ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cheezyWXguy]

Ok seems to me with a small hurricane wind field it looks like again tampa will dodge a bullet. the shield remains in place. it will barely be a cat 1 if that. like i said just an inconvenient storm for my area. sorry sanibel a little more serious for you down there.

IF you are wrong and it does ride the ridge up the coastline your neck of the woods will get the worse. Keep in mind the storm had been predicted at many points to head up towards the Big Bend area. I would review my plans at a minimum.

Well i live 10 miles east from the coast of hernando beach. I rent a room from my landlady who guess what has no plywood or storm shutters. But that is ok. I will be called to hang out at the hospital where i work if a hurricane comes. if its a ts then i can just work my regular shift. I know things can change on a dime but this is too predictable and goes against the odds of the riding straight up the coast. There is a reason the models are shifting east which is more typical. So I am minimally prepared but I am far from feeling like this is going to be a big deal for my area. After it crosses cuba then I will let you all know if my gut feeling is accurate or deceiving me.

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

[AdamFirst]

I don't think we're going to break out the shutters for this one. We did it for Ernesto two years ago and it was a colossal waste of time.

We had a thunderstorm in Port Saint Lucie yesterday that is likely comparable to what we will get on Tuesday.

[jinftl]

probably be best to prepare for an 'inconvenience'....by that i mean possibly losing power. Tropical storm force winds can easily knock power out....may not be 'the big one' or anything like that....but we both live in florida....no a/c in august for even a few days is rough!

Ok seems to me with a small hurricane wind field it looks like again tampa will dodge a bullet. the shield remains in place. it will barely be a cat 1 if that. like i said just an inconvenient storm for my area. sorry sanibel a little more serious for you down there.

IF you are wrong and it does ride the ridge up the coastline your neck of the woods will get the worse. Keep in mind the storm had been predicted at many points to head up towards the Big Bend area. I would review my plans at a minimum.

Well i live 10 miles east from the coast of hernando beach. I rent a room from my landlady who guess what has no plywood or storm shutters. But that is ok. I will be called to hang out at the hospital where i work if a hurricane comes. if its a ts then i can just work my regular shift. I know things can change on a dime but this is too predictable and goes against the odds of the riding straight up the coast. There is a reason the models are shifting east which is more typical. So I am minimally prepared but I am far from feeling like this is going to be a big deal for my area. After it crosses cuba then I will let you all know if my gut feeling is accurate or deceiving me.

[Bgator]

No models are shifting significantly west except for the BAMM's which should not be looked at.

[AdamFirst]

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

What models are you looking at

[Evil Jeremy]

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

Only the BAM and NOGAPS models are shifting west. The other models are actually east of the NHC line in day's 4 and 5.

[Sanibel]

Bit of a gaff with that center before sorry. Getting the carbon out after waking up. Fay's on the move now under Watkin's center. We're in the business phase now as far as Florida. I agree with weakness watch over Cuba.

[robbielyn]

not west toward the coast way west toward the panhandle. this isn't a huge system if it hits pc or points west we could get dry sinking air over our area. there is just way too much uncertainty i am keeping a close eye on it because it's my hobby. but i get discouraged (a part of me does) when we can't seem to get a hurricane here. (the sane part of me will be relieved if it misses us) I guess it's just the idea of it. I would not be at all surprised that if it were to ride up the coast, it would be a ts we have had that plenty of times before so i am not ruling out the possibility of a n track just a n track and a hurricane at the same time and no I don't wish for a cat 4 or 5 either just want to see a little flying debris thats all. If all its going to do is rain then we get those here everyday. I'd rather have sunshine and go to beach

[cheezyWXguy]

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

What models are you looking at

Nogaps and ukmet remain in far northern florida, Bam's are sensing a west turn(though not reliable) wrf appears SLIGHTLY north of last night. GFDL appears the same as last night. I dont see too many models shifting east, thats for sure.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be moving more northwest right now though.

[CronkPSU]

home depot in the northwest Orlando suburbs was dead this morning, got all my batteries and supplies but no one is taking this seriously, still plenty of generators and everything else on the shelves...can't say I blame people as this storm looks to be nothing more than an "inconvenience" as one previous poster mentioned, more like a normal strong afternoon thunderstorm that lasts for a while...will be good for the lakes though, hope Georgia and the folks up there get some rain out of this

[deltadog03]

AFM, I agree with you! She might be in trouble if thats the LLC...There are barely any cloud elements moving west to east up there. WXMAN, got bones on standby?? lol

[NEXRAD]

While I know most don't use the NAM with tropical forecasting, the 12Z NAM did shift east, still awaiting the rest of the 12Z's though. Furthermore, there's a pretty clear channel on satellite imagery indicating where the ridge weakness is present. Generally it's from about 22.0N, 80.5W north-northwest to 25.0N, 80.0W aloft, a bit west of that nearer the surface. As Fay progresses north and as additional troughing develops with the Nrn and Srn jet streams, the storm should progress along a track that's a blend between the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF. This is a bit right from the TPC's previous forecast.

- Jay

[Jason_B]

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

Only a few unreliable outliers going far to the west, the consensus is right in the NHC cone. Fay is no threat to anybody west of Apalachicola at this point.

[cpdaman]

Many models are shifting west. Only the NHC track for some reason is shifting east

What models are you looking at

Nogaps and ukmet remain in far northern florida, Bam's are sensing a west turn(though not reliable) wrf appears SLIGHTLY north of last night. GFDL appears the same as last night. I dont see too many models shifting east, thats for sure.

perhaps they did not have a good initialization point , since the center appears to be 20.5 78.6

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

The official center is tracking down the NHC track for those looking at the models.

[NDG]

Convection is increasing near the LLC. Still nothing close to what Fay looked like earlier this morning around 3 AM.

[cpdaman]

she has a good little area of water to work with, i'm patiently watching for some convection to go BOOM to her south (probably by this afternoon) and she could surprise to the upside by this evening (given the current "she looks pathetic if that's her llc trend"

great shot hurrakan (gives a better sense of where she's located even when compared to the other loops IMO), and the radar on page 297 show's her nicely as wel.

[jinftl]

you are just being honest....and no doubt you are not alone in what you wrote.

i found the experience of wilma...which gave my area cat1/cat2 winds fascinating...by that i mean the actual extreme weather conditions....but the aftermath is horrendous. No power for 2 weeks...there was nothing at all remotely interesting or exciting about the 14 day aftermath of an utterly awesome monday morning (plus the $12,000 condo assessment made it a very costly few hours!)

not west toward the coast way west toward the panhandle. this isn't a huge system if it hits pc or points west we could get dry sinking air over our area. there is just way too much uncertainty i am keeping a close eye on it because it's my hobby. but i get discouraged (a part of me does) when we can't seem to get a hurricane here. (the sane part of me will be relieved if it misses us) I guess it's just the idea of it. I would not be at all surprised that if it were to ride up the coast, it would be a ts we have had that plenty of times before so i am not ruling out the possibility of a n track just a n track and a hurricane at the same time and no I don't wish for a cat 4 or 5 either just want to see a little flying debris thats all. If all its going to do is rain then we get those here everyday. I'd rather have sunshine and go to beach