ATL: IKE Discussion

[Air Force Met]

I see a weakness in the gom...We were talking about this earlier, there is part of the ridge just east of TX now, and the other is the big ridge in the ATL sprawled out. Models forecast a "weakness" for another 24-36 hours.

The 00 UTC GFS doesn't see the weakness as given by the 000 500MB Vort:

Yes it does. You don't see the COL on the image you posted?

See the dot? Thats the COL between the two highs. That's the weakness.

[HURAKAN]

Sierra de los Órganos, Cuba

[jlauderdal]

If anyone wants to question the NHC's forecast track
for Ike just remember they NAILED Gustav's landfall 4 days out when he was still by Jamaica.

past performance is no guarantee of future results, this is a completely different setup..they did nail gustav but everyone did, it was very straightforward

i would be real concerned about intensity if i was in the cone, this doesn't look like a weakening gus

[hiflyer]

Frank...yup...fly me...grin. Benny Hill did the best spoof of it..

Last position plot upthread shows a right turn towards the flat plain...seen a lot of storms try to do that over the 25 years of living down in SoFla...some manage to pull it off. Watervapor suggest a top heavy config building...which lead some to think a more northerly track is coming.

My last storm for awhile...off to San Jose Calif next week for at least a few months working...can't see quakes from a water vapor loop...no fun. sigh.

Folks in Turks/Caicos got slammed...local tv station webcasting...had 2 hrs of really good video last night of the destruction on Grand Turk... http://www.mogulus.com/wiv4# which was close to the track. From the damage looks like some meso's rolled thru there along with the eyewall.

[jlauderdal]

I see a weakness in the gom...We were talking about this earlier, there is part of the ridge just east of TX now, and the other is the big ridge in the ATL sprawled out. Models forecast a "weakness" for another 24-36 hours.

The 00 UTC GFS doesn't see the weakness as given by the 000 500MB Vort:

Yes it does. You don't see the COL on the image you posted?

See the dot? Thats the COL between the two highs. That's the weakness.

COL= cut off low

[tolakram]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ution2.jpg

http://www.gmaltaruta.com/images/Fotos% ... 035web.JPG

Sierra de los Órganos, Cuba

It's simply beautiful down there, thanks.

[setxweathergal]

I am fascinated watching these storms unfold, yet I am terrified of them happening near or around me!! Probably what is making me more nervous than anything is the wait and see game. Hmmmm, lets see what all of the models do today then in the morning at 8am if they've shifted further north we'll all be headed north in a huge convoy! I know there's no sure way of knowing anything about this unpredictable storm...but someone give me an idea of just how far north it *could* curve if it does. Please!!

[haml8]

15 hours previous 300-850




Latest:



It is the lack of concentration of the lines near brownsville that I am looking at, is that the right thing to look at when reviewing the strength of the steering currents and the high?

[KWT]

The land is reasonably flat though there are some decent heights around the region where Ike should exit however given conditions are far more condusive in the region then what Gus was about to enter I don't think Ike is going to have quite the same issues as Gustav did, it will weaken and its eye will probably be totally gone, but nothing a good 12-18hrs over warm waters in the loop current can't fix.

[Air Force Met]

See the dot? Thats the COL between the two highs. That's the weakness.

COL= cut off low[/quote]

A COL is a saddlepoint or a neutral point in the wind field where two ridges or two trof meet...or all four meet.

[jlauderdal]

tight eye on the general, lets see what cooba does to ike, its moving right along so i think this is a major at landfall unlike a weakened gus

[VeniceInlet]

I am fascinated watching these storms unfold, yet I am terrified of them happening near or around me!! Probably what is making me more nervous than anything is the wait and see game. Hmmmm, lets see what all of the models do today then in the morning at 8am if they've shifted further north we'll all be headed north in a huge convoy! I know there's no sure way of knowing anything about this unpredictable storm...but someone give me an idea of just how far north it *could* curve if it does. Please!!

Keep watching this track and reading the NHC discussions. Nobody really knows that yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[deltadog03]

COL dosn't mean cut off low...COL is an area btwn 2 highs....You can clearly see the weakness. Now, once this starts to strengthen it should pick up steam and head right towards that weakness...

[jlauderdal]

See the dot? Thats the COL between the two highs. That's the weakness.

COL= cut off low

A COL is a saddlepoint or a neutral point in the wind field where two ridges or two trof meet...or all four meet.[/quote]

cut-off low—A cold low that has grown out of a trough and become displaced out of the basic westerly current and lies equatorward of this current.


we need a separate thread to discuss cut off lows . they actually are a big deal in the overall setup, at least around florida and the gulf they are.

[jlauderdal]

See the dot? Thats the COL between the two highs. That's the weakness.

COL= cut off low

A COL is a saddlepoint or a neutral point in the wind field where two ridges or two trof meet...or all four meet.[/quote]

were you referring to a cut off low?

[HURAKAN]

Inland.

[jasons2k]

Jeff Lidner's Tuesday AM update.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096

I encourage anyone on the TX coast to read this.

I agree with Jeff - and I still cannot shake Rita. I think the models have bottomed-out to the left and will now gradually shift right. This is what AFM laid out yesterday and I'm sticking to my guns for now.

Side note: wow, those pics are beautiful. If only we could visit there....

[jlauderdal]

COL dosn't mean cut off low...COL is an area btwn 2 highs....You can clearly see the weakness. Now, once this starts to strengthen it should pick up steam and head right towards that weakness...

we need to get this clear for the board, maybe afm was referring to something else, whats your definition of COL

The structure and evolution of an intense tropical cut-off low (COL)

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB says near CRP, but he had Ike hitting NYC last week, and CRP just happens to be the biggest city between Tampico and Houston.


He could be right.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan Ike is making its final trek across land for the next few days, I expect the eye will close up totally pretty soon but once its cleared from Cuba for about 12hrs then everything look inplace for some good solid strengthening, tomorrow is going to be a relaly interesting day and I suspect when Ike may get back upto major again but we shall see.

jlauderdal, yep tight little inner core there on that radar, keep em coming for as long as is possible please!