ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

how does it "lose" this acreage? Is it through flooding? I went down to Grand Isle this year as I said before and by the way people talk about Louisianas coastline youd think you could just sit and watch it disappear.

The whole area is literally sinking.

[crazycajuncane]

how does it "lose" this acreage? Is it through flooding? I went down to Grand Isle this year as I said before and by the way people talk about Louisianas coastline youd think you could just sit and watch it disappear.

Probably disappearing marsh and barrier islands are not something you are going to notice on a daily basis. I've run across some neat maps on this before. There are initiatives to save the coastline with old Christmas trees and stuff like that.

[Recurve]

how does it "lose" this acreage? Is it through flooding? I went down to Grand Isle this year as I said before and by the way people talk about Louisianas coastline youd think you could just sit and watch it disappear.

Saltwater intrustion = dead marsh plants = loss of land -- it just dissolves into the gulf, and the sea pushes farther inland.
The mighty mississip created all the land nearly from Cairo to the birdsfoot. The Atchafalaya, the Chandeleurs, Vermillion Bay, are all former outflows of the river. With no more silt being deposited, the sea reclaims what was hers.

[CajunMama]

Hope you'll all be safe. Lafayette should be fine, far enough inland, though there's always the risk of tornadoes and some wind damage, but at least you are well away from the coast.

My thoughts and prayers with everyone in Acadiana. Hope to see you all at Grant Street once this season is over.

South lafayette isn't that far inland where several of us members live. Where i live i was 10 miles as you drive from where the rita storm surge ended so less than that as the crow flies. There's been a population explosion in southern lafayette parish with alot of concrete poured. If you look on google map lafayette extends to between broussard & youngsville. Look south and we're not that far away from the bay.

[sponger]

Nice picture of Wilma. I will never forget waking up and hearing the pressure reading.

For those of you considering an evac, a few pieces of advice.

Local evac is better than long distance.

Get out of low lying areas and move inland 30-50 miles and hunker down in a sturdy structure.

Dont evac in the middle of the day!!! Take a late nap and hit the road after 9:00. (My time is 2am but I am a night owl. Sitting in traffic for 12 hours uses all of your gas and patience!

If your in a sturdy structure out of a flood zone wait it out! Max winds are at the coast., and are confined to a small area.

Finally, if you have the money and time, go take a vacation! No Power and down trees makes for a miserable couple of days afterward.

If you are in a flood zone, watch Katrina Clips until you recognize the danger and convince your self to leave!!!


I say this from experience. Alot of people will panic and hit the roads all at once!

[crazycajuncane]

Hope you'll all be safe. Lafayette should be fine, far enough inland, though there's always the risk of tornadoes and some wind damage, but at least you are well away from the coast.

My thoughts and prayers with everyone in Acadiana. Hope to see you all at Grant Street once this season is over.

South lafayette isn't that far inland where several of us members live. Where i live i was 10 miles as you drive from where the rita storm surge ended so less than that as the crow flies. There's been a population explosion in southern lafayette parish with alot of concrete poured. If you look on google map lafayette extends to between broussard & youngsville. Look south and we're not that far away from the bay.

This is true. Rob Perillo once mentioned given the right conditions that we'd have 3 feet of water in southern Lafayette Parish. I believe this was a storm coming up Vermilion Bay at Cat. 4 or 5 strength. He did a whole deal on this. He hasn't mentioned a Lafayette storm surge lately so I don't think it's something to worry about.

[cpdaman]

poor little caymen appears to be in eye wall per cuban radar

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Recurve]

Sorry to go OT, but it's so important to the Pelican State's survival: Thousands of canals cut for oil and gas exploration through the marsh allowed saltwater to move in and kill the vegetation, leaving nothing to hold the ground, and with no new soil deposited because of the leveeing of the river, the land is dying and not being replenished, and the sea simply takes it away.

You practically can sit and watch the coastline wash away. There are cemeteries down Bayou Lafouche where the graves were uncovered by waves 15 years ago.

If the plants along a freshwater marsh coastline are dead and the sea is lapping against it, it is doomed. If there were no oil and gas and ship canals perforating the Louisiana coastline, the whole process would have been much slower.

Not a political statement, the science says this. But back to the storm, which is certainly getting its act together.
As bad as the track looks now though, don't forget that three days from now, that black line is likely to have a bend in it. No an official forecast or prediction, I'm just saying that the synoptics can change and bend that track more westward or eastward still.

