ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Innotech]

its not bravery so much as it is preparedness and Lafayette being well inland, the winds wont be as fierce.
Im more concerned that my mom is freaking out and really wants us to leave because she cant stand the sound of the winds.

[6SpeedTA95]

Someone had mentioned earlier that the NHC hasn't updated their tracks. I think given the history of this particular storm (slow mover) that they want to let the models run their course over night before any large adjustments are made.

Furthermore from a historical perspective these storms typically curve back to the north (east for landfall) substantially more than the models currently indicate (when moving with the substantial northerly component gustav currently has) and while each storm from a historical perspective has different variables, its hard to ignore history when looking at weather setups and potential storm movement.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is the latest and the BEST the eye has looked yet....It looks better even in the last 30 minutes....Wow, 85 or 90 mph maybe?? I'm staying up for the next update, I'm very curious...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

Cayman Brac just took a hit from an intensifying NE eyewall.

Gus' eye is now becoming apparent on satellite shots.

[Clint_TX]

any chance of a repeat of this storm's stall?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

[ConvergenceZone]

Cayman Brac just took a hit from an intensifying NE eyewall.

Gus' eye is now becoming apparent on satellite shots.

Sanibel, any estimates for the 2:00 AM update as far as winds are concerned??? Not hyping at all, but even in the last 30 minutes, this thing has bombed even more...

[SunnyThoughts]

LSU, MGC., and everyone else in the path...I wish all of you luck and will be thinking of you all. Take care of yourselves and your loved ones. Take plenty of pictures for insurance purposes, good luck and godspeed in your travels if you are leaving.

[AZRainman]

I'm starting to wonder about Hanna following in Gustav's wake.

Night sat here of both systems...twins?

[Bailey1777]

Does anybody have a link to a Cuban radar?

[sponger]

Birth of another monster right before our eyes. This storm is going to have a huge impact on the entire gulf of Mexico.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Innotech - NHC forecast, which I suspect is darned close to being right, has 90 mph winds inland near Lafayette with this after landfall.

Code: Select all

72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W    80 KT...INLAND

LFT is about 30º and 92º, so I'd be prepared for cat 1, maybe even Cat 2, winds inland, at least in gusts, if not sustained.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, any estimates for the 2:00 AM update as far as winds are concerned???

AZrainman's satellite shot shows a clear "fist" in the core. I would expect at least 90mph by 2am.

Next stop Isla Juventude, Cuba.

Agree Arizona. Hannah is tracking into same synoptic.

[Annie Oakley]

KWt you are always here-wher is your cohort Aric D? Miss the dynamic duo.....and when the heck do any of you Storm2k people sleep lol>

[ConvergenceZone]

AZRainman, and to answer your question, Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, so it shouldn't be a concern.....

[cycloneye]

Does anybody have a link to a Cuban radar?

Here you go.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[Recurve]

Innotech you must be brave.

however even though Katrina made it to Cat5 strength it made landfall as a Cat3. this storm could be 10 times worse than Katrina, but i'm nat saying it will. if it made landfall as Cat5 I could see ocean water passing I-10

That is called hysteria. Back that up with some science. Do you know how far I-10 is from the Gulf near New Orleans?

[x-y-no]

AZRainman, and to answer your question, Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, so it shouldn't be a concern.....

Even if it does weaken to TS in the Bahamas (which is below guidance, by the way) it could still intensify again. I wouldn't call the scenario of it following Gustav to be unreasonable.

[Innotech]

I10 is like 30 miles from the gulf. Now if you were talking about highway 90, I guess it might be possible, but still unlikely.

the possibility of 90 mph winds this far inland is a bit worrying admittedly.

[meteorologyman]

not sure where to post this but any way since this is a hot topic area,

what are the odds that we could have as many name storms as 2005, we just may have 2 named ones mid next week, and as of today we're not in September yet.

Gustav is getting bigger I think 40 % chance of rain this week should go a little higher. By the way North central fl is still under flood watches and warnings

[Ed Mahmoud]

Innotech you must be brave.

however even though Katrina made it to Cat5 strength it made landfall as a Cat3. this storm could be 10 times worse than Katrina, but i'm nat saying it will. if it made landfall as Cat5 I could see ocean water passing I-10

That is called hysteria. Back that up with some science. Do you know how far I-10 is from the Gulf near New Orleans?

I've driven I-10 enough to know it runs alongside Lake Ponchartrain a ways West of New Orleans, kind of like a causeway, and parts of New Orleans are at or below sea level.