ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dhweather]

Is it developing a double eyewall? And if so does this inhibit development?

I do not believe that Gus is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. He's really not presented a great eye yet.

[RL3AO]

Is it developing a double eyewall? And if so does this inhibit development?

What makes you think that it is? And yes, that would be good news as it would probably prevent rapid deepening.

[dhweather]

882 is scary! Thanks for answering.

It was quite scary - I believe recon got in there and was not expecting what they found, 175MPH sustained, 882MB. Extremely intense hurricane.

[Windy]

weatherguru18, in the richest and most powerful country in the face of the Earth money shouldn't be an issue when it has to be used to save a human life. It shouldn't be an issue.

Actually, the goverment has a figure that each human life is worth -- currently around 7 million dollars. Figure a thousand people would certainly die with no evacuation -- then the breakeven would be seven billion dollars. If it costs less than seven billion to evacuate, then it'd be worth it, at least from the actuaries standpoint. Even if the chance of a thousand people dieing with no evacuation is 20%, you're still looking at a 1.4 billion breakeven -- and I'm guessing it costs a lot less than that. And really, potentially many more than 1000 lives are at risk if the storm impacts New Orleans and any of the levees fail.

[ConvergenceZone]

what do you think guys...85 mph on the 11:pm adisory? or do you think they will keep it at 80?

85 or 90, depending on how they interpret the flight-level winds.

nevermind Cantore on the weather channel just confirmed latest 11:00 pm advisory still at 80 mph...He seemed a bit shocked when he read it....He says he thought for sure it would have went up based on the pressure, also mentioned how good it looked on satellite....

[dhweather]

So...AFM...i am just asking...does 18 min north and 49 min west mean a more WNW movement? Or is it still NW? I am new to this so please forgive.

You are correct - WNW- think if it this way - for every .18 inches it moves north, it moves .49 inches west, thus WNW

[Seadootoo]

So...AFM...i am just asking...does 18 min north and 49 min west mean a more WNW movement? Or is it still NW? I am new to this so please forgive.

Gustav has moved more west than north, so.....WNW

[Portastorm]

what do you think guys...85 mph on the 11:pm adisory? or do you think they will keep it at 80?

85 or 90, depending on how they interpret the flight-level winds.

nevermind Cantore on the weather channel just confirmed latest 11:00 pm advisory still at 80 mph...He seemed a bit shocked when he read it....He says he thought for sure it would have went up based on the pressure, also mentioned how good it looked on satellite....

I dunno. Some of the recon data I saw supported stronger but who knows. Seems like NHC has played Gustav conservatively or "carefully" from the get-go.

[weunice]

Have there been any new model runs recently and is it shifting east or west?

[rockyman]

11pm track essentially the same until after landfall...then more west

[AL Chili Pepper]

Have there been any new model runs recently and is it shifting east or west?

Should be coming up in an hour or so. NAM is at 66 hours and GFS runs soon after that..

[tolakram]

Have there been any new model runs recently and is it shifting east or west?

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102615

Browse the end of the model thread.

[ConvergenceZone]

I dunno. Some of the recon data I saw supported stronger but who knows. Seems like NHC has played Gustav conservatively or "carefully" from the get-go.

I have a strong feeling that since they didn't up the winds on the 11:00 pm advisory, that this will be 95 mph on the next advisory.......

[Air Force Met]

So...AFM...i am just asking...does 18 min north and 49 min west mean a more WNW movement? Or is it still NW? I am new to this so please forgive.

That is about 290...which is WNW. The long term motion...the one the NHC will use (12 hrs) is still NW.

[JtSmarts]

Looks like they are predicting 115 kts now.

Forecast valid 01/0000z 25.7n 87.6w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 120sw 130nw.

[wxman57]

I measure a 3-hr movement toward 292 deg (barely WNW) at 5 kts. Only 15nm movement in 3 hrs.

[Innotech]

While water is good, my friend gave me a tip to just buy carbonated soda's with lots of Calories as it will give you needed calorie intake when there isn't much food to have.

Ill give you another tip. buy a ton of MRE'S. they are cheap and they are actually pretty good. if you get newer ones, the magnesium packet heats the food quite efficiently with just a bit of water. The older ones dont work so well. MRE's are pretty much a full meal, including candy like skittles, so its not fine dining but it will keep you well fed for those first few days.

[cycloneye]

I dunno. Some of the recon data I saw supported stronger but who knows. Seems like NHC has played Gustav conservatively or "carefully" from the get-go.

I have a strong feeling that since they didn't up the winds on the 11:00 pm advisory, that this will be 95 mph on the next advisory.......

NHC upped the winds to 80 mph.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I dunno. Some of the recon data I saw supported stronger but who knows. Seems like NHC has played Gustav conservatively or "carefully" from the get-go.

I have a strong feeling that since they didn't up the winds on the 11:00 pm advisory, that this will be 95 mph on the next advisory.......

NHC upped the winds to 80 mph.

also have a cat 4 in central gulf.

[Air Force Met]

I measure a 3-hr movement toward 292 deg (barely WNW) at 5 kts. Only 15nm movement in 3 hrs.

Well...that's exactly WNW. 292.5 is due WNW. 301 is NW.

The motion from 8 am this morning is 298...which is technically WNW. The motion from 5PM today has been solidly WNW at 292.