You have to be prepared if you are near the coast, but don't panic or despair.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

969.5mb pressure and top winds in the weakest part of 84kts

[CrazyC83]

969.5mb pressure and top winds in the weakest part of 84kts

That supports a 75 kt intensity, but it will likely be higher in the NE quad - perhaps Cat 2 right now.

[Recurve]

I also don't mean to minimize the chance of flooding in Lafayette Parish. It is close to the coast, I think the river at that lift bridge on Pinhook can easily flood, but it's not the kind of storm surge flood that scoured the coast at Pass Christian, obviously.

I forget what river that is. Is it the Teche that runs through Lafayette near the Hilton?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

that pressure supports a 90kts cat 2

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

[TexasSam]

Ok guys,
I haven't posted yet tonight because I have been boarding up and packing all of the belongings that I cannot afford to lose. If this track is pretty close to being right I fully expect to come home to either nothing left worth salvaging or a well flooded home. I live in Lafourche Parish below the interccoastal waterway and though we have levees they were topped in several places when Rita passed by on her way to Cameron. Areas outside of the levees were torn up pretty bad. I want to comment on the sniping and back and forth banter on this thread.

PLEASE STOP. I understand this is a discussion board and that the nature of it is to discuss possibilities, however for the past 4 years I have looked to S2K as a source of information that is usually ahead of both the NHC and major media outlets. Over the coming days more and more people will be making decisions to protect life and property and the stress level will be out of sight. It helps nothing to try and decipher trends and weather information amid page after page of meaningless comments about who was at fault for the Katrina mess, why the NHC does what it does and why the NOGAPS and UKMET are crackheads.

In all seriousness many people ,including myself, like to use this board as a source of information in addition to official announcements to try and reduce stress and to keep up to date.

Please do not take this post as a bash against anyone or a rant about current rudeness or message board etiquette. It is simply a request to try and stick to relevant information concerning Gustav and what is happening with the storm now. As the weekend progress this will become more and more important.

Thanks,
Tim

Well said, nothing good comes out of nearly 700 people saying "nw or wnw" over time I have learned to skim through the pages. For new people this is going to be tough to understand. I think long about Noon Saturday the fun talk on here will get much more serious, seems it did both Katrina, and Rita.

[thetruesms]

I'm not a pro met, but I'll take a stab at that.

Maybe because the stronger bands are robbing the center of the storm of the juice needed to intensify, and instead it is just using that juice to keep its outer bands strong?


Cool thanks. Is there an easy explanation as to why that would inhibit strenghtening?

That's a pretty good thought. If I remember my research from my capstone project correctly, it's more related to the associated pressure fields. Concentric wind maxima will have corresponding concentric pressure minima. The result is that the outer eyewall is induced to contract inward, and the inner eyewall to expand outward. The result is a somewhat flattened pressure gradient, which will cause weakening or at least impede intensification.

[crazycajuncane]

I also don't mean to minimize the chance of flooding in Lafayette Parish. It is close to the coast, I think the river at that lift bridge on Pinhook can easily flood, but it's not the kind of storm surge flood that scoured the coast at Pass Christian, obviously.

I forget what river that is. Is it the Teche that runs through Lafayette near the Hilton?

That's the Vermilion River.

[CrazyC83]

that pressure supports a 90kts cat 2

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

The winds don't though (yet).

[Recurve]

Recon very close to the center.

[thetruesms]

that pressure supports a 90kts cat 2

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

I guess it's probably important to note that it is not pressure that supports certain wind speeds, but pressure gradients. While pressure-wind speed show good correlation, it is not causative. So a certain pressure does not necessarily require a certain wind speed.

[CrazyC83]

that pressure supports a 90kts cat 2

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

I guess it's probably important to note that it is not pressure that supports certain wind speeds, but pressure gradients. While pressure-wind speed show good correlation, it is not causative. So a certain pressure does not necessarily require a certain wind speed.

A small storm adjoining a powerful ridge will have a much higher pressure than a larger storm in a monsoon pattern or with a large concentric structure.

The winds currently support a 75 kt intensity.

[Solaris]

Cayman Islands weather reports:
http://www.weatherincayman.com

Grand Cayman (50 miles west of the center) rougly has 25 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 50 mph (peak 60 mph)