ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[JPmia]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

sorry i just don't see it

also fay appears still steady WNW now

neither do i....but it is a nice sat loop though!

[deltadog03]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

There is certainly activity down there but the low level winds out of it seem to be flowing northeast.

It almost looks like that area is rotating the opposite direction(?)

Thats just great outflow...The ridge is still sitting on top of that.

[ekal]

One burst of convection near the center is not a trend upwards in intensity. Let's see what recon finds and how the satellite presentation continues to evolve, but as of now it looks poor.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

That is confirmed using VIS and IR. Much of the convection is occurring in the eastern semicircle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see nothing west of Jamaica either.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am not saying i9t will happen but if it wanted to it can pull a Hurricane charlie STRENGTH wise and look where he hit!!!!!!!!!!

[cpdaman]

Sorry, folks FAY is not looking better. The LLC is beginning to race that blow up of convection...Seriously folks...take a peak at whats next to jamaica..

umm does anyone concur....promets........

[Dean4Storms]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

I don't think so Delta, the LLC is up where the NHC has it and it is very evident.

[ekal]

I am not saying i9t will happen but if it wanted to it can pull a Hurricane charlie STRENGTH wise and look where he hit!!!!!!!!!!

This storm is absolutely not going to "pull a Hurricane Charley strength wise." Charley experienced very little land interaction with Cuba and none with Hispaniola. Charley also did not have an LLC that outpaced much of its convection.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

The latest pic at 11:32 AM:

[deltadog03]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

I don't think so Delta, the LLC is up where the NHC has it and it is very evident.

I know where the LLC..lol I am just saying that was robbing some of the southerly inflow into the system.

[jlauderdal]

I am not saying i9t will happen but if it wanted to it can pull a Hurricane charlie STRENGTH wise and look where he hit!!!!!!!!!!

This storm is absolutely not going to "pull a Hurricane Charley strength wise." Charley experienced very little land interaction with Cuba and none with Hispaniola. Charley also did not have an LLC that outpaced much of its convection.

you have no clue what it could do tomorrow, im not saying it will bomb out but nhc doesnt know and you dont either

[Sanibel]

A ULL that shears at 12 knots becomes a ULL that vents at 12 knots once it gets to the SW.

[Dean4Storms]

I am beginning to think that there was a split that took place as Fay hit the Mountains of DR/Haiti with the mid level circulation riding southward around the island instead of going north around it where it would have also had to go against the ridge whereas the LLC went around the north side and we've seen the two areas of energy ever since leading to the two competing areas of convection.

[NDG]

Hold on...Go to the 1km SAT. site...I think someone just pulled out the challenge flag...Take a peak down there just west of jamaica....That has what looks like a WELL defined LLC. Turn up the speed a little bid and watch that thing go to town...Theres where most of your inflow is going..

I don't think so Delta, the LLC is up where the NHC has it and it is very evident.

I know where the LLC..lol I am just saying that was robbing some of the southerly inflow into the system.

Please admit that is not doing so anymore,

[jlauderdal]

FYI for Se florida folks, there is some healthy convection offshore heading our way, PWATS are climbing folks

[deltadog03]

Bingo!!!!!

[Sanibel]

True Dean but this could be a d-min that blasts out with a new burst over 31* SST's. However, it is still too close to land for big action.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nice little blowup going now just NE of the center. I think we just whitnessed a reorganization, which is still under way. If you zoom out a bit and look at a large sat pic, you can see that the new convection appears to be going almost due W, and should wrap around the center that NHC pegged in the 11am advisory.

Overall structure looks good, inner core structure not yet defined, but getting a little better than 2 hours ago.

[ekal]

I am not saying i9t will happen but if it wanted to it can pull a Hurricane charlie STRENGTH wise and look where he hit!!!!!!!!!!

This storm is absolutely not going to "pull a Hurricane Charley strength wise." Charley experienced very little land interaction with Cuba and none with Hispaniola. Charley also did not have an LLC that outpaced much of its convection.

you have no clue what it could do tomorrow, im not saying it will bomb out but nhc doesnt know and you dont either

A 130-knot cyclone? Look, I can understand if it strengthens into a hurricane. Maybe even 75 knots. But let's be reasonable. Charley had an exceptional UL outflow channel as it phased with the trof to its north. It spent only a few hours over Western Cuba, and it had an inner core when it made landfall in Cuba. This storm has none of those conditions working in favor of it. I think forecasts of a major hurricane at this point are flat-out unnecessary. It would alarm the public.