ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Hate to be out in this on my Dingy!


OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

CORRECTED MIDDLE GULF FOR SUN NIGHT

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ084-300930-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...CORRECTED
1030 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 22N...

.TONIGHT...N OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. S
OF 25N NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT...BUILDING 4 TO 6 FT WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM
SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER OF GUSTAV. HIGHEST
WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT...INCREASING TO 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT SAT
NIGHT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS 25 FT TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE S
OF 26N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 33 KT LATE SAT.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 LATE SAT NIGHT. FROM 26N TO
28N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. N OF 28N NE TO E
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS S OF 26N.
.SUN THROUGH MON...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS...AND 100
NM SW QUADRANT. HIGHEST WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT...INCREASING
TO 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT SUN NIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 110 KT GUSTS
135 KT LATE MON. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. HIGHEST SEAS 28 TO 38 FT. ELSEWHERE
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS ENTIRE AREA.
.TUE...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N
W OF 88W IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING TO SE TO S 20 TO 25
KT LATE. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT...SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATE. REMAINDER OF AREA SE TO S
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 TO 8
FT...SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE.
.WED...N OF 28N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FROM
25N TO 28N SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. S OF 25N E
TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NE TO E. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FAR NW PART.

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Sanibel]

Keep watching the "Punta Del Este" radar on the Cuban site. Gus will track right towards it through tonight.

[meteorologyman]

I10 is like 30 miles from the gulf. Now if you were talking about highway 90, I guess it might be possible, but still unlikely.

the possibility of 90 mph winds this far inland is a bit worrying admittedly.

Oh I thought it was like near the Gulf, my bad. then it looks like you got front seat to see some action w/o harm....hopefully

[ROCK]

Innotech - NHC forecast, which I suspect is darned close to being right, has 90 mph winds inland near Lafayette with this after landfall.

Code: Select all

72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W    80 KT...INLAND

LFT is about 30º and 92º, so I'd be prepared for cat 1, maybe even Cat 2, winds inland, at least in gusts, if not sustained.

MEOW model tend to give you a better idea........

[ConvergenceZone]

AZRainman, and to answer your question, Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, so it shouldn't be a concern.....

Even if it does weaken to TS in the Bahamas (which is below guidance, by the way) it could still intensify again. I wouldn't call the scenario of it following Gustav to be unreasonable.

x-y-no , but if it moved into the carib, wouldn't the upwelling of Gustav kill it?? That's got to be churning up some cooler waters as it moves on...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Innotech - NHC forecast, which I suspect is darned close to being right, has 90 mph winds inland near Lafayette with this after landfall.

Code: Select all

72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W    80 KT...INLAND

LFT is about 30º and 92º, so I'd be prepared for cat 1, maybe even Cat 2, winds inland, at least in gusts, if not sustained.

MEOW model tend to give you a better idea........

I assume NHC used some version of that to forecast that inland wind speed.

[gboudx]

I10 is like 30 miles from the gulf. Now if you were talking about highway 90, I guess it might be possible, but still unlikely.

the possibility of 90 mph winds this far inland is a bit worrying admittedly.

Oh I thought it was like near the Gulf, my bad. then it looks like you got front seat to see some action w/o harm....hopefully

Actually, parts of 10 flooded for Katrina when the 17th street canal levee broke. It's the infamous part that goes under a train bridge.

[CrazyC83]

In southeast Louisiana, you have to get to I-12 to be safe. The entire southern part below that is capable of flooding in a major hurricane.

In south-central and southwestern Louisiana, most places below (and even a few above) I-10 are low enough to flood in storm surge as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

AZRainman, and to answer your question, Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, so it shouldn't be a concern.....

Even if it does weaken to TS in the Bahamas (which is below guidance, by the way) it could still intensify again. I wouldn't call the scenario of it following Gustav to be unreasonable.

x-y-no , but if it moved into the carib, wouldn't the upwelling of Gustav kill it?? That's got to be churning up some cooler waters as it moves on...

If it followed Gustav closely in the Gulf, quite a bit, but the Caribbean has warm water deep enough to have sustained Mitch as a nearly stationary Cat 5 for several days. Except for the Loop Current, the warm water isn't as deep in the Gulf. But if it followed a different path, and avoided the upwelled water, it wouldn't be as big an effect.

[6SpeedTA95]

AZRainman, and to answer your question, Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm, so it shouldn't be a concern.....

Even if it does weaken to TS in the Bahamas (which is below guidance, by the way) it could still intensify again. I wouldn't call the scenario of it following Gustav to be unreasonable.

x-y-no , but if it moved into the carib, wouldn't the upwelling of Gustav kill it?? That's got to be churning up some cooler waters as it moves on...

Tropical storms/hurricanes definately churn up the water. But keep in mind Rita moved in fairly soon after Katrina. 4 weeks apart? Maybe 3? So its not out of the question to have a couple of strong storms take simlar paths back to back.

[Innotech]

I think he maybe meant closer to the expected landfall area. I10 near Lafayette is on high ground and not in any danger of flooding.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gustav now see's fairly clearly. I will predict that recon finds pressure near 966 millibars and max flight level winds near 94 knots. We will see, starting to look like a peak of a season storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Gustav is looking better as several hours earlier. Looks like NHC is now forecasting that Gustav will be a Category 4 hurricane. It would not surprise me if it becomes a Category 5 hurricane.

[jinftl]

Feeling fringe of effects of gustav for sure in south florida....excerpt of NWS Miami Discussion


...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT, MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS, AS WELL AS BISCAYNE
BAY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH MOVE ONSHORE
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 40 MPH TONIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=MFLAFDMFL&version=0

[6SpeedTA95]

x-y-no , but if it moved into the carib, wouldn't the upwelling of Gustav kill it?? That's got to be churning up some cooler waters as it moves on...

If it followed Gustav closely in the Gulf, quite a bit, but the Caribbean has warm water deep enough to have sustained Mitch as a nearly stationary Cat 5 for several days. Except for the Loop Current, the warm water isn't as deep in the Gulf. But if it followed a different path, and avoided the upwelled water, it wouldn't be as big an effect.[/quote]
YES thats correct finally someone who doesn't just look at SST's but TCHP, the entire depth of the warm water makes a difference for slow moving and/or multiple storms!

[THead]

How is this still only 80mph?

What is it with storms this year taking so long for the wind speeds to catch up to the pressure?

NHC mentioned concentric wind maxima and light undercutting shear as reasons for slow strengthening at this time, but that once the storm becomes better organized could undergo RI.

What is concentric wind maxima? I've seen that a couple of times today, and its a new one on me, haven't heard that phrase before. Thanks.

[crazycajuncane]

Haven't posted yet tonight, but here's what's going on around Lafayette.

Good luck finding gas. 8/10 gas stations I passed by on the way home and to a friend of mines were already out of gas. After Sunday it will be nearly impossible to get gasoline. Contraflow is expected Sunday. I put gas on Tuesday, but already down to half a tank.

Local met Rob Perillo seems worried and that is worrying me. We have no plans to go, because we live far enough inland. Plus he was saying if you are planning on leaving to leave the state. Storm may slow down after landfall anywhere.

He also mentioned if the storm goes 10-15 miles west of the current projection we'd see significant storm surge. I keep telling myself the storm is 3 days away and a lot is bound to change.

I live in an apartment and I'm going stay with my parents in a brick home with a generator and lots of stocked food and water. Right now we hope for big changes. We are prepared for the worst, but not knowing what the worst will be really sucks.

Please for those of you who like to talk about your thoughts about what might or might not happen please remember that a lot of people are on here for facts and real information. We have a lot of visitors on the board and LOTS of information going.

Thanks everyone and best wishes to all those in the path!

[thetruesms]

YES thats correct finally someone who doesn't just look at SST's but TCHP, the entire depth of the warm water makes a difference for slow moving and/or multiple storms!

pfft, what does an Oklahoman know about tropical stuff? 6speed, I finally bit the bullet and quit lurking.

I think another important thing you bring up in your post is how quickly the storms are moving. A plodding Gustav will create a much different scenario for a storm following behind it than a Gustav that is trucking right through.

[Recurve]

Hope you'll all be safe. Lafayette should be fine, far enough inland, though there's always the risk of tornadoes and some wind damage, but at least you are well away from the coast.

My thoughts and prayers with everyone in Acadiana. Hope to see you all at Grant Street once this season is over.

[AJC3]

How is this still only 80mph?

What is it with storms this year taking so long for the wind speeds to catch up to the pressure?

NHC mentioned concentric wind maxima and light undercutting shear as reasons for slow strengthening at this time, but that once the storm becomes better organized could undergo RI.

What is concentric wind maxima? I've seen that a couple of times today, and its a new one on me, haven't heard that phrase before. Thanks.

Best way I can think of to explain this is to use a dartboard analogy.



Think of the location of the doubles and trip rings. Instead of the winds increasing steadily toward the ring around the bullseye...you have wind maxima at both the doubles and trip rings.