN.I know CNN,but almost all of the models that they had and there was quite a few,all but one or two take dolly from south texas to almost but not quite,central texas..Comments welcomed!!

Nope, it appears she is still on the NHC track forecast, wait until later today.

[stevetampa33614]

A good band is about to hit Bouy 42002. So far winds are 29kts. Center is about 100 + miles Southeast I think I cant guage distance on this scale. See what happens. Waves are at 13 Feet.

[KWT]

GFDL starts out far too weak this system at 1000mbs. Yep it does take the system NW for a little while then bends it back to the WNW but on this run it only just gets to hurricane status probably because it starts off to low.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is not official by any means nor do i play a met on Tv..Buttt..it sure looks like she is moving north and i just watched CNN.I know CNN,but almost all of the models that they had and there was quite a few,all but one or two take dolly from south texas to almost but not quite,central texas..Comments welcomed!!

Nope, it appears she is still on the NHC track forecast, wat until later today.

NHC about 95% accurate 36 hrs out...

[ronjon]

GFDL starts out far too weak this system at 1000mbs. Yep it does take the system NW for a little while then bends it back to the WNW but on this run it only just gets to hurricane status probably because it starts off to low.

Agreed, KWT, need to throw out the 06Z GFDL because its too weak in intensity. 06Z HWRF does a better job with intensity and brings the storm northward off the TX coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008072206-dolly04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

again lowest pressure is 990mb

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am not saying it will happen but I would not be surprized if we see alittle bit of RAPID intensification. But I could very well be wrong but I feel this could happen??????????