ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wx247]

Breathe...keep making feel better KWT!

The problem is for you all is that you will be north of the center (unless something really changes) and that the majority of the time you will be impacted by onshore winds. This will be where the storm surge is worst and is typically the stronger part of the storm than the south side of the center where offshore winds occur. It all comes down to where the center makes landfall as to how bad it will get in Corpus. If I were you, I would definitely be taking precautions!

Just my opinion, and neither John McCain, Barack Obama, or the NHC approve of this message.

[lrak]

So you guys and gals are fairly confident on a Brownsville landfall still? This slowing down and northerly turn is not going to happen, or affect Corpus?

Thanks,
karl

PLEASE do not base your decisions on the forecasts of posters here. Listen to the NHC and do what they are telling you to do. Some of the people here you are basing your opinions are CHILDREN, and most of the others have no meterology background at ALL.

Sure its GREAT and FUN to discuss and read the posts and opinions of others, but when deciding how to protect life and property, only listen to the NHC. They know what the are talking about.

I do Cold, but this board also helps especially for real time information and the opinions are weighed and averaged, I promise!

thanks for your concern.

[KWT]

Ed, yeah but look what it does on the next image and note the pressure...also look how tiny the region of higher winds are, its probably not represntative of the GFDL forecast, sort of an anomalous reading given how it weakens it way back down to 55kts again 6hrs later...

[sphelps8681]

My local mets out of Beaumont are saying it's going w 13 mph. TWC just said wnw at 13 mph. I thought it had slowed down. Why the delay in forecast.

[Stormcenter]

My local mets out of Beaumont are saying it's going w 13 mph. TWC just said wnw at 13 mph. I thought it had slowed down. Why the delay in forecast.

The media outlets are very reluctant to note a changes in forward speed or direction unless the NHC notes it or makes it official in their advisories.

[ColdFusion]

My local mets out of Beaumont are saying it's going w 13 mph. TWC just said wnw at 13 mph. I thought it had slowed down. Why the delay in forecast.

The media outlets are very reluctant to note a changes in forward speed or direction unless the NHC notes it or makes it official in their advisories.

As they should, imagine how crazy it would be if every outlet was trying to forecast their own opinions on direction and speed. Trying to micro-forecast a TC would be a nightmare. Thats OUR job here at S2K, hehe.

[Chacor]

ColdFusion: Thanks for putting it better than I ever could.

My completely unofficial, non-S2K or NWS/TPC/NHC backed best guess is that anywhere from the end of hurricane warnings north, that is Port O'Connor, are unlikely to see landfall. Winds are a different issue, of course.

This is only my opinion and should not be used for any life or death decision.

[KWT]

Thats the 12hr average speed and it has taken into account of the 16-17mph it was doing about 12hrs, when the next advisory comes out expect a further slow down in the estimated foward speed.

Also looks like the center is wobbling about quite a lot looking at recon, moving NW/NNW then jogging more to the W/WNW again.

[Chacor]

Also, remember that pressures on recon are extrapolated. Unless we get a dropsonde pressure report, they shouldn't be taken at face value.

[dhsgal]

Jim on Port Aransas did not help me out much either! My parents live one block of the beach and I know my son is out
there trying to catch some decent waves this morning!! Hopefully Jim won't jinx this one!

[HurricaneRobert]

You shouldn't get alarmed by all the predictions of doom here. Minus a few wobbles this thing has gone pretty much where NHC said it was going. Dolly has been remarkably well-forecast with such an imperfect science. It did not miss the Yucatan, and now landfall near the border seems most likely. You guys may be under a hurricane warning because it is too close to land, and they do not want an area to have a hurricane watch less than 24 hours before.

[dixiebreeze]

22/1145 UTC 23.6N 93.8W T3.5/3.5 DOLLY

[KWT]

I agree this is going pretty well along with the NHC forecast
HurricaneRobert, the only thing I do think could be uncertain is the strength of the system, i think thereis a rela chance of this getting stronger then the NHC currently think but we will have to wait and see, even if it does not get higher then 75kts, thats still a pretty powerful cat-1 hurricane.

[xironman]

Looking much more symmetrical on the visible today http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-95&zoom=1&info=vis&type=Animation&numframes=7&quality=90

[hurricanefloyd5]

jim is in Port Aransas where is this area located!!!!!!!!!!!!

About 20 NE across Corpus Christi Bay.

ok TYVM I never been to TEXAS before so thats good!!!!!!!!!!! This area maybe not get the full brunt of the Hurricane!!!!!!!!!!!

[Category 5]

So you guys and gals are fairly confident on a Brownsville landfall still? This slowing down and northerly turn is not going to happen, or affect Corpus?

Thanks,
karl

There is still some uncertainty there. So just in case you need to take your Hurricane precautions.

[mattpetre]

According to steering products it looks like the ridge has weakened significantly in the last 6 hours or so... my only question is whether there is a chance the ridging in the SW won't build back in quite as quickly as expected. The next 12 hours (and in my opinion more significantly, the next 4 to 6 hrs) of movement should tell the story as to where final landfall will be. Seems that with the weakness in place this is the storms chance to find its own way for just a bit.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[HURAKAN]

This is the windfield at the moment, but it should be expanding as the storm intensifies.

[funster]

This is the windfield at the moment, but it should be expanding as the storm intensifies.

Yeah, you can see by that graphic too how far up the coast these winds could be felt if it were to come in at the Mex/TX border.

[ronjon]

GFDL starts out far too weak this system at 1000mbs. Yep it does take the system NW for a little while then bends it back to the WNW but on this run it only just gets to hurricane status probably because it starts off to low.

Agreed, KWT, need to throw out the 06Z GFDL because its too weak in intensity. 06Z HWRF does a better job with intensity and brings the storm northward off the TX coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008072206-dolly04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Um, GFDL 6 hour intensity, for 12Z, a little while ago, was 80 knot winds at 10 meters. I doubt Dolly has 75 knot winds now, ergo, the GFDL isn't behind the curve.

In my humble opinion.

Yeah Ed, but it then drops it down to 55 and 60 kts thereafter so it definitely isn't reflecting a strengthening trend.