ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dwg71]

jasons look at recon fix of center. Radar is not good for center fix that far out...its on NHC path.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose anyone have a webcam setup in bro. so we can get an up close and personal with dolly as she moves threw?????????

I posted about 10 locations with web cams along the coast in S. Texas in the Dolly prep and obs forum. They are great views also.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102011&start=20

Thank you very much for that info~!!!!!!!!!

[LAwxrgal]

Haven't been keeping up with Dolly too much due to work and other obligations... well, looks like the NHC is on the ball here with this forecast. She is a large system, so lots of people will be seeing some inclement weather from her. I hope the people in the warning area are taking heed and making preparations, as even a minimal hurricane is nothing to take lightly.

[stevetampa33614]

the "arc" on the radar presentation is the northern eyewall as detected on radar (note: way up from the surface).

center is well north of the forecast points:


Shot at 2008-07-22

Thats pretty Drat cool. Is that a program or the local site. If so can you provide a link?

[srainhoutx]

the "arc" on the radar presentation is the northern eyewall as detected on radar (note: way up from the surface).

center is well north of the forecast points:


Shot at 2008-07-22

Appears that the ridge has weakened and some effects of ULL over W TX are having some very interesting effects on Dolly.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dose anyone have a webcam setup in bro. so we can get an up close and personal with dolly as she moves threw?????????

I posted about 10 locations with web cams along the coast in S. Texas in the Dolly prep and obs forum. They are great views also.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102011&start=20

Thank you very much for that info~!!!!!!!!!

[mattpetre]

I don't see a 100 mile shift to the N. from current track being out of the question if the ridge from the West doesn't build in pretty quickly. I don't think Corpus is in the clear as far as a possible hit from the northern eyewall yet. Don't let your guard down anywhere in the cone or just outside it (for that matter.)

Disclaimer: This is a personal, non-professional forecast (well not really a forecast, just a statement of possibilities.)

[jasons2k]

Thats pretty Drat cool. Is that a program or the local site. If so can you provide a link?

It's GRLevel3 - it's a program and I have lots of customizations.

DWG - for very weak system radar is bad and yes not very good this far out, but for a stacked system you can track the center pretty well - at least its movement.

[Chacor]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[stevetampa33614]

So is there any consensus on strengthening?

[A1A]

Eyewall?

[Chacor]

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

[RL3AO]

Eyewall?

Yes it has a partial eyewall.

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

[Smurfwicked]

Eyewall?

Yes it has a partial eyewall.

If that is true doesn't that place the center much further north than the current NHC's placement as jasons has mentioned??

[jhamps10]

quote from NHC:

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS..

humm I wonder if there was some conflict on to keep it as a ts or go on a hurricane.

[HurricaneRobert]

the "arc" on the radar presentation is the northern eyewall as detected on radar (note: way up from the surface).

center is well north of the forecast points:


Shot at 2008-07-22

You really need a disclaimer on that. I don't see the center anywhere near that, and a lot of people reading this will think the storm will take a sharp right turn soon.

[RL3AO]

If that is true doesn't that place the center much further north than the current NHC's placement as jasons has mentioned??

Thats an old image. But recon said the eyewall was still there and ragged.

[Chacor]

quote from NHC:

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS..

humm I wonder if there was some conflict on to keep it as a ts or go on a hurricane.

SFMR is not 100% reliable; there are other factors in determining intensity